Brad Tavares vs. Robert Bryczek - UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Robert Bryczek by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Paris, Ile-de-France, France
Elevation: 35.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Brad Tavares
16
18
23
6.0
-235
Robert Bryczek
+180

Fighter Comparison Chart

This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Middleweight weight class.

Brad Tavares
Robert Bryczek
Middleweight Average (50th percentile)

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Brad Tavares

Weight Class: Middleweight

Final Confidence: 19.2

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +20.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Brad Tavares

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • April 5, 2025: Brad Tavares won against Gerald Meerschaert. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • October 12, 2024: Brad Tavares lost against JunYong Park. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 29 - 28. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • February 10, 2024: Brad Tavares lost against Gregory Rodrigues. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:55. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • August 19, 2023: Brad Tavares won against Chris Weidman. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • April 22, 2023: Brad Tavares lost against Bruno Silva. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:35. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 2, 2022: Brad Tavares lost against Dricus Du Plessis. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 10, 2021: Brad Tavares won against Omari Akhmedov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 29 - 28.
  • January 23, 2021: Brad Tavares won against Antonio Carlos Junior. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • November 2, 2019: Brad Tavares lost against Edmen Shahbazyan. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:27. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 6, 2018: Brad Tavares lost against Israel Adesanya. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 45 - 50. 45 - 50.
  • April 14, 2018: Brad Tavares won against Krzysztof Jotko. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:16. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • October 7, 2017: Brad Tavares won against Thales Leites. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 26 - 30. 26 - 30.
  • July 7, 2017: Brad Tavares won against Elias Theodorou. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • September 10, 2016: Brad Tavares won against Caio Magalhaes. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 29 - 28. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • May 9, 2015: Brad Tavares lost against Robert Whittaker. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:44. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 3, 2015: Brad Tavares won against Nate Marquardt. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • August 16, 2014: Brad Tavares lost against Tim Boetsch. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:18. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • April 19, 2014: Brad Tavares lost against Yoel Romero. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • January 15, 2014: Brad Tavares won against Lorenz Larkin. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • August 28, 2013: Brad Tavares won against Robert McDaniel. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • March 2, 2013: Brad Tavares won against Riki Fukuda. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • September 29, 2012: Brad Tavares won against Tom Watson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
  • May 15, 2012: Brad Tavares won against Dongi Yang. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 2, 2011: Brad Tavares lost against Aaron Simpson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • January 1, 2011: Brad Tavares won against Phil Baroni. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:20. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 19, 2010: Brad Tavares won against Seth Baczynski. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
Robert Bryczek

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • February 10, 2024: Robert Bryczek lost against Ihor Potieria. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Brad Tavares to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Brad Tavares: -235
Robert Bryczek: +180

Brad Tavares's Breakdown

Tavares brings elite takedown defense (88% historically) and technical striking fundamentals that have carried him through 32 UFC fights. His signature techniques center around defensive counterpunching and distance management. Against Meerschaert, Tavares showcased his defensive wrestling by establishing wide bases and securing underhooks whenever takedowns were attempted. His overhand right off the fence—the same technique that troubled Dricus du Plessis—remains a reliable weapon when backing away from pressure.

Tavares excels at methodical pace control through his double jab setup, which he used effectively against Silva before getting caught with the counter hook. His defensive clinch work utilizes butterfly hooks and two-on-one grips to prevent ground-and-pound, as demonstrated in round three against Rodriguez. The veteran has evolved his leg kick game significantly, systematically targeting Weidman's lead leg to compromise mobility throughout their entire fight.

Recent performances show Tavares has refined his technical approach while maintaining his legendary durability. His quad-pod defensive position against Rodriguez's knees demonstrates the tactical adjustments he's made to survive against finishing-minded opponents.

Brad Tavares's Technical Vulnerabilities

Tavares's most glaring weakness is his susceptibility to well-timed counter hooks when extending with his jab. Bruno Silva perfectly demonstrated this by throwing a wide left hook over Tavares's extended jab, resulting in a knockout. This pattern has been exploited multiple times—when Tavares reaches with his double jab, he creates openings for power counters.

His defensive shell approach becomes problematic against sustained pressure. Rodriguez gradually broke down Tavares's defense through persistent calf kicks and volume, eventually overwhelming him in round three for the TKO. When forced into extended defensive sequences, Tavares sometimes becomes overly passive, allowing opponents to dictate pace and potentially steal rounds.

Tavares also struggles with finishing opponents despite technical advantages. Only two knockout victories in 32 UFC fights indicates a significant deficiency in capitalizing on hurt opponents or dominant positions. This limitation allows opponents to survive difficult moments and potentially mount comebacks.

Robert Bryczek's Breakdown

Bryczek enters with knockout power evidenced by his five-fight finishing streak before the UFC. His counterpunching revolves around a sharp left hook that he times excellently when opponents commit to attacks. Against Potieria, Bryczek initially found success with this weapon, cracking the southpaw with well-timed counters in the opening exchanges.

His boxing-centric approach emphasizes the 2-1 combination (right straight to left hook) when his jab gets neutralized. Bryczek's right straight to the body is another reliable tool, used to lower opponents' guards before targeting the head. He maintains forward pressure effectively, cutting off cage space to force pocket exchanges where his power can be leveraged.

The Polish fighter shows good rhythm disruption when pressuring, using feints to create openings for his power punches. His knockout streak demonstrates legitimate finishing ability that could trouble any middleweight if he lands clean.

Robert Bryczek's Technical Vulnerabilities

Bryczek's most critical weakness is his limited defensive options against varied striking attacks. Against Potieria's lead leg teeps, Bryczek had no effective counter, allowing the kicks to repeatedly disrupt his forward pressure and take his lead leg offline. His boxing-centric background leaves him underdeveloped against kicks.

His tendency to overcommit to counter opportunities creates dangerous defensive lapses. Bryczek sometimes turns his head completely away when throwing power shots, leaving him unable to see incoming counters. Potieria exploited this by ducking in on Bryczek's chest after throwing wide left hands, preventing the counter left hook.

Bryczek's high guard reliance without adequate head movement makes him predictable to read. When Potieria disrupted his rhythm with a sudden 1-2-3 combination after establishing single strikes, the third punch turned Bryczek's head and hurt him badly, beginning his downfall.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Tavares's technical experience over Bryczek's power punching. Tavares's double jab could exploit Bryczek's limited kick defense, similar to how Potieria used lead leg attacks. However, Tavares must be cautious—his tendency to extend with jabs plays directly into Bryczek's counter left hook strength.

Tavares's defensive wrestling advantage is massive. Bryczek showed no takedown attempts against Potieria, suggesting limited grappling integration. If pressured, Tavares can utilize his elite takedown defense or even initiate his own wrestling to disrupt Bryczek's rhythm.

The key technical battle centers on distance management. Bryczek needs to force pocket exchanges where his power can shine, while Tavares excels at maintaining range through footwork and jab control. Tavares's experience against pressure fighters like Rodriguez gives him a blueprint for handling Bryczek's forward movement.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds likely favor Bryczek's power if he can establish his counter timing. However, Tavares's defensive awareness and veteran composure should help him weather early storms. The methodical leg kick approach that worked against Weidman could systematically break down Bryczek's mobility.

Mid-fight adjustments favor Tavares significantly. His ability to adapt gameplans—switching to body work when head hunting fails, or utilizing defensive clinch work when pressured—gives him multiple paths to victory. Bryczek's one-dimensional approach becomes problematic as rounds progress.

Championship rounds heavily favor Tavares's conditioning and technical consistency. His decision-winning experience (most in middleweight history) contrasts sharply with Bryczek's finishing-or-bust mentality.

Analysis and Key Points

Experience gap is massive: Tavares's 32 UFC fights versus Bryczek's single UFC appearance • Technical versatility advantage: Tavares's well-rounded skillset versus Bryczek's boxing-heavy approach
Defensive wrestling mismatch: Tavares's elite takedown defense against Bryczek's non-existent wrestling • Cardio concerns for Bryczek: No evidence of three-round cardio at UFC level • Power vs. Technique: Bryczek's knockout ability versus Tavares's technical consistency

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems primarily from odds (+12 impact), reflecting the significant betting line disparity. Significant Striking Impact Differential (+7) and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+3) favor Tavares's proven ability to outlander opponents consistently. Striking Impact Differential (+2) and Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+1) highlight Tavares's well-rounded approach. Only Striking Defense Percentage (-2) and TrueSkill (-1) slightly favor Bryczek, but these are overwhelmed by Tavares's advantages.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has predicted Tavares correctly in 4 of 5 recent fights, including accurate predictions for his wins over Meerschaert and Weidman, plus correctly forecasting his losses to Park and Rodriguez. The model's only miss was predicting Tavares over Park, but even that was a close split decision. For Bryczek, this represents the model's first prediction, creating some uncertainty but the overwhelming statistical advantages support confidence.

Conclusion

Tavares's technical superiority, defensive wrestling, and vast experience advantage should prove decisive against Bryczek's one-dimensional power punching. While Bryczek possesses legitimate knockout ability, Tavares's proven durability and tactical adjustments give him multiple paths to a decision victory. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Tavares by decision aligns perfectly with his historical pattern and technical advantages in this matchup.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Brad Tavares Robert Bryczek
Main Stats
Age 37 35
Height 73" 72"
Reach 74" 75"
Win Percentage 65.63% 73.91%
Wins 21 18
Losses 12 6
Wins at Weight Class 16 0
Losses at Weight Class 10 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 48.05% 28.67%
Significant Striking Accuracy 43.41% 24.06%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.206 2.733
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.416 2.133
Knockdowns per Fight 0.178 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -2.81% -36.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 1.81% -35.00%
Striking Output Differential 2.46% -38.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 7.54% -35.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 98.45% 253.66%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 117.43% 315.63%
Striking Defense Percentage 55.04% 60.12%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.711 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 2.666 0.000
Takedown Defense 22.22% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 26.67% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.050 1.267
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.037 6.867
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.062 3.133
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.557 0.667
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.871 1.600
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.489 0.333
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.809 0.200
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.960 0.400
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.726 1.000
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.400 0.133
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.616 0.400
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.513 0.400
Brad Tavares History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 5, 2025 Middleweight Brad Tavares Gerald Meerschaert Brad Tavares
Oct. 12, 2024 Middleweight Brad Tavares JunYong Park JunYong Park
Feb. 10, 2024 Middleweight Brad Tavares Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Aug. 19, 2023 Middleweight Chris Weidman Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
April 22, 2023 Middleweight Brad Tavares Bruno Silva Bruno Silva
July 2, 2022 Middleweight Brad Tavares Dricus Du Plessis Dricus Du Plessis
July 10, 2021 Middleweight Omari Akhmedov Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
Jan. 23, 2021 Middleweight Brad Tavares Antonio Carlos Junior Brad Tavares
Nov. 2, 2019 Middleweight Brad Tavares Edmen Shahbazyan Edmen Shahbazyan
July 6, 2018 Middleweight Brad Tavares Israel Adesanya Israel Adesanya
April 14, 2018 Middleweight Krzysztof Jotko Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
Oct. 7, 2017 Middleweight Thales Leites Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
July 7, 2017 Middleweight Brad Tavares Elias Theodorou Brad Tavares
Sept. 10, 2016 Middleweight Brad Tavares Caio Magalhaes Brad Tavares
May 9, 2015 Middleweight Brad Tavares Robert Whittaker Robert Whittaker
Jan. 3, 2015 Middleweight Brad Tavares Nate Marquardt Brad Tavares
Aug. 16, 2014 Middleweight Tim Boetsch Brad Tavares Tim Boetsch
April 19, 2014 Middleweight Brad Tavares Yoel Romero Yoel Romero
Jan. 15, 2014 Middleweight Lorenz Larkin Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
Aug. 28, 2013 Middleweight Brad Tavares Robert McDaniel Brad Tavares
March 2, 2013 Middleweight Riki Fukuda Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
Sept. 29, 2012 Middleweight Tom Watson Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
May 15, 2012 Middleweight Brad Tavares Dongi Yang Brad Tavares
July 2, 2011 Middleweight Brad Tavares Aaron Simpson Aaron Simpson
Jan. 1, 2011 Middleweight Phil Baroni Brad Tavares Brad Tavares
June 19, 2010 Middleweight Brad Tavares Seth Baczynski Brad Tavares
Robert Bryczek History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 10, 2024 Middleweight Robert Bryczek Ihor Potieria Ihor Potieria