Andrei Arlovski vs. Jake Collier - UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Vera Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Andrei Arlovski by Decision - Split

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Andrei Arlovski
11
11.3
-143
Jake Collier
17
-110

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Andrei Arlovski Jake Collier
Main Stats
Age 43 33
Height 75" 75"
Reach 77" 78"
Win Percentage 62.26% 68.42%
Wins 34 13
Losses 20 7
Wins at Weight Class 19 2
Losses at Weight Class 13 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 48.60% 45.48%
Significant Striking Accuracy 44.41% 42.25%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.557 6.493
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.765 5.588
Knockdowns per Fight 0.423 0.312
Striking Impact Differential 2.35% 3.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 5.86% 11.10%
Striking Output Differential 6.68% 28.60%
Significant Striking Output Differential 10.84% 36.90%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 95.86% 79.65%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 111.38% 88.64%
Striking Defense Percentage 57.08% 52.77%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.211 0.468
Takedowns per Fight 0.380 0.624
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 1.057 2.341
Takedown Defense 25.93% 47.62%
Takedown Accuracy 36.00% 26.67%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.116 3.548
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.279 10.510
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.004 3.195
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.752 1.124
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.054 1.623
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.552 0.874
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.896 0.916
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.144 1.093
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.597 0.364
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.459 0.489
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.696 0.874
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.406 0.448
Andrei Arlovski History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 12, 2022 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jared Vanderaa Andrei Arlovski
Oct. 16, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Carlos Felipe Andrei Arlovski
April 17, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Chase Sherman Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 20, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
Nov. 7, 2020 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tanner Boser Andrei Arlovski
May 13, 2020 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Philipe Lins Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 2, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jairzinho Rozenstruik Jairzinho Rozenstruik
July 20, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Ben Rothwell Andrei Arlovski
April 27, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Augusto Sakai Augusto Sakai
Dec. 29, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Walt Harris None
Sept. 15, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Shamil Abdurakhimov Shamil Abdurakhimov
June 9, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
March 3, 2018 Heavyweight Stefan Struve Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 11, 2017 Heavyweight Junior Albini Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
June 17, 2017 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcin Tybura Marcin Tybura
Jan. 28, 2017 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Francis Ngannou Francis Ngannou
Sept. 3, 2016 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Josh Barnett Josh Barnett
May 8, 2016 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Andrei Arlovski Alistair Overeem
Jan. 2, 2016 Heavyweight Stipe Miocic Andrei Arlovski Stipe Miocic
Sept. 5, 2015 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Frank Mir Andrei Arlovski
May 23, 2015 Heavyweight Travis Browne Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
Sept. 13, 2014 Heavyweight Antonio Silva Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
June 14, 2014 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Brendan Schaub Andrei Arlovski
March 1, 2008 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jake O'Brien Andrei Arlovski
April 21, 2007 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Fabricio Werdum Andrei Arlovski
Dec. 30, 2006 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcio Cruz Andrei Arlovski
July 8, 2006 UFC Heavyweight Title Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia
April 15, 2006 UFC Heavyweight Title Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia
Oct. 7, 2005 UFC Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Paul Buentello Andrei Arlovski
June 4, 2005 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Justin Eilers Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 5, 2005 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski
April 2, 2004 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Wesley Correira Andrei Arlovski
Sept. 26, 2003 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Vladimir Matyushenko Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 22, 2002 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Ian Freeman Andrei Arlovski
March 22, 2002 Heavyweight Pedro Rizzo Andrei Arlovski Pedro Rizzo
June 29, 2001 Heavyweight Ricco Rodriguez Andrei Arlovski Ricco Rodriguez
Nov. 17, 2000 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Aaron Brink Andrei Arlovski
Jake Collier History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 15, 2022 Heavyweight Jake Collier Chase Sherman Jake Collier
June 12, 2021 Heavyweight Carlos Felipe Jake Collier Carlos Felipe
Dec. 5, 2020 Heavyweight Gian Villante Jake Collier Jake Collier
July 25, 2020 Heavyweight Tom Aspinall Jake Collier Tom Aspinall
Nov. 11, 2017 Light Heavyweight Jake Collier Marcel Fortuna Jake Collier
April 15, 2017 Light Heavyweight Devin Clark Jake Collier Devin Clark
May 29, 2016 Middleweight Jake Collier Alberto Uda Jake Collier
Nov. 28, 2015 Middleweight Dongi Yang Jake Collier Dongi Yang
June 6, 2015 Middleweight Ricardo Abreu Jake Collier Jake Collier
Dec. 20, 2014 Middleweight Vitor Miranda Jake Collier Vitor Miranda