Analysis: Andrea Lee vs JJ Aldrich

WolfTicketsAI Predicts JJ Aldrich to Win

Score: 13
Odds:
Andrea Lee: 154
JJ Aldrich: -200

Andrea Lee's Breakdown

Andrea Lee enters this fight on a rough patch, dropping her last five consecutive bouts. Her most recent loss came against Montana De La Rosa by split decision in June. Lee's striking has been her calling card, averaging 4.7 significant strikes per minute with good variety in her attack. She's particularly effective when creating angles with her footwork and head movement.

Against Montana De La Rosa, Lee struggled to impose her striking game as De La Rosa controlled the clinch and secured crucial takedowns. Similarly, in her loss to Miranda Maverick, Lee couldn't overcome Maverick's grappling pressure, getting outworked over three rounds.

Lee showed better form in her 2022 victory against Cynthia Calvillo, where she showcased her technical striking en route to a TKO finish. Her right straight dropped Calvillo early, demonstrating her power when she plants her feet. Lee also has submission skills, as evidenced by her 2021 triangle armbar victory over Antonina Shevchenko.

JJ Aldrich's Breakdown

JJ Aldrich is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Veronica Hardy in May, where Hardy neutralized Aldrich's striking with movement and timely grappling. Before that, Aldrich had won two straight, including a unanimous decision over Montana De La Rosa and a TKO victory against Liang Na.

Aldrich is a technical striker with a Taekwondo background who loves to use body kicks to maintain distance. Against Gillian Robertson, she showcased excellent footwork to avoid takedowns while landing precise strikes. Her defensive skills have improved over time, allowing her to neutralize grappling-heavy opponents.

While not known for finishes, Aldrich's technical approach has proven effective. Her August 2023 TKO of Liang Na demonstrated she can capitalize when opportunities present themselves. She's also shown good adaptability, as evidenced in her split decision win over Cortney Casey where she adjusted mid-fight to counter Casey's aggression.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking matchup: Lee lands more volume (4.7 vs 3.8 significant strikes per minute), but Aldrich has better defensive striking (60.5% vs 62.5%).
• Recent form: Lee has lost five straight fights while Aldrich has gone 3-2 in her last five.
• Common opponent: Both have faced Montana De La Rosa recently - Lee lost by split decision while Aldrich won by unanimous decision.
• Grappling defense: Aldrich's takedown defense (50%) is significantly worse than Lee's (82%), but Lee has been taken down in recent fights.
• Cardio and pacing: Aldrich typically maintains a steady pace throughout fights, while Lee has shown vulnerabilities in longer contests.
• Warning: Lee has lost 5 of her last 5 fights, suggesting a concerning downward trend.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction favors Aldrich despite the odds suggesting Lee should be favored:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the prediction score by 3.0 points, highlighting Aldrich's effectiveness in landing the more damaging strikes.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added another 1.0 point, showing Aldrich's recent striking efficiency.
• Odds actually decreased the prediction score by 10.0, indicating the model sees value against the betting market.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0, acknowledging Lee's experience despite her recent losses.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has correctly predicted against Andrea Lee in three of her last five fights (Miranda Maverick, Natalia Silva), but incorrectly backed her in fights against Maycee Barber and Viviane Araujo. The model has been inconsistent with Aldrich, correctly backing her against Liang Na and Gillian Robertson, but missing on her fights against Veronica Hardy, Montana De La Rosa, and Ariane Lipski.

Conclusion

Aldrich's technical striking and ability to maintain distance should be the difference-maker against Lee. While