Analysis: Marlon Vera vs Aiemann Zahabi

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Aiemann Zahabi to Win

Score: 4
Odds:
Marlon Vera: 108
Aiemann Zahabi: -136

Marlon Vera's Breakdown

Vera enters this fight in the worst form of his UFC career, losing two straight and three of his last four. The 31-year-old has looked increasingly shopworn, particularly in his unanimous decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo at UFC 306. Against Figueiredo, Vera's chronic volume deficiency reached critical levels—he was out-landed 92-60 in total strikes despite Figueiredo's shots carrying visibly more impact. Vera threw maybe one significant strike every thirty seconds, creating dead periods that allowed Figueiredo to establish rhythm with body shots and his signature punch-pull-shoot wrestling entries.

Vera's signature techniques have lost their bite. His jab-to-step-up inside low kick combination—once a reliable setup tool—now lands too high on the shin to generate reactions. Against O'Malley at UFC 299, Vera's static footwork and low output allowed "Sugar" to control distance with darting movements and combinations. Even when Vera successfully landed his inside low kick, he failed to capitalize with follow-up strikes, rendering the technique meaningless.

The body shot vulnerability that plagued him against Rob Font remains exploitable. Font's systematic body work in their 2022 fight visibly affected Vera's output, and Figueiredo replicated this blueprint with left hooks to the liver. Vera's 45.78% striking defense is alarmingly low for a contender, and his recent significant striking defense (46.59%) shows no improvement. He absorbs 3.30 head strikes per minute while landing only 2.30—a losing proposition against any competent striker.

Marlon Vera's Technical Vulnerabilities

Catastrophic Volume Deficiency: Vera's output has cratered to unsustainable levels. Against Figueiredo, extended periods passed where Vera became a spectator. His corner repeatedly implored him to increase activity across multiple fights with zero compliance. This isn't a conditioning issue—Vera claims exceptional cardio in camp—but rather a psychological barrier preventing offensive engagement. Against Zahabi's proximity-based pressure system, Vera's passivity will surrender every round.

Defensive Gaps Against Body Attacks: The left hook to the body has become Vera's kryptonite. Font demonstrated this blueprint, landing systematic body shots that accumulated damage and compromised Vera's willingness to engage. Figueiredo replicated it. Vera's body strike defense (1.20 absorbed per minute) is adequate statistically but fails against opponents who target this area deliberately. His tendency to shell up when pressured creates openings for body work, and once hurt there, his already-low output evaporates completely.

Inability to Establish Offensive Rhythm: Vera's jab—which should establish tempo and create openings—gets thrown maybe 40 times across 15 minutes when it needs to be 40 times per five-minute round. His inside low kick lands too high to hurt or force reactions. When opponents don't respect his setups, Vera has no backup plan. Against Sandhagen's high-volume assault, Vera couldn't find answers. Against O'Malley's movement, he stood flat-footed watching. Zahabi's arm's-length pressure will present similar problems with no clear solution.

Aiemann Zahabi's Breakdown

Zahabi returns to the bantamweight division riding a five-fight win streak, including a stunning upset of Jose Aldo in May 2025. The 37-year-old has evolved into a tactically mature fighter who neutralizes opponents through proximity-based pressure rather than traditional striking exchanges. Against Aldo, Zahabi implemented a brilliant gameplan: standing directly on top of the Brazilian legend at arm's length, using abbreviated jabs and constant feinting to force defensive reactions without allowing counter-striking windows.

His signature technique—the arm's-length jab feint with high-guard hand checking—proved devastatingly effective against Aldo's slip-counter system. By eliminating the distance required for Aldo's slip-left hook to function, Zahabi turned the former champion's greatest weapon into wasted motion. When Aldo slipped, there was no incoming punch—just another feint. This forced Aldo into constant defensive expenditure that drained his gas tank by Round 3.

Zahabi's step-up left knee from close range adds a crucial dimension to his pressure game. Against Pedro Munhoz at UFC 309, he mixed this technique with body attacks while maintaining his smothering distance control. His defensive wrestling showed significant improvement—when Munhoz secured a back body lock, Zahabi feinted a Granby roll, causing Munhoz to post with one hand, then stood and peeled the grip apart. This is textbook defensive grappling that few fighters execute under pressure.

The Javid Basharat fight demonstrated Zahabi's adaptability. After struggling early with Basharat's varied offense (right uppercuts, defensive sidekicks), Zahabi adjusted by crowding distance and timing counter low kicks to the jab. By Round 3, Basharat was exhausted from failed takedown attempts while Zahabi controlled the pace. His recent significant striking defense (77.80%) ranks elite, and he lands 4.37 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 2.51—a 2.65:1 ratio that reflects his defensive responsibility.

Aiemann Zahabi's Technical Vulnerabilities

Susceptibility to Explosive Finishing Sequences: Against Aldo in Round 3, Zahabi was hurt badly and caught twice by the same technique—a kick to the head while standing from the ground with hands still on the canvas. This revealed poor crisis management and pattern recognition under duress. If Vera lands his rare power shot (the head kick that finished Dominick Cruz, for example), Zahabi's defensive awareness during compromised positions could be exploited. However, Vera's current output makes this scenario unlikely.

Limited Offensive Pathways: Zahabi's gameplan is essentially one-dimensional—establish arm's-length pressure or struggle. In Round 1 against Aldo, when forced to fight at traditional boxing range, Zahabi was consistently beaten to the punch by slip-left hook counters. He has no effective backup plan if opponents solve his proximity puzzle. Against rangier strikers with strong backward movement, Zahabi's lack of sophisticated ring-cutting could be problematic. But Vera's static footwork and low activity make him an ideal opponent for this approach.

Vulnerability at Extended Range: When Zahabi attempted conventional 1-2 combinations from proper distance against Aldo, he was countered cleanly every time. His power generation from traditional range is limited, and his striking accuracy drops significantly when not implementing his arm's-length system. Elite counter-strikers who can maintain distance would expose this gap, but Vera's recent performances show zero ability to enforce his preferred range or punish entries.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a nightmare scenario for Vera's current approach. Zahabi's proximity-based pressure directly counters Vera's need for space to throw his sporadic power strikes. When Zahabi establishes arm's-length position—which he will, given Vera's passive footwork—Vera's already-low output will crater further. The constant feinting and hand checking will force Vera into defensive reactions without giving him clean looks for his step-up inside low kick or occasional right hand.

Vera's body shot vulnerability plays directly into Zahabi's recent technical additions. Against Munhoz, Zahabi mixed body attacks with his pressure system. Vera's tendency to shell up when pressured creates openings for body work, and once hurt there, his willingness to engage disappears. Zahabi won't need to finish Vera—he just needs to accumulate body damage while maintaining his smothering distance.

The wrestling dynamic heavily favors Zahabi. Vera's 37.50% takedown defense is poor, and Zahabi's defensive grappling has improved dramatically. If Vera attempts desperate takedowns late (as he did against O'Malley), Zahabi will defend and potentially secure top position. Vera's submission threat from bottom is real (0.83 submissions per fight), but Zahabi's positional awareness—demonstrated against Munhoz's back body lock—suggests he won't fall into obvious traps.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Zahabi will immediately establish his arm's-length pressure, standing on top of Vera and throwing abbreviated jabs with constant feinting. Vera will attempt his step-up inside low kick, but Zahabi's proximity will disrupt the technique's effectiveness. Vera's jab—already underutilized—will become completely ineffective at this range. Zahabi will accumulate volume while Vera waits for openings that never materialize. Expect Zahabi to out-land Vera 2:1 or better in these frames.

Championship Rounds (3-5): Vera's cardio is theoretically strong, but his psychological barriers to output don't improve late. Against Figueiredo, Vera's Round 5 showed no urgency despite being down on cards. Zahabi's conditioning at 37 is a question mark, but his tactical approach conserves energy—he's not throwing power shots or wrestling aggressively. The proximity system requires less physical exertion than traditional striking. Vera's desperation could lead to wild techniques (flying knees, spinning attacks), but Zahabi's defensive positioning should neutralize these low-percentage attempts.

If Vera somehow hurts Zahabi, his finishing instinct remains dangerous—the Dominick Cruz head kick TKO proved he can capitalize on single moments. But Zahabi's improved defensive awareness and Vera's current reluctance to follow up on successful strikes make this scenario unlikely. More probable: Zahabi continues accumulating volume while Vera's corner screams for activity that never comes.

Analysis and Key Points

• Volume Disparity: Zahabi's 4.37 significant strikes per minute versus Vera's 3.97 favors the Canadian, but the real gap is in recent form—Zahabi's output has increased (4.37 recent) while Vera's has declined (3.97 recent). Expect Zahabi to out-land Vera by 50+ total strikes.

• Defensive Metrics: Zahabi's 77.80% recent significant striking defense versus Vera's 46.59% is a chasm. Vera will absorb nearly twice as many clean shots per minute, accumulating damage that compounds his reluctance to engage.

• Body Attack Blueprint: Font and Figueiredo demonstrated that systematic body work destroys Vera's output. Zahabi has incorporated this technique and will target Vera's midsection from his arm's-length position.

• Proximity Nullification: Vera's techniques require specific range—his inside low kick needs space to step up, his occasional right hand needs distance to generate power. Zahabi's smothering pressure eliminates these windows.

• Age and Mileage: Both fighters are past prime (Vera 31, Zahabi 37), but Zahabi's limited fight schedule (one fight per year historically) has preserved him physically. Vera's 33 UFC fights and recent damage accumulation show in his declining metrics.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily weights recent performance, and the contrast here is stark:

• Recent Win Percentage: Zahabi's 100% (5-0 streak) versus Vera's 33% (1-2 in last 3) decreased the model's confidence in Vera by 3.0 points—the largest single factor.

• Odds: Despite Vera being the slight betting favorite (+108), the model increased Zahabi's score by 2.0 points based on this discrepancy, suggesting the betting market undervalues Zahabi's recent form.

• Reach: Zahabi's 68" reach versus Vera's 70" favors the taller fighter by 2.0 points, but this advantage is negated by Zahabi's proximity-based system that eliminates reach advantages.

• Recent Significant Striking Defense: Zahabi's elite 77.80% versus Vera's declining 46.59% added 2.0 points, reflecting the defensive gap that will allow Zahabi to accumulate volume safely.

• TrueSkill: Vera's higher skill rating (34.17 vs 28.05) decreased Zahabi's score by 1.0, but this metric reflects career accomplishments rather than current form. Vera's peak performances (Cruz KO, Font decision) are years removed from his current decline.

The model essentially identifies this as a "faded contender versus surging veteran" scenario where recent trajectory matters more than historical pedigree. Zahabi's tactical evolution and five-fight streak outweigh Vera's superior career resume.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has mixed history with both fighters:

Vera (2-4 record): The model correctly predicted his wins over Munhoz and Cruz but failed on the Figueiredo, Sandhagen, and Font fights. The Sandhagen miss (predicted Vera, lost split decision) was close, but the Figueiredo failure (predicted Vera with 0.52 confidence, lost unanimous) mirrors this fight's dynamics—overestimating Vera's ability to implement his game against pressure fighters.

Zahabi (3-2 record): The model nailed his wins over Munhoz, Aoriqileng, and Basharat but incorrectly favored Aldo and Turcios against him. The Aldo miss is particularly relevant—the model gave Aldo 0.61 confidence, underestimating Zahabi's tactical adjustments and proximity-based system. This suggests the model may still be undervaluing Zahabi's evolved approach.

The 4-point confidence score reflects uncertainty about Zahabi's ability to replicate his Aldo performance against a different stylistic challenge. However, Vera's current form makes him a more favorable matchup than the Aldo fight—less hand speed, worse cardio utilization, and zero ability to maintain distance.

Conclusion

Aiemann Zahabi wins a clear unanimous decision, likely 49-46 or 50-45. He establishes his arm's-length pressure system early, forcing Vera into constant defensive reactions without allowing clean looks for power strikes. Vera's chronic volume deficiency—already catastrophic—becomes terminal against Zahabi's smothering proximity. The body attacks accumulate damage that further suppresses Vera's willingness to engage.

Vera's corner will scream for activity between rounds, and Vera will nod and change nothing—the same pattern that plagued his Figueiredo and O'Malley losses. Zahabi will out-land him 2:1 or better in total strikes, mixing jabs, body shots, and step-up knees while maintaining defensive responsibility. Vera's submission threat from bottom is real, but Zahabi's improved defensive grappling and positional awareness will keep the fight standing where his tactical system dominates.

The finish is possible if Zahabi hurts Vera with body work and swarms, but more likely he cruises to decision victory, proving his Aldo performance was no fluke. Vera's decline continues, while Zahabi's late-career resurgence positions him for a top-15 ranking at bantamweight.