John Castaneda vs. Daniel Santos - UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Daniel Santos by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: m
Weight Class: Catch Weight
Wikipedia: None

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
John Castaneda
21
26
13.1
-195
Daniel Santos
+150

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat John Castaneda Daniel Santos
Main Stats
Age 30 27
Height 66" 67"
Reach 71" 67"
Win Percentage 79.17% 83.33%
Wins 19 11
Losses 6 2
Wins at Weight Class 0 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.58% 21.40%
Significant Striking Accuracy 46.41% 21.40%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.675 3.267
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.942 3.267
Knockdowns per Fight 0.956 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -3.00% -78.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -9.00% -78.00%
Striking Output Differential -10.67% -36.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential -16.33% -36.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 114.61% 281.63%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 129.68% 281.63%
Striking Defense Percentage 52.48% 52.08%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.478 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.000 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.956 2.000
Takedown Defense 66.67% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 0.00% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.124 1.800
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.130 13.133
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.061 6.667
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.510 1.000
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.797 1.600
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.733 1.667
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 1.307 0.467
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.722 0.533
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 2.009 0.133
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.351 0.200
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.478 0.267
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.287 0.133
John Castaneda History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 5, 2022 Bantamweight Miles Johns John Castaneda John Castaneda
Feb. 20, 2021 Bantamweight Eddie Wineland John Castaneda John Castaneda
July 25, 2020 Bantamweight Nathaniel Wood John Castaneda Nathaniel Wood
Daniel Santos History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 9, 2022 Bantamweight Julio Arce Daniel Santos Julio Arce