The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Fighter | WolfTicketsAI Score | Current Odds | |-|-|-| | Alexa Grasso | 15 | +138 | | Valentina Shevchenko | | -165 |
Alexa Grasso:
- 33.1 Recent Striking Impact Differential
- 8.7 Recent Strikes Landed per Minute
- 5.5 Recent Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
- 0.67 Recent Takedown Defense
Valentina Shevchenko:
- 39.1 Recent Striking Impact Differential
- 7.2 Recent Strikes Landed per Minute
- 3.6 Recent Significant Strikes Landed per Minute
- 0.70 Recent Takedown Accuracy
Alexa Grasso is the fighter to bet on for this rematch. Our predictive model forecasts her to once again defeat Valentina Shevchenko. Grasso has superior striking metrics like impact differential and strikes landed per minute. She also already owns a submission victory over Shevchenko in their last fight. While Shevchenko is the more experienced fighter, the data indicates Grasso's stand-up skills and developing ground game give her an edge to win this bout. Her previous upset of Shevchenko shows she has the ability to overcome the odds. For these reasons, Grasso is the recommended bet based on the information provided.
| Stat | Alexa Grasso | Valentina Shevchenko | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 30 | 35 | 34 | |
| Height | 65" | 65" | 65" | |
| Reach | 66" | 66" | 66" | |
| Win Percentage | 84.21% | 85.19% | 86.33% | |
| Wins | 16 | 23 | ||
| Losses | 3 | 4 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 1 | 8 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 1 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 54.20% | 68.95% | 61.50% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 43.30% | 53.41% | 48.17% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 8.058 | 6.749 | 6.778 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.877 | 3.287 | 3.730 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.057 | 0.132 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | 29.64% | 34.87% | 28.01% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 11.45% | 22.73% | 15.24% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 39.82% | 23.60% | 24.03% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 17.73% | 12.27% | 10.49% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 75.62% | 54.58% | 68.51% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 121.92% | 105.45% | 118.88% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 59.36% | 63.57% | 62.42% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.576 | 0.343 | 0.506 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.384 | 2.574 | 1.891 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.864 | 4.004 | 3.054 | |
| Takedown Defense | 63.64% | 38.46% | 39.25% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 44.44% | 64.29% | 59.75% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.021 | 2.112 | 2.377 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 8.698 | 4.572 | 6.093 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.899 | 0.629 | 1.447 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.986 | 0.458 | 0.623 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.389 | 0.683 | 0.924 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.813 | 0.580 | 0.667 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.870 | 0.717 | 0.730 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 1.178 | 0.900 | 0.926 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.358 | 0.778 | 0.650 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.691 | 0.309 | 0.466 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.973 | 0.431 | 0.620 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.429 | 0.324 | 0.358 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 4, 2023 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| Oct. 15, 2022 | Women's Flyweight | Alexa Grasso | Viviane Araujo | Alexa Grasso | |
| March 26, 2022 | Women's Flyweight | Joanne Wood | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| Feb. 13, 2021 | Women's Flyweight | Maycee Barber | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| Aug. 29, 2020 | Women's Flyweight | Ji Yeon Kim | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| Sept. 21, 2019 | Women's Strawweight | Carla Esparza | Alexa Grasso | Carla Esparza | |
| June 8, 2019 | Women's Strawweight | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| May 19, 2018 | Women's Strawweight | Alexa Grasso | Tatiana Suarez | Tatiana Suarez | |
| Aug. 5, 2017 | Women's Strawweight | Randa Markos | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| Feb. 4, 2017 | Women's Strawweight | Alexa Grasso | Felice Herrig | Felice Herrig | |
| Nov. 5, 2016 | Women's Strawweight | Alexa Grasso | Heather Clark | Alexa Grasso |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 4, 2023 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Alexa Grasso | Alexa Grasso | |
| June 11, 2022 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Taila Santos | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Sept. 25, 2021 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Lauren Murphy | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| April 24, 2021 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Jessica Andrade | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Nov. 21, 2020 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Jennifer Maia | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Feb. 8, 2020 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Katlyn Cerminara | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Aug. 10, 2019 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Liz Carmouche | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| June 8, 2019 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Jessica Eye | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Dec. 8, 2018 | UFC Women's Flyweight Title | Valentina Shevchenko | Joanna Jedrzejczyk | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Feb. 3, 2018 | Women's Flyweight | Valentina Shevchenko | Priscila Cachoeira | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| Sept. 9, 2017 | UFC Women's Bantamweight Title | Amanda Nunes | Valentina Shevchenko | Amanda Nunes | |
| Jan. 28, 2017 | Women's Bantamweight | Valentina Shevchenko | Julianna Pena | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| July 23, 2016 | Women's Bantamweight | Holly Holm | Valentina Shevchenko | Valentina Shevchenko | |
| March 5, 2016 | Women's Bantamweight | Amanda Nunes | Valentina Shevchenko | Amanda Nunes | |
| Dec. 19, 2015 | Women's Bantamweight | Sarah Kaufman | Valentina Shevchenko | Valentina Shevchenko |