Analysis: Allan Nascimento vs Rafael Estevam

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Allan Nascimento to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Allan Nascimento: -128
Rafael Estevam: +100

Allan Nascimento's Breakdown

Nascimento brings legitimate UFC-level grappling into this matchup, with his Charles Oliveira-influenced submission game proving decisive in 7 of his 21 career wins. His signature whizzer-to-ankle-pick sequence—where he establishes the overhook against the fence, threatens a lateral throw, then attacks the far ankle—represents sophisticated fence craft that's troubled multiple opponents. Against Jake Hadley, he systematically neutralized underhook escapes from half guard by placing his head over Hadley's elbow and backstopping underneath the hips, then punctuating with knee strikes to the body when Hadley hand-fought.

His scramble-based guard retention mirrors Oliveira's approach perfectly. When Jafel Filho climbed onto his back in their May 2025 bout, Nascimento repeatedly used Filho's forward momentum against him, rolling through and reversing position. This happened in at least two rounds and directly won him the decision despite Filho controlling most exchanges. Against Carlos Hernandez, he secured a rear-naked choke with a modified grip—hiding his wrist behind Hernandez's back rather than using the traditional figure-four—after Hernandez made the critical error of posting his defensive hand while attempting a cage walk escape.

The concern is his two-year layoff before the Filho fight clearly diminished his physical tools. His speed and timing appeared notably degraded, preventing him from capitalizing on scramble opportunities that previously defined his success. He's averaging 1.54 takedowns per fight on 4.66 attempts (33% accuracy), but more importantly, he's landing 1.28 submissions per fight with recent form showing 1.32 per fight. His recent striking defense sits at 67.32% for significant strikes, and he's won his last two straight.

Allan Nascimento's Technical Vulnerabilities

Diminished Speed After Layoff: The Filho fight exposed significant regression in Nascimento's physical execution. His reactions to striking exchanges, transitions between ranges, and scramble speed all demonstrated decreased sharpness compared to his performances against Tagir Ulanbekov and Jeff Molina. When Filho pursued back control, Nascimento's technical knowledge remained intact—he knew the counters—but his physical capacity to execute at UFC pace proved inadequate. This speed deficit prevented him from capitalizing on the scramble opportunities that previously made him dangerous.

Inability to Maintain Dominant Positions: Against both Filho and Ulanbekov, Nascimento showed a consistent vulnerability to extended control along the cage. While he possesses tools to create brief offensive moments (the whizzer sequence, positional reversals), he lacks systematic defensive structure to prevent opponents from re-establishing dominant positions. In Round 3 against Ulanbekov, his submission attempts decreased in frequency and effectiveness as Ulanbekov tightened top control, demonstrating how sustained pressure diminishes his offensive output.

Striking Defense Gaps: Nascimento's stand-up game remains a "poor imitation of Oliveira" with limited refinement. Against Ulanbekov, he showed inconsistent timing in striking exchanges with delayed defensive reactions. His tendency to reset with his chin high allows pressure fighters to walk through his offense. When forced into extended striking exchanges, his defensive posture and head movement aren't refined enough to prevent counter shots, making him vulnerable to opponents who can maintain distance and force stand-up battles.

Rafael Estevam's Breakdown

Estevam enters undefeated at 14-0 but with only three UFC appearances—and he's missed weight by four to five pounds in two of those three fights. That's a massive red flag. His grinding, pressure-oriented grappling style revolves around establishing top control through weight distribution rather than dynamic offense. Against Felipe Bunes in August 2025, he secured top position and applied sustained downward pressure through chest and head placement, incorporating sporadic elbows but primarily exhausting Bunes through gravitational pressure.

His buggy choke attempts against Bunes revealed fundamental limitations—he treats them as static submission attempts rather than dynamic transitions. Neither the traditional nor outside buggy threatened to finish, and critically, they failed to provoke defensive reactions that create scrambling opportunities. His movement quality appeared "labored and syrup-like," suggesting the weight issues aren't simple cutting errors but fundamental body composition problems.

Against Jesus Aguilar, Estevam showed more technical refinement in his striking, using probing jabs and inside low kicks to set up his trip takedowns. His right straight to the body proved effective, and he finished with a technically sound weave-hook combination in Round 4. Against Charles Johnson, he demonstrated sophisticated back control, trapping one of Johnson's defensive hands with his foot while controlling the other, then sliding his arm under for the rear-naked choke finish.

He's averaging 6.33 takedowns per fight on 16.67 attempts (38% accuracy), showing relentless wrestling pressure. However, his significant striking differential sits at -23.67, indicating he's getting outlanded badly on the feet. His recent significant striking output differential is even worse at -42.78, suggesting opponents are finding success in the striking exchanges.

Rafael Estevam's Technical Vulnerabilities

Chronic Weight Management Failures: Missing weight in two of three UFC fights isn't just unprofessional—it creates cascading technical problems. While his excess mass provides advantages in static grappling positions, it severely compromises his ability to pursue takedowns effectively, transition dynamically, or maintain output over three rounds. His "labored and syrup-like" movement against Bunes indicates either poor conditioning protocols or carrying inappropriate muscle mass for flyweight. Against a scramble-oriented grappler like Nascimento, this conditioning deficit will be exploited ruthlessly.

Static Submission System: Estevam's buggy choke attempts against Bunes showed he's drilling techniques as endpoints rather than transitional threats. A properly executed buggy forces opponents to post, lift, or turn—creating scramble opportunities even when the submission fails. His static approach allowed Bunes to remain comfortable rather than panicking. Against Nascimento's Oliveira-influenced scramble game, this incompleteness will be disastrous. When Nascimento invites back exposure and rolls through, Estevam won't have the transitional awareness to capitalize.

Minimal Offensive Output from Top: From dominant positions, Estevam demonstrated "the odd elbow" interspersed with extended periods of pure positional holding. Against Bunes's patient defensive structure, this grinding approach accumulated rounds without threatening finishes. Nascimento won't be patient on bottom—he'll be threatening triangles, armbars, and using any positional stagnation to create scrambles. Estevam's lack of offensive urgency will give Nascimento exactly the opportunities he needs to reverse or submit.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits Estevam's grinding top pressure against Nascimento's opportunistic submission game—and the technical dynamics heavily favor Nascimento. Estevam's entire strategic framework requires opponents to exhaust themselves trying to escape his static control. But Nascimento doesn't escape through explosive athleticism; he uses technical reversals and submission threats to create positional changes.

When Estevam secures top position and applies his chest-to-chest pressure, Nascimento will immediately threaten with triangles from closed guard—the exact position Estevam held against Bunes. Nascimento's half guard offense, featuring the mounted crucifix position and knee strikes to the body, directly counters Estevam's preferred control positions. Against Hadley, Nascimento systematically neutralized underhook escapes and landed effective strikes from half guard. Estevam's static approach gives Nascimento time to set up these attacks.

Estevam's buggy choke attempts will be particularly dangerous for him. Against an opponent with Nascimento's scrambling ability, incomplete buggy technique creates exactly the transitional chaos where Nascimento thrives. When Estevam's buggy fails to finish (as they did against Bunes), Nascimento will use that positional disruption to roll through, establish top position, or threaten his own submissions.

The striking exchanges favor Nascimento despite his own limitations. Estevam's significant striking differential of -23.67 (recent: -42.78) indicates he's getting badly outlanded on the feet. While Nascimento's striking isn't elite, his 67.32% recent significant striking defense and ability to land 1.56 significant strikes per minute gives him clear advantages. Estevam's lack of striking confidence means he'll need to pursue takedowns against an opponent who welcomes grappling exchanges.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Estevam will immediately pursue takedowns, unwilling to engage in striking where his deficiencies are pronounced. His 6.33 takedowns per fight on 16.67 attempts shows relentless pressure, but Nascimento's 200% takedown defense ratio (recent: 367%) suggests he'll stuff multiple attempts. When Estevam does secure top position, Nascimento will immediately threaten with submissions from guard. Expect triangles, armbars, and scrambles as Nascimento refuses to accept static control.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: As Estevam's conditioning deteriorates (evidenced by his labored movement against Bunes), his ability to maintain top pressure will diminish. Nascimento's cardio has proven sufficient across three-round fights, and his technical knowledge doesn't require explosive athleticism. When Estevam's pressure wanes, Nascimento will increase his scrambling frequency, using Estevam's fatigue to create more dramatic reversals. This mirrors the Filho fight where Nascimento's positional reversals won rounds despite less overall control time.

Championship Rounds: If this reaches Round 3, Estevam's weight management issues and conditioning deficits will be catastrophic. His grinding style requires sustained pressure, but his body composition problems prevent late-fight output. Nascimento, having survived and reversed positions throughout, will either secure a submission as Estevam's defensive awareness deteriorates, or dominate position as Estevam's pressure evaporates entirely.

Analysis and Key Points

• Experience Gap: Nascimento has 27 professional fights (21-6) with four UFC appearances. Estevam has 14 fights (14-0) with only three UFC appearances. This limited UFC sample size creates prediction uncertainty, but Nascimento's proven ability against UFC-caliber competition gives him a significant edge.

• Weight Management Warning: Estevam missed weight in two of three UFC fights. This chronic issue suggests either unprofessionalism or fundamental body composition problems. Either way, it indicates compromised conditioning and movement quality—critical vulnerabilities against a scramble-oriented grappler.

• Grappling Mismatch: Nascimento's submission rate (1.28 per fight, recent: 1.32) against Estevam's static control approach creates a technical mismatch. Estevam's buggy chokes failed to threaten Bunes; they'll create scramble opportunities for Nascimento. Nascimento's guard work neutralized Hadley's top pressure; it will systematically dismantle Estevam's grinding style.

• Striking Differential: Estevam's -42.78 recent significant striking impact differential versus Nascimento's +7.61 recent significant striking impact differential shows a massive gap. Even with Nascimento's striking limitations, he'll win stand-up exchanges decisively.

• Scramble Dynamics: When Filho pursued back control against Nascimento, his over-commitment created reversals that won Nascimento rounds. Estevam's incomplete submission system and static approach will create similar opportunities. Every failed buggy attempt, every moment of positional stagnation, gives Nascimento openings to reverse or submit.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Nascimento stems from multiple statistical factors:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 6 points—the largest single factor. Nascimento's +4.75 career (recent: +7.61) versus Estevam's -23.67 (recent: -42.78) represents a massive 66-point swing in recent form.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 5 points. Estevam's 21.69 recent attempts per fight shows relentless pressure, but this is offset by his poor 31.46% recent accuracy and Nascimento's 367% recent takedown defense ratio.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 4 points, reinforcing the striking advantage for Nascimento.

• Striking Defense Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage each increased the score by 1 point. Nascimento's 59.43% career (67.32% recent) versus Estevam's 47.22% (46.41% recent) indicates Nascimento will absorb less damage in exchanges.

The model recognizes that while Estevam's takedown volume is impressive, his inability to finish from top position against Bunes, combined with Nascimento's proven submission threat from bottom, creates a stylistic nightmare for the undefeated prospect.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has predicted Nascimento twice, going 2-0. It correctly predicted his decision win over Jafel Filho (score: 0.52) and his submission victory over Carlos Hernandez (score: 0.76). The model has proven accurate in assessing Nascimento's ability to win through grappling exchanges.

The model predicted Estevam once, correctly calling his decision win over Felipe Bunes (score: 0.73). However, that fight exposed significant technical limitations—static control without finishing threat, labored movement, and incomplete submission systems. The model's confidence in Nascimento suggests these vulnerabilities are exploitable against a higher-level grappler.

Conclusion

Nascimento's Oliveira-influenced submission game, proven scrambling ability, and superior striking create multiple paths to victory against Estevam's one-dimensional grinding approach. Estevam's chronic weight management failures, static submission system, and conditioning deficits will be ruthlessly exploited. When Estevam secures top position—and he will, given his takedown volume—Nascimento will immediately threaten with triangles, armbars, and scrambles that Estevam's incomplete grappling can't handle. Expect Nascimento to either submit Estevam in the first two rounds or dominate late as Estevam's conditioning craters. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Nascimento is sound—his technical superiority in the grappling exchanges that will define this fight makes him the clear favorite despite Estevam's undefeated record.