Analysis: Thiago Moises vs Trey Ogden

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Thiago Moises to Win

Score: 0.0 Odds: Thiago Moises: -210 Trey Ogden: 162

Thiago Moises's Breakdown

Thiago Moises is a skilled and dynamic lightweight fighter known for his well-rounded game. With a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, Moises has demonstrated impressive grappling skills, securing 7 of his 18 career wins by submission. He can smoothly transition from striking to clinch work to wrestling exchanges.

On the feet, Moises utilizes crisp muay thai striking with hard kicks and punches. He maintains a high striking pace, landing 3.07 significant strikes per minute in the UFC. Moises is durable too, absorbing just 3.53 strikes per minute.

Moises will likely look to close the distance, push Ogden against the cage, and either work for takedowns or land knees and elbows in the clinch. Once on the mat, expect him to hunt for submissions from dominant positions. In his last fight, Moises used an opportunistic inside trip to get Ludovit Klein to the canvas where he established back control.

However, Moises is coming off a tough KO loss to Benoit Saint Denis in his previous outing. Getting finished so definitively could impact his confidence stepping into this bout. His takedown defense of 51% is also somewhat concerning.

Trey Ogden's Breakdown

Trey Ogden is primarily a grappler who uses wrestling to control fights. He averages an impressive 2.04 takedowns per 15 minutes in the UFC while defending 100% of his opponents' takedown attempts.

Once Ogden gets the fight to the mat, he is very effective at maintaining top position and racking up control time. In his last win over Kurt Holobaugh, Ogden secured 3 takedowns and amassed over 11 minutes of control. He landed frequent ground strikes throughout to seal the unanimous decision.

On the feet, Ogden has serviceable striking but it's not his strong suit. He absorbs more significant strikes than he lands per minute. His 47% striking defense is worrisome, especially against a muay thai specialist like Moises.

The big question is whether Ogden can consistently take Moises down. In Ogden's loss to Ignacio Bahamondes, he struggled to get the fight to the floor and ended up losing a clear-cut decision on the feet. He'll need to mind Moises' submissions if he does get top position.

Analysis and Key Points

• This shapes up as a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Moises will aim to keep it standing while Ogden wants it on the mat.
• Moises' muay thai could give Ogden problems if he can't secure takedowns. Ogden's striking defense is not great.
• However, if Ogden can wrestle as effectively as usual, he could neutralize Moises' striking and rack up control time.
• Moises has the edge on the feet with his striking volume and variety. Ogden needs to close distance carefully.
• Moises' submissions are very dangerous if Ogden leaves any openings on the ground. Ogden must be wary.
• Ogden's cardio could be a factor if he struggles to get takedowns. He slowed down against Bahamondes.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTickets predicts a Moises win, but only with a score of 0.0. Key factors:

• The odds significantly favor Moises at -210 compared to +162 for Ogden. The model likely sees this as meaningful.
• Moises has advantages in significant striking impact and output both overall and in recent fights. His striking could be decisive.
• However, Ogden has a solid wrestling base with a high takedown average and excellent takedown defense historically.
• The model seems to view this matchup as very close, with the odds narrowly pushing it to favor Moises.

Past Model Performance

In Moises's last 3 fights, WolfTickets correctly predicted his wins over Mitch Ramirez and Christos Giagos but also correctly predicted his KO loss to Benoit Saint Denis.

For Ogden's last 3 fights, WolfTickets was correct in predicting his win over Kurt Holobaugh, but incorrectly picked him to beat Loik Radzhabov and Nikolas Motta (overturned).

So while the model has a decent recent track record for both fighters, the incorrect picks introduce some uncertainty, especially with how close it sees this matchup.

Conclusion

Ultimately, this fight will likely hinge on where it takes place. Moises has the edge if he can keep it standing and let his striking shine. But if Ogden can impose his wrestling as he often does, he could grind out a decision.

The odds and striking numbers favor Moises by a hair, aligning with WolfTickets' 0.0 score prediction. But Ogden's grappling definitely makes him live. This one is a true pick'em with upset potential.