Analysis: Charles Johnson vs Ramazan Temirov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Johnson to Win

Score: 4
Odds:
Charles Johnson: 108
Ramazan Temirov: -138

Charles Johnson's Breakdown

Johnson brings veteran savvy into this flyweight clash with a 17-6 record. His recent four-fight win streak shows he's hitting stride, with notable victories over Sumudaerji, Joshua Van, Jake Hadley, and Azat Maksum.

"InnerG" has evolved from a defensive fighter into a more complete threat. Against Sumudaerji, he adapted his gameplan mid-fight, increasing pressure after his corner urged aggression in round two. That adaptability was also on display against Jake Hadley, where Johnson switched stances to bypass Hadley's elbow parrying defense before landing a knockdown with a straight right.

His knockout of Joshua Van came from a perfectly timed uppercut that dropped Van instantly. Johnson's ability to manage distance is complemented by his exceptional takedown defense - something Muhammad Mokaev discovered when repeatedly taking Johnson down only to watch him spring back to his feet.

Johnson excels at pressure fighting, using feints to create openings, and has developed decent clinch work. His 70-inch reach gives him a 7-inch advantage over Temirov, which should be critical in keeping the dangerous newcomer at bay.

Ramazan Temirov's Breakdown

Temirov enters with an 18-3 record and explosive power that led to his UFC debut knockout win over CJ Vergara in October. That first-round finish showcased his aggressive approach - quickly closing distance to unleash powerful combinations.

Temirov's game centers around his heavy hands, as evidenced by his 15.8 knockdowns per fight. He's clearly looking to turn every exchange into a finishing opportunity. Against Vergara, he smartly applied pressure against the cage before unloading the fight-ending flurry.

His striking numbers are impressive - landing 8.1 significant strikes per minute with a 75% defensive rate. However, his UFC sample size is tiny, with just one fight to analyze. Despite landing an impressive 39 strikes in his Vergara fight, he also showed a willingness to absorb shots to deliver his own.

The major concern for Temirov is his reach disadvantage and lack of UFC-level experience. At just 63 inches, he gives up significant distance to Johnson, which could force him to overextend when looking for those knockout blows.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach advantage: Johnson's 7-inch reach advantage will be crucial in dictating distance against the shorter but more explosive Temirov
• Experience gap: Johnson has faced much higher-level competition, including wrestlers like Mokaev and strikers like Sumudaerji
• Power vs. technique: Temirov brings raw knockout power but Johnson's technical adaptability might neutralize it
• Footwork factor: Johnson's movement and stance switching, as seen against Hadley, could frustrate Temirov's forward pressure
• Cardio consideration: Johnson's proven three-round endurance against UFC competition gives him an edge if Temirov's aggression doesn't yield early results

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Johnson comes from several key factors: - Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 4.0 points, reflecting Johnson's perfect 4-0 run over his last four fights - Odds boosted Johnson's chances by 2.0 despite being the underdog at +108 - Reach advantage of 7 inches added 2.0 to Johnson's score - Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight contributed 2.0 points, showing Johnson's willingness to mix his attack - Striking Defense Percentage worked against Johnson, decreasing his score by 2.0

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Johnson's fights. The model correctly picked him to beat Sumudaerji, Jimmy Flick, and Zhalgas Zhumagulov, but incorrectly predicted him to lose to Joshua Van, Jake Hadley, and Azat Maksum. This inconsistency suggests Johnson often outperforms expectations.

For Temirov, this is his first