Analysis: Jan Blachowicz vs Carlos Ulberg

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Carlos Ulberg to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Jan Blachowicz: 215
Carlos Ulberg: -280

Jan Blachowicz's Breakdown

The former light heavyweight champion brings a blend of calculated power and technical versatility to this matchup. Known for his "Polish Power," Blachowicz's deceptive striking approach has baffled many opponents. Against Alex Pereira, he demonstrated remarkable wrestling initiative by taking Pereira's back early, though cardio issues prevented him from capitalizing. His signature left hook remains dangerous, visibly rattling even elite strikers like Pereira during exchanges.

Blachowicz's technical arsenal features unexpected weapons. Against Magomed Ankalaev, he employed shin-on-shin low kicks that deliberately targeted his opponent's checks—a painful technique most fighters avoid. This unorthodox approach compromised Ankalaev's mobility throughout their fight. Against Aleksandar Rakic, Blachowicz repeatedly landed damaging calf kicks with roughly 90% accuracy (compared to Rakic's 40%), eventually contributing to Rakic's fight-ending knee injury.

His striking strategy often involves intentional deception—throwing wide, telegraphed overhand rights that appear crude but serve to set up more technical follow-ups, including body shots and hooks. This approach confused technically superior strikers like Israel Adesanya, who struggled to read Blachowicz's timing despite his own striking credentials. However, Blachowicz has shown vulnerability to sustained wrestling pressure, as demonstrated when Glover Teixeira dominated him on the ground en route to a submission victory.

Carlos Ulberg's Breakdown

The City Kickboxing product brings elite counter-striking and devastating knockout power to this matchup. Ulberg has refined his approach since his UFC debut loss, developing exceptional patience in waiting for the perfect counter opportunities. His technical striking features a devastating counter left hook, which he showcased perfectly against Nicolae Negumereanu, timing it as his opponent charged forward with an overextended right hand.

Ulberg's jab serves as both a range-finder and a trap-setter. Against Alonzo Menifield, he deliberately threw a "lazy jab" to bait Menifield's aggression, then leaned back to avoid the rush before landing precise counters as Menifield crashed into the fence. This counter-striking approach has earned him four first-round KO/TKO victories in the UFC, demonstrating his exceptional timing and power.

Beyond his counter-striking, Ulberg employs excellent distance management. Against Da Woon Jung, he used his reach advantage to establish a stiff jab and consistently land a slapping left hook when Jung attempted to close distance. While questions about Ulberg's gas tank emerged as that fight progressed, his recent submission victory showed development in his overall MMA game. Against Volkan Oezdemir, Ulberg displayed his ability to adapt his strategy over three rounds, earning a unanimous decision victory against his most accomplished opponent to date.

Analysis and Key Points

• Stylistic chess match: Blachowicz's unorthodox striking deception versus Ulberg's precise counter-striking creates a fascinating tactical puzzle. Blachowicz's wide, telegraphed setups could play directly into Ulberg's counter left hook.

• Leg kick battle: Blachowicz's shin-on-shin kicks and calf attacks will test Ulberg's leg durability. Against Rakic, Blachowicz landed these at 90% accuracy, gradually compromising his opponent's mobility.

• Cardio concerns: Blachowicz has shown cardio issues in recent fights, notably gassing after four minutes against Pereira despite a strong start. Ulberg has also displayed fatigue against Jung without facing intense pressure.

• Counter opportunities: Ulberg consistently punishes aggressive entries, as seen against Menifield and Negumereanu. Blachowicz's tendency to lead with wide overhands could present perfect counter opportunities.

• Wrestling wild card: Blachowicz's takedown ability could disrupt Ulberg's striking rhythm, though his wrestling offense typically diminishes as his cardio fades.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's positive assessment of Ulberg is tempered by several factors:

• Odds decreased the model's score by 11.0, indicating the betting market may be overvaluing Ulberg
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the prediction score by 3.0, reflecting Blachowicz's more challenging competition
• Win Streak Differential decreased the prediction score by 2.0, acknowledging Ulberg's momentum
• Recent Striking Impact Differential increased the prediction score by 1.0, suggesting Ulberg's recent finishing power

Despite these moderating factors, the model still maintains confidence in Ulberg's technical advantages.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a perfect 7-0 record predicting Carlos Ulberg fights, correctly calling his victories against opponents like Volkan Oezdemir, Alonzo Menifield, and Nicolae Negumereanu. The model's consistent accuracy with Ulberg suggests high confidence in its current prediction.

Conversely, WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Blachowicz, incorrectly predicting his victory over Aleksandar Rakic (which Blachowicz won by TKO) but correctly predicting his loss to Alex Pereira. This inconsistency suggests the model may struggle to fully account for Blachowicz's unorthodox effectiveness.

Conclusion

While Blachowicz's experience and unorthodox approach have confused many opponents, Ulberg's precision counter-striking appears perfectly suited to exploit the telegraphed setups Blachowicz relies upon. Blachowicz's cardio issues and Ulberg's perfect knockout record in 2022-2023 further support WolfTicketsAI's prediction of an Ulberg victory.