Analysis: Andreas Gustafsson vs Rinat Fakhretdinov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andreas Gustafsson to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Andreas Gustafsson: -120
Rinat Fakhretdinov: -106

Andreas Gustafsson's Breakdown

Gustafsson brings a relentless pressure-wrestling approach that overwhelmed Khaos Williams in his UFC debut. His signature technique is the cage-cutting takedown sequence—he charges forward with looping hooks to close distance, then drives opponents to the fence where he excels at double legs and body locks. Against Williams, Gustafsson landed 8 of 14 takedown attempts while maintaining 9:34 of control time. His Greco-Roman wrestling background shows in his upper body control and ability to chain takedowns when the first attempt fails.

In round two against Williams, Gustafsson showcased his best sequence: after pressuring Williams to the fence, he secured three takedowns in the latter half of the round, overwhelming Williams with pure physicality. His dirty boxing in the clinch is particularly effective—he landed clean knees to the body and short elbows that opened a nasty gash on Williams' face in round three. Gustafsson's cardio held up well through three hard rounds, and his 81.6% striking accuracy shows he picks his shots carefully rather than throwing wild volume.

Andreas Gustafsson's Technical Vulnerabilities

Gustafsson's striking defense is problematic at just 29.1%, making him vulnerable to counter-strikers who can time his aggressive entries. Early against Williams, he was reversed and controlled against the cage during clinch exchanges, showing that stronger opponents can exploit his forward-charging style. His predictable pattern of looping hooks followed by takedown attempts could be timed by more technical strikers. Additionally, his limited UFC experience (one fight) means he hasn't faced diverse styles that could expose other defensive gaps.

Rinat Fakhretdinov's Breakdown

Fakhretdinov operates as a crafty pressure fighter with a wrestling-heavy foundation, though his recent performances show concerning trends. His signature technique is the hand-trapping overhand right—he reaches with his lead hand to pull down opponents' rear hands, creating openings for powerful cross-counters. Against Kevin Lee, this approach set up his 55-second guillotine finish when Lee shot desperately after being hurt. His head-outside single leg takedowns are technically sound, often transitioning directly to back control with tight body triangles.

However, Fakhretdinov's recent fights reveal declining effectiveness. Against Carlos Leal, his predictable right-hand entries were consistently countered, and Leal's underhook-based takedown defense neutralized his wrestling. In round three against Nicolas Dalby, his striking devolved into arm punches with minimal body mechanics as his cardio failed. His controversial decisions over Leal and Dalby suggest he's struggling against higher-level competition.

Rinat Fakhretdinov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Fakhretdinov's cardio deterioration after round one is his most exploitable weakness. Against Zaleski dos Santos, front kicks to the body visibly damaged him by round three, and his technical execution completely broke down. His defensive movement against the fence is predictably one-dimensional—he circles in only one direction without level changes or direction switches, allowing opponents like Dalby to anticipate his exits and land intercepting strikes. His striking relies excessively on the overhand right, making his entries telegraphed and counterable by patient opponents.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Gustafsson's relentless pressure approach against Fakhretdinov's declining cardio. Gustafsson's ability to maintain technical proficiency through three rounds directly exploits Fakhretdinov's biggest weakness—his deteriorating performance after the opening round. While Fakhretdinov's hand-trapping entries might find success early, Gustafsson's 100% takedown defense ratio and superior conditioning suggest he can weather the initial storm.

Gustafsson's cage-cutting pressure will force Fakhretdinov into extended wrestling exchanges, exactly where Fakhretdinov has struggled recently. Leal's blueprint of strong underhooks and physical strength neutralized Fakhretdinov's takedowns, and Gustafsson's Greco-Roman background provides similar defensive tools. Fakhretdinov's predictable circling patterns against the fence play directly into Gustafsson's strengths—he can anticipate the movement and time his takedown entries accordingly.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds will see Fakhretdinov attempting his hand-trapping overhand rights while Gustafsson applies immediate forward pressure. Gustafsson's ability to absorb early damage (shown against Williams' early control) while maintaining his gameplan will be crucial. Mid-fight adjustments favor Gustafsson significantly—as Fakhretdinov's cardio fails, his defensive wrestling deteriorates, making Gustafsson's takedowns more accessible. Championship rounds aren't applicable here, but Gustafsson's superior conditioning gives him a decisive late-fight advantage if needed.

Analysis and Key Points

• Cardio Mismatch: Gustafsson maintained technical proficiency through three hard rounds against Williams, while Fakhretdinov consistently fades after round one • Wrestling Clash: Gustafsson's 100% takedown defense and chain wrestling ability directly counters Fakhretdinov's declining takedown success rate • Pressure vs. Pressure: Both fighters prefer to lead, but Gustafsson's relentless approach has proven more sustainable • Experience Gap: Fakhretdinov's recent controversial decisions suggest declining performance against quality opposition

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems primarily from Significant Striking Impact Differential (+7.0) and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+3.0), reflecting Gustafsson's dominant debut performance. Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+2.0) favors Gustafsson's wrestling-heavy approach, while Odds (+1.0) slightly supports the betting market's assessment. Fakhretdinov's TrueSkill rating (-1.0) works against him despite his longer UFC tenure, suggesting the model recognizes his recent performance decline.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has mixed results with Fakhretdinov, going 3-1 in predictions but notably missing on the Zaleski dos Santos fight where Fakhretdinov's cardio issues were most apparent. The model correctly predicted his controversial split decision over Dalby, showing it can account for his grinding style even when he's not at his best. This is Gustafsson's first prediction, creating some uncertainty, but his dominant debut provides strong data points.

Conclusion

Gustafsson's relentless pressure and superior cardio directly exploit Fakhretdinov's most glaring weakness—his inability to maintain technical effectiveness beyond the opening round. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Gustafsson reflects a clear stylistic advantage where the newcomer's grinding approach will overwhelm the fading veteran.