The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Fernando Padilla | Kyle Nelson | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 26 | 32 | 31 | |
| Height | 73" | 71" | 69" | |
| Reach | 76" | 71" | 71" | |
| Win Percentage | 78.95% | 73.68% | 79.75% | |
| Wins | 15 | 15 | ||
| Losses | 5 | 5 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 1 | 2 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 3 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 68.97% | 50.84% | 49.53% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 68.97% | 45.09% | 43.27% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 11.881 | 3.968 | 5.295 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 11.881 | 3.064 | 3.705 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 8.911 | 0.000 | 0.355 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 5.00% | -33.14% | 4.01% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 5.00% | -15.86% | 2.29% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 5.00% | -40.29% | 7.36% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 5.00% | -21.71% | 5.02% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 45.00% | 113.20% | 84.54% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 45.00% | 139.32% | 107.41% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 37.50% | 48.58% | 48.28% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.786 | 0.648 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.000 | 1.375 | 1.474 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.000 | 6.089 | 4.127 | |
| Takedown Defense | 100.00% | 40.00% | 78.76% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 0.00% | 22.58% | 35.13% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 10.099 | 1.663 | 2.335 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 14.852 | 4.884 | 6.112 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 5.347 | 2.514 | 2.287 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.188 | 0.904 | 0.810 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.782 | 1.296 | 1.163 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.594 | 1.113 | 0.956 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.594 | 0.498 | 0.560 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.594 | 0.616 | 0.679 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 2.970 | 0.890 | 0.555 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.000 | 0.537 | 0.442 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.000 | 0.760 | 0.601 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.000 | 0.419 | 0.591 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| April 29, 2023 | Featherweight | Julian Erosa | Fernando Padilla | Fernando Padilla |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 10, 2023 | Featherweight | Kyle Nelson | Blake Bilder | Kyle Nelson | |
| Feb. 4, 2023 | Featherweight | Dooho Choi | Kyle Nelson | None | |
| July 23, 2022 | Lightweight | Jai Herbert | Kyle Nelson | Jai Herbert | |
| Sept. 12, 2020 | Featherweight | Billy Quarantillo | Kyle Nelson | Billy Quarantillo | |
| Sept. 21, 2019 | Featherweight | Marco Polo Reyes | Kyle Nelson | Kyle Nelson | |
| May 4, 2019 | Featherweight | Kyle Nelson | Matt Sayles | Matt Sayles | |
| Dec. 8, 2018 | Lightweight | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson | Diego Ferreira |