Analysis: Chris Curtis vs Roman Kopylov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Roman Kopylov to Win

Score: 18 Odds: Chris Curtis: +205 Roman Kopylov: -265

Chris Curtis's Breakdown

Curtis brings a patient counter-striking style to the octagon, working behind a high guard and calculated shoulder roll defense. His recent split decision victory over Marc-Andre Barriault showcased his ability to land crisp combinations, though his output has dropped in recent fights. The data shows Curtis landing 5.61 significant strikes per minute with a 51% striking accuracy, but his recent performances indicate a concerning trend - dropping three of his last five bouts.

His fight against Brendan Allen highlighted vulnerabilities when pressured by fighters who mix up their attacks. While Curtis can stuff takedowns effectively, his tendency to shell up against the cage leaves openings for body shots and leg kicks, weapons that Kopylov has shown proficiency with.

Roman Kopylov's Breakdown

Kopylov enters this bout riding serious momentum with four finishes in his last six fights. His technical striking arsenal features devastating liver shots and head kicks, demonstrated perfectly in his KO victory over Josh Fremd. Kopylov's statistical edge shows in his 4.32 significant strikes landed per minute with a 54% accuracy rate.

His recent loss to Anthony Hernandez came via submission, but before that he was on a four-fight win streak with three KO/TKO finishes. Kopylov's ability to manage distance through feints and angle changes makes him particularly dangerous in the pocket, where he's shown excellent ability to chain together combinations.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Exchanges: Both fighters excel in boxing range, but Kopylov's more diverse kicking arsenal gives him an edge in maintaining distance
• Recent Form: Curtis has struggled lately, going 1-3 in his last four, while Kopylov has shown marked improvement with four finishes in his last six
• Technical Matchup: Curtis's high guard defense works well against punches but leaves openings for the body kicks and liver shots that are Kopylov's specialty
• Cardio Considerations: Both fighters maintain good output late into fights, with Kopylov showing better efficiency in his strike selection

Understanding the Prediction

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the model's score by 2.0, reflecting Curtis's recent struggles
• Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0, favoring Kopylov's more damaging strike selection
• Average Striking Output Differential increased the score by 1.0, showing Kopylov's superior volume
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0, highlighting Kopylov's better defensive statistics
• Odds significantly decreased the prediction score by 12.0, suggesting the betting market may be overvaluing Kopylov

Past Model Performance

The model has correctly predicted two of Kopylov's last three fights, including his win over Josh Fremd and loss to Anthony Hernandez. However, its track record with Curtis has been less reliable, incorrectly predicting four of his last six outcomes. This inconsistency in predicting Curtis's fights adds some uncertainty to the current prediction.

Conclusion

The technical matchup favors Kopylov's more diverse striking arsenal and momentum, though the significant odds impact on the model suggests some caution. His ability to attack the body while Curtis shells up, combined with superior defensive statistics, presents a clear path to victory. While Curtis remains dangerous with his counter-striking, his recent performances and stylistic matchup challenges make Kopylov the justified favorite.