Analysis: Rob Font vs Kyler Phillips

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kyler Phillips to Win

Score: 24 Odds:
Rob Font: 335 Kyler Phillips: -450

Rob Font's Breakdown

Rob Font is a high-volume striker who relies on his boxing and jab to maintain distance and outpoint opponents. He has good cardio and likes to push a high pace. In his recent fights, he's struggled against opponents who can match his volume and disrupt his rhythm with powerful counters, takedowns and clinch work.

Against Marlon Vera and Jose Aldo, Font started strong but faded as the fights went on. He got caught and hurt by their powerful counters, which made him hesitant to lead with his jab. Defensively, he's still somewhat vulnerable to body shots and leg kicks that slow his movement.

On the ground, Font has solid defensive grappling and scrambling ability, but he was controlled and threatened by Aldo's top pressure. His takedown defense held up early but eventually got worn down.

Font will need to make some adjustments to beat a dynamic, well-rounded fighter like Kyler Phillips. Relying too heavily on his jab and straight punches could leave him open to Phillips' diverse striking attacks and wrestling threats.

Kyler Phillips' Breakdown

Kyler Phillips is an extremely talented and creative striker. He utilizes a wide array of unorthodox techniques like spinning kicks, switch stances, leaping knees, and inventive combinations. This makes him very difficult to prepare for and deal with.

Phillips is constantly attacking from different angles with different weapons. He'll throw several flashy and unorthodox techniques, then suddenly change levels for a takedown. This diversity keeps opponents guessing and makes him very hard to time or counter.

Despite his flashy style, Phillips also has very good fundamentals. His footwork, distance management and defense are all quite solid. He's light on his feet and moves well, making him an elusive target. Defensively responsible even when attacking.

In the loss to Paiva, Phillips was doing well early but seemed to fade a bit as the fight went on. Paiva capitalized by timing takedowns and clinch entries as Phillips was throwing kicks. Phillips' cardio and pacing are still developing.

But in his last two fights, Phillips showed good adjustments, fighting with more patience and discipline. He picked his shots more carefully and avoided over-extending into risky positions. A very intelligent and quickly evolving fighter.

Analysis and Key Points

• Phillips' striking creativity and diversity will be very tough for Font to deal with. Constantly changing stances, attack angles and techniques.

• Phillips' ability to seamlessly mix in wrestling attempts makes him even more dangerous and unpredictable. Font will have to be wary of reactive shots at all times.

• Font will need to apply smart pressure with his jab to back Phillips up, but must be ready to defend Phillips' spinning attacks and level changes as he steps in.

• Phillips should look to kick early and often, attacking Font's legs and body to slow him down. This will set up his takedowns and make Font easier to hit up high.

• If Font over-extends or becomes stationary, expect Phillips to leap in with a flying knee or spinning kick, or change levels for a takedown. Constant threats.

• Clinch wrestling could be key. Both are skilled clinch fighters. If Font can pin Phillips and dirty box, he could wear him down. But if Phillips can hit outside trips and elevate Font, he could get takedowns.

• Font's cardio advantage is somewhat neutralized by Phillips' more disciplined pace in recent fights. Phillips conserved energy better vs Barcelos.

Understanding the Prediction

Key factors increasing the model's confidence in Phillips:

• Striking Accuracy: Phillips' 55% striking accuracy and 51% significant strike accuracy in his last 5 fights are much higher than Font's 44% and 42%. Shows Phillips is defensively responsible and picks his shots carefully.

• Striking Defense: Phillips absorbs only 2.21 head strikes per minute recently vs 2.28 for Font. Phillips' unorthodox movement makes him very hard to hit cleanly.

• Grappling: Phillips attempts 6.63 takedowns per fight recently vs only 2.43 for Font. Even if not completed, constant threat of takedowns limits Font's striking.

Key factors decreasing confidence in Font:

• Striking Absorption: Font has absorbed more significant strikes to the head and body recently. Damage adding up from Vera and Aldo fights.

• Recent Results: Font has lost 2 of his last 3, and was hurt and controlled on the ground in those losses. At age 35, durability and ability to make adjustments in question.

Past Model Performance

The model has performed well in predicting both fighters' recent fights:

• Correctly predicted Phillips to beat Munhoz and Barcelos
• Correctly predicted Font's losses to Figueiredo and Vera

This increases confidence in the prediction. The model has a good read on their current form and trajectories.

The one concern is Phillips' 2021 loss to Paiva, where the model had Phillips as a big favorite. Phillips faded late after a strong start. Need to see he can maintain his pace for 3 hard rounds vs a volume striker like Font. But overall, Phillips' advantages in striking diversity, defense, and wrestling threat give him the edge.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a Kyler Phillips decision victory in an exciting technical fight. Phillips' unorthodox striking and grappling will prove too diverse and unpredictable for Font to overcome.

While Font may have the edge in volume and cardio, Phillips' striking defense, clever shot selection, and takedown threat will disrupt Font's typical jabbing game. As the fight goes on, look for Phillips to mix in more reactive takedowns and top control to seal the rounds.

Unless Font can make a major adjustment to cut off the cage, apply educated pressure, and avoid Phillips' wrestle-strikes, the younger and craftier Phillips should be able to outmaneuver him for a clear decision. Another impressive performance from one of the division's most unique and promising talents.