Results: Michael Johnson vs. Darrius Flowers

Winner: Michael Johnson by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Lightweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Michael Johnson vs Darrius Flowers

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Darrius Flowers to Win

Michael Johnson's Breakdown

Michael Johnson, a seasoned lightweight with a mix of spectacular wins and tough losses, exhibits a fighter's spirit and resilience. His UFC tenure, peppered with highs and lows, has shaped him into a crafty veteran. Notably, Johnson's striking game, characterized by rapid hands and potent combinations, remains his standout asset. However, his grappling and ground game, while improved, continue to be areas of potential vulnerability. Johnson's record reveals a pattern of struggling against versatile fighters who can mix striking with grappling effectively.

Johnson's recent performances have been a rollercoaster. Notably, his knockout loss to Diego Ferreira demonstrates a critical vulnerability to powerful strikes, while his unanimous decision win over Marc Diakiese showcases his ability to control the pace and use his striking effectively. A split decision loss to Jamie Mullarkey and a unanimous decision loss to Clay Guida further highlight issues with consistency and dealing with pressure. His victory over Alan Patrick by knockout reaffirms his striking threat. Johnson's stats indicate a strong striking game but also reveal areas where he absorbs significant strikes, especially to the head.

WolfTicketsAI's past predictions on Johnson have been mixed, reflecting the unpredictability in his fights. The model correctly predicted his loss to Mullarkey but was off in its prediction against Diakiese. This indicates a potential risk in betting, considering the model's historical performance with Johnson's fights.

Darrius Flowers's Breakdown

Darrius Flowers, an enigmatic figure in the lightweight division, is characterized by an unpredictable and adaptive fighting style. His approach is marked by a willingness to employ unconventional tactics, which can either disrupt opponents or expose Flowers to risks. However, detailed insights into Flowers's UFC performances are limited, and it seems there might be some uncertainty about his record and past fights in the UFC. This lack of detailed data on Flowers's UFC career makes it challenging to predict his performance with high confidence.

Flowers's stats show a strong emphasis on takedowns, with a significant number of takedowns attempted per fight, which might hint at a grappling-centric approach. However, his striking stats, particularly the high number of head strikes absorbed per minute, suggest vulnerability in the stand-up department.

Given the limited data and history of WolfTicketsAI predictions for Flowers, caution is advised in relying on the model's prediction for his performance.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup is intriguing, with Johnson's experienced striking pitted against Flowers's unpredictable and potentially grappling-heavy approach. Johnson must leverage his striking precision and speed, keeping the fight standing and dictating the pace. Flowers, on the other hand, might look to exploit Johnson's less formidable ground game, using his adaptability and potential grappling skills.

The key for Johnson is to avoid Flowers's takedown attempts and maintain the fight in his comfort zone - the stand-up game. For Flowers, the strategy might involve closing the distance, engaging in clinch work, and seeking takedowns to neutralize Johnson's striking.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts Darrius Flowers to win, possibly capitalizing on Johnson's recent inconsistencies and vulnerabilities, particularly in grappling exchanges. However, Johnson's striking prowess and experience should not be underestimated. This fight presents a classic striker vs. grappler dynamic, with the outcome hinging on Johnson's ability to keep the fight standing and Flowers's success in taking it to the ground. Given the unpredictability in Johnson's recent performances and the limited data on Flowers, this prediction carries a level of uncertainty and risk.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Michael Johnson Darrius Flowers
Main Stats
Age 37 29
Height 70" 69"
Reach 73" 71"
Win Percentage 53.66% 66.67%
Wins 23 12
Losses 19 7
Wins at Weight Class 10 0
Losses at Weight Class 12 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 40.38% 59.42%
Significant Striking Accuracy 39.19% 56.25%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.502 5.383
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.254 4.727
Knockdowns per Fight 0.471 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -4.44% -30.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 4.00% -24.00%
Striking Output Differential 8.52% -44.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 18.07% -37.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 123.24% 102.44%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 127.10% 113.89%
Striking Defense Percentage 58.00% 40.59%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.047 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.424 1.969
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.178 5.908
Takedown Defense 23.81% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 36.00% 33.33%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.319 2.757
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.791 6.302
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.746 5.252
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.272 0.788
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 2.212 0.788
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.553 1.838
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.663 1.182
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.851 1.313
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.616 0.788
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.280 0.657
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.440 0.919
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.270 0.263
Michael Johnson History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
May 20, 2023 Lightweight Diego Ferreira Michael Johnson Diego Ferreira
Dec. 3, 2022 Lightweight Michael Johnson Marc Diakiese Michael Johnson
July 9, 2022 Lightweight Michael Johnson Jamie Mullarkey Jamie Mullarkey
May 14, 2022 Lightweight Michael Johnson Alan Patrick Michael Johnson
Feb. 6, 2021 Lightweight Michael Johnson Clay Guida Clay Guida
May 13, 2020 Lightweight Michael Johnson Thiago Moises Thiago Moises
Oct. 26, 2019 Lightweight Michael Johnson Stevie Ray Stevie Ray
March 30, 2019 Featherweight Josh Emmett Michael Johnson Josh Emmett
Oct. 27, 2018 Featherweight Michael Johnson Artem Lobov Michael Johnson
Aug. 25, 2018 Featherweight Michael Johnson Andre Fili Michael Johnson
Jan. 14, 2018 Featherweight Darren Elkins Michael Johnson Darren Elkins
July 7, 2017 Lightweight Michael Johnson Justin Gaethje Justin Gaethje
Nov. 12, 2016 Lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov Michael Johnson Khabib Nurmagomedov
Sept. 17, 2016 Lightweight Dustin Poirier Michael Johnson Michael Johnson
Dec. 19, 2015 Lightweight Michael Johnson Nate Diaz Nate Diaz
Aug. 8, 2015 Lightweight Michael Johnson Beneil Dariush Beneil Dariush
Feb. 22, 2015 Lightweight Edson Barboza Michael Johnson Michael Johnson
March 8, 2014 Lightweight Michael Johnson Melvin Guillard Michael Johnson
Dec. 28, 2013 Lightweight Gleison Tibau Michael Johnson Michael Johnson
Aug. 17, 2013 Lightweight Joe Lauzon Michael Johnson Michael Johnson
April 6, 2013 Lightweight Reza Madadi Michael Johnson Reza Madadi
Dec. 29, 2012 Lightweight Michael Johnson Myles Jury Myles Jury
Oct. 5, 2012 Lightweight Michael Johnson Danny Castillo Michael Johnson
May 5, 2012 Lightweight Tony Ferguson Michael Johnson Michael Johnson
Jan. 28, 2012 Lightweight Michael Johnson Shane Roller Michael Johnson
Oct. 1, 2011 Lightweight Michael Johnson Paul Sass Paul Sass
Dec. 4, 2010 Ultimate Fighter 12 Lightweight Tournament Title Jonathan Brookins Michael Johnson Jonathan Brookins
Darrius Flowers History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 29, 2023 Welterweight Jake Matthews Darrius Flowers Jake Matthews