Analysis: Matheus Nicolau vs Asu Almabayev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Asu Almabayev to Win

Score: 19 Odds: Matheus Nicolau: +148 Asu Almabayev: -192

Matheus Nicolau's Breakdown

Matheus Nicolau is a seasoned UFC veteran with a solid 19-5 record overall and 8-3 in the UFC. He's shown impressive striking skills in his recent fights, with a 3.62 significant strikes landed per minute and 54% striking accuracy.

However, some concerning trends emerge when analyzing Nicolau's last few performances. He's coming off two brutal knockout losses to Alex Perez and Brandon Royval. Getting finished in back-to-back fights is always worrisome, especially by KO/TKO which can take a toll on a fighter.

The manner of the losses is also concerning - Nicolau was caught and hurt badly early in both fights. This suggests potential defensive holes that aggressive strikers like Almabayev may look to exploit. Nicolau needs to shore up his defense and weathering the early onslaught to have a chance here.

On the positive side, prior to those losses, Nicolau scored impressive wins over solid opponents like Matt Schnell and David Dvorak. He has a well-rounded skillset with good takedown defense (67% recently). If he can avoid the early bombs and drag this into the later rounds, his experience could be a factor.

Asu Almabayev's Breakdown

Asu Almabayev is a highly touted prospect with a stellar 20-2 record, including 2-0 so far in the UFC. At just 26 years old, he already looks like a future title contender in the division.

Almabayev's strength is his devastating striking. He lands a whopping 6.55 significant strikes per minute at a 68% accuracy in his UFC tenure so far. For comparison, that striking volume would put him 3rd among active UFC flyweights. He's a perfect 2-0 in the UFC with dominant decision wins over CJ Vergara and Jose Johnson.

Beyond the stats, the eye test shows a lightning quick, powerful striker with excellent timing and varied kicks. Almabayev mixes up punches and kicks to different levels beautifully. His movement and feints make him hard to hit cleanly in return.

The only real question mark on Almabayev at this stage is his grappling. We haven't seen him truly tested by a high level wrestler or submission artist yet. But his 73% takedown defense so far is promising, as is his background in Combat Sambo.

Analysis and Key Points

This shapes up as a striker vs striker matchup where Almabayev looks to have sizable advantages. Some key factors:

• Striking Differentials: Almabayev's +53 striking differential and +37 impact differential dwarf Nicolau's -19 and +11 marks. Asu lands more and lands harder.

• Defensive Concerns: Nicolau's been knocked out badly in 2 of his last 3 fights, while Asu has looked incredibly hard to hit in his young UFC career. Advantage Almabayev.

• Youth vs Experience: At 26, Almabayev is 9 years younger than the 35 year old Nicolau. He's the one on the upswing of his career. Nicolau has more fights, but also more mileage.

The one path to victory for Nicolau would seem to be dragging this fight to the mat and testing Almabayev's grappling. But with Almabayev's 73% takedown defense, that's easier said than done. More likely this plays out on the feet, where Almabayev's speed and power look like major problems for Nicolau.

Understanding the Prediction

Here's why the SHAP values support the model leaning heavily towards Almabayev:

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight: Almabayev attempts a whopping 12.2 takedowns per fight recently. That relentless grappling could nullify Nicolau's striking. Decreases model score for Nicolau.

• Striking Impact Differentials: Almabayev's +37 recent and +27 overall strike impact differential are way higher than Nicolau's. He lands much harder. Decreases score for Nicolau.

• Win Percentage: Almabayev's perfect 100% win rate in the UFC and 91% overall smashes Nicolau's 79% overall and 33% recent marks. Almabayev is more proven as a winner. Decreases score for Nicolau.

• Striking Defense Percentage: Almabayev absorbs just 48% of his opponent's strikes recently compared to 62% for Nicolau. He's much harder to hit. Increases score for Almabayev.

Of all the features, really only Nicolau having better odds and a higher TrueSkill score seem to favor him. And those are outweighed by Almabayev's significant striking and grappling advantages.

Past Model Performance

Asu Almabayev: So far the WolfTickets model is 2-0 in predicting Almabayev's fights, nailing both his decision wins over Johnson (74% confidence) and Vergara (77% confidence). The model clearly likes what it sees in the young prospect.

Matheus Nicolau: The WolfTickets model has a shakier 3-2 record predicting Nicolau's fights. It had him as a pretty heavy favorite over Dvorak (78%) and Schnell (78%) which he delivered on. But it also favored him over Royval (41%) and Perez (61%) in fights where he got KO'd. Nicolau is becoming harder for the model to peg as he gets older.

Conclusion

After analyzing the stats, matchup, and model predictions closely, I have to agree with the model and favor Asu Almabayev to win this fight. His striking prowess, defensive skills, grappling threat and relentless pace look like a lot for the aging Nicolau to handle at this stage of his career.

Almabayev's striking differentials are vastly superior, he's harder to hit, and attempts way more takedowns to keep opponents guessing. Unless Nicolau can consistently drag him into deep waters with grappling, the younger man's speed, power and pressure should carry him to a decisive win.

Almabayev Wins by KO/TKO.