The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Azat Maksum enters this fight as the favorite, and for good reason. With an impeccable record of 17 wins and zero losses, his UFC debut against Tyson Nam showcased his skills in a split decision victory. Maksum's striking was a key factor, consistently landing jabs and creating significant swelling on Nam's face, demonstrating precision and an ability to inflict cumulative damage over time. His strategy of constant jabs and occasional power shots, combined with a leg-kicking game, helped him control the range and pace. Despite a lack of knockdowns or submissions, his takedown attempts (11 attempted with 2 successful) and solid takedown defense (ratio of 1.0000) suggest a well-rounded skill set. Maksum's striking stats, including a striking defense percentage of 0.5950 and significant striking accuracy of 0.2434, indicate a fighter who's not only aggressive but also careful with his strikes.
Charles Johnson, with 13 wins and 6 losses, is coming off a unanimous decision loss to Rafael Estevam. Johnson's resilience is notable, particularly his ability to regain his vertical base effectively after takedowns, as seen in his fights against Estevam and Durden. This trait, stemming from his athletic background in track and field, enhances his defense against grappling-heavy opponents. His striking, while needing refinement, has moments of effectiveness, but he struggles against southpaws, as observed in his fight with Osbourne. Johnson's significant strike accuracy (0.5520) and striking defense percentage (0.4978) are decent, but his recent performance shows a need for improvement in striking exchanges. His recent fight history, with losses to Durden, Osbourne, and Mokaev, raises concerns about his ability to handle pressure from versatile fighters.
There is no previous fight between Azat Maksum and Charles Johnson.
Azat Maksum's debut fight against Tyson Nam revealed a fighter with a solid striking game and decent grappling. He effectively managed distance with jabs and leg kicks, showing a methodical approach to breaking down his opponent. His low takedown accuracy (0.1818) indicates room for improvement in wrestling, but his successful defense suggests he can handle grapplers.
Charles Johnson's recent fights, especially against Rafael Estevam, exhibit his tenacity and ability to withstand pressure. His ability to get back up from takedowns is impressive, but his striking seems less refined. Johnson's recent fight history indicates difficulty in dealing with opponents who can apply consistent pressure, both in striking and grappling.
Considering both fighters' strengths and weaknesses, Azat Maksum's precision striking and ability to control the fight's pace give him an edge over Charles Johnson. Maksum's methodical approach, combined with his solid takedown defense, positions him well against Johnson, who, while resilient, has shown vulnerabilities in his striking game and against persistent pressure. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Azat Maksum winning is based on his undefeated record, striking accuracy, and his ability to dictate the fight's flow, capitalizing on Johnson's recent struggles in the octagon.
Stat | Azat Maksum | Charles Johnson | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 29 | 33 | 30 | |
Height | 67" | 69" | 67" | |
Reach | 70" | 70" | 68" | |
Win Percentage | 100.00% | 68.42% | 80.74% | |
Wins | 17 | 14 | ||
Losses | 1 | 6 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 1 | 2 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 3 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 24.21% | 62.09% | 48.91% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 24.34% | 55.20% | 41.69% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.067 | 6.361 | 4.531 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.067 | 4.337 | 3.094 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.496 | |
Striking Impact Differential | -52.00% | 26.83% | 1.35% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -35.00% | 14.17% | -0.08% | |
Striking Output Differential | -52.00% | 21.33% | -0.63% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | -24.00% | 8.83% | -2.44% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 313.04% | 67.59% | 90.65% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 286.96% | 90.43% | 121.11% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 61.97% | 54.55% | 45.85% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.852 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 2.000 | 0.189 | 1.419 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 11.000 | 1.320 | 4.126 | |
Takedown Defense | 100.00% | 59.62% | 84.01% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 18.18% | 14.29% | 24.09% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.200 | 2.300 | 1.838 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 11.133 | 5.154 | 4.864 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.800 | 1.383 | 2.002 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.800 | 1.421 | 0.746 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.400 | 1.949 | 1.044 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.267 | 0.817 | 0.809 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.067 | 0.616 | 0.510 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.067 | 0.754 | 0.657 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 2.333 | 1.069 | 0.594 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.000 | 0.717 | 0.260 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.400 | 1.018 | 0.375 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.133 | 0.201 | 0.293 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 15, 2023 | Flyweight | Tyson Nam | Azat Maksum | Azat Maksum |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nov. 18, 2023 | Flyweight | Charles Johnson | Rafael Estevam | Rafael Estevam | |
April 29, 2023 | Flyweight | Cody Durden | Charles Johnson | Cody Durden | |
Feb. 25, 2023 | Catch Weight | Ode Osbourne | Charles Johnson | Ode Osbourne | |
Jan. 14, 2023 | Flyweight | Charles Johnson | Jimmy Flick | Charles Johnson | |
Nov. 19, 2022 | Flyweight | Charles Johnson | Zhalgas Zhumagulov | Charles Johnson | |
July 23, 2022 | Flyweight | Muhammad Mokaev | Charles Johnson | Muhammad Mokaev |