Analysis: Manon Fiorot vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Manon Fiorot to Win

Score: 17
Odds:
Manon Fiorot: -230
Jasmine Jasudavicius: +176

Manon Fiorot's Breakdown

Fiorot enters this matchup riding a tough loss to Valentina Shevchenko but remains one of the division's most technical strikers. Her southpaw karate base creates problems for orthodox opponents through sharp straight lefts and body kicks. Against Rose Namajunas, she wobbled Rose in the first round with a hand trap-left straight-leaping right hook combination, showcasing her power generation. Her bladed stance provides knockout power but creates vulnerabilities to leg kicks.

The Shevchenko fight exposed critical flaws in Fiorot's counter-striking defense. Every time she tried to close distance, Shevchenko's right hook landed flush on her nose, causing early bleeding and a knockdown in Round 4. When Fiorot pressed forward, she got caught with spinning strikes and counters. Against Erin Blanchfield, she landed 172 of 359 significant strikes while defending 3 of 4 takedowns through early underhook establishment and hip awareness.

Fiorot's signature weapons include her 1-2-1 combination, counter right hook, and sidekick to the body. Against Namajunas, she used front kicks to the solar plexus to manage distance, similar to Adesanya's teep game. Her clinch work involves immediate hand clasping in Thai positions, landing short elbows when opponents duck under her telegraphed right hooks. She secured a unanimous decision over Jennifer Maia using step-up inside low kicks with her lead leg, mixing in left hooks to body and head while faking kicks to step through with punches.

Manon Fiorot's Technical Vulnerabilities

Counter-Striking Susceptibility: Fiorot gets timed consistently when entering range. Against Shevchenko, the right hook landed repeatedly as Fiorot closed distance predictably. She loads up her own right hook dramatically, sometimes swinging so hard she loses balance when missing—evident in Round 3 against Rose when she threw herself off balance against the fence. Her entries lack feints or varied angles, making her predictable for technical counter-strikers.

Limited Combination Punching: Fiorot relies almost exclusively on single power strikes rather than multi-punch sequences. Against Rose, when Namajunas ducked under her right hooks, Fiorot failed to follow with head kicks or uppercuts. This rigidity persisted even when Rose found counters—Fiorot continued the same approach rather than adapting. Her technical game is generally messy but compensated by strong athleticism in a mediocre division.

Defensive Gaps During Forward Pressure: When pressing forward, Fiorot's defensive awareness diminishes. The Shevchenko knockdown in Round 4 came when Fiorot appeared to be winning the round until she got caught pressing forward. Her head movement is minimal when exiting exchanges, leaving her vulnerable to counters as she resets her stance after 2-3 strikes.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Breakdown

Jasudavicius brings relentless pressure and a dangerous submission game, securing three third-round finishes in 2024 alone. She recently submitted Jessica Andrade with a rear-naked choke and dominated Mayra Bueno Silva over three rounds. Her 5'7" frame and 68" reach (3 inches longer than Fiorot's 65") give her physical advantages in clinch exchanges where she thrives.

Against Ariane da Silva, Jasudavicius showcased her resourcefulness by converting a kick to the face into a takedown opportunity, scooping under with both arms and driving forward. Once on the ground, she establishes the bounded crucifix position and delivers accumulating strikes. Her brown belt in BJJ shows in her back-taking sequences—she secured submissions over both Andrade and da Silva by maintaining rear mount and finishing with chokes.

Jasudavicius's cardio is exceptional. She maintains brutal pace through three rounds, often overwhelming opponents late. Against Priscila Cachoeira, she delivered effortless takedowns and controlled ground positions before securing a D'Arce choke. Her takedown accuracy sits at 43%, attempting 5.7 per fight and landing 2.5. She absorbs 0.65 leg kicks per minute while landing only 0.29, suggesting she doesn't prioritize low kick exchanges.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Technical Vulnerabilities

Striking Defense Deficiencies: Jasudavicius's 51% significant striking defense is exploitable against technical strikers. Against Natalia Silva, she got thoroughly outclassed on the feet, chasing Silva around the cage and even running head-first into the fence in Round 3. Silva neutralized her pressure with movement and counter-striking, exposing Jasudavicius's predictable forward pressure without effective striking to set it up.

Telegraphed Entries: Against Tracy Cortez, Jasudavicius lost a unanimous decision because her takedown attempts were too obvious. She charges forward looking for clinches, making her vulnerable to intercepting strikes. Her low takedown accuracy (2 of 56 attempts documented) means she often eats damage trying to close distance. Technical strikers who maintain range punish her entries consistently.

Limited Striking Variety: Jasudavicius lands only 3.6 significant strikes per minute compared to Fiorot's 5.6. Her head strikes absorbed per minute (2.45) exceed what she lands (2.46), showing she takes damage in exchanges. Against Miranda Maverick, she struggled when unable to establish her grinding clinch game, revealing her one-dimensional approach when opponents deny her preferred positions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Fiorot's technical striking and distance management directly counter Jasudavicius's pressure-heavy approach. When Jasudavicius charges forward seeking clinches, she'll run into Fiorot's front kicks, sidekicks to the body, and straight lefts. Fiorot's 65" reach disadvantage (68" for Jasudavicius) is misleading—Fiorot's karate-based striking creates more effective range through footwork and kick-heavy combinations.

Jasudavicius's best path involves surviving early striking exchanges and dragging Fiorot into prolonged clinch battles. But Fiorot defended 3 of 4 takedowns against Blanchfield through underhook establishment and hip awareness. Against Maia's clinch attempts, Fiorot consistently fought to maintain striking range. Jasudavicius's 33% takedown defense means if Fiorot shoots (though she rarely does at 1 of 29 attempts), she could secure top position.

The critical question is whether Jasudavicius can close distance without absorbing devastating counters. Fiorot's right hook that wobbled Namajunas and her spinning strikes against Shevchenko suggest she'll punish Jasudavicius's predictable entries. Silva's blueprint—maintain distance, counter her forward pressure, defend takedowns with head positioning—is exactly what Fiorot excels at.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Fiorot establishes her striking range immediately, using front kicks and sidekicks to keep Jasudavicius at bay. Jasudavicius eats counters trying to close distance, similar to how Shevchenko timed Fiorot but reversed. Fiorot's technical superiority and power generation give her clear 10-9 rounds.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Jasudavicius survives early damage, she increases takedown attempts desperately. But Fiorot's improved defensive wrestling (evident against Blanchfield) allows her to stuff shots and reset to striking range. Jasudavicius's cardio keeps her competitive, but she's losing rounds on volume and damage.

Championship Rounds: This is Jasudavicius's best chance—her third-round finishes show she thrives late. But Fiorot's cardio remained strong through five rounds against Shevchenko despite early adversity. If Jasudavicius hasn't secured takedowns by Round 3, her desperation makes her even more hittable. Fiorot's technical striking continues accumulating damage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Differential Dominance: Fiorot's +40.75 significant striking output differential dwarfs Jasudavicius's +6.1, showing Fiorot consistently outlanding opponents while Jasudavicius grinds out narrow advantages
• Takedown Defense Mismatch: Fiorot's improved TDD (86% defense rate) against Jasudavicius's 43% accuracy means most takedown attempts fail, forcing Jasudavicius into striking exchanges where she's overmatched
• Power vs Pressure: Fiorot's 7 KO wins demonstrate finishing power that Jasudavicius (2 KO wins) lacks, making every exchange dangerous for the Canadian
• Recent Form Contrast: Jasudavicius rides a 4-fight win streak but faced declining opponents (Andrade "should be retired," Cachoeira missed weight), while Fiorot competed for the title against Shevchenko
• Stylistic Nightmare: Silva's unanimous decision blueprint over Jasudavicius mirrors Fiorot's strengths—technical striking, movement, takedown defense

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems primarily from odds (increasing score by 12 points), reflecting Fiorot's status as a heavy favorite. Her significant striking impact differential (+5 points) and recent significant striking impact differential (+3 points) show consistent damage output. Fiorot's striking defense percentage (+2 points) indicates she avoids damage while landing, crucial against Jasudavicius's volume approach.

Recent striking impact differential (+2 points) confirms Fiorot's maintained form despite the Shevchenko loss. Her recent significant striking defense percentage (+1 point) shows improved defensive awareness.

Interestingly, TrueSkill (-1 point), win streak differential (-1 point), and recent win percentage (-1 point) slightly favor Jasudavicius due to her 4-fight streak versus Fiorot's recent loss. Recent takedowns attempted per fight (-1 point) suggests Jasudavicius's grappling pressure creates minor concern, but the striking differentials overwhelm these factors.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Fiorot, going 2-3 in predictions. It correctly predicted her wins over Namajunas (0.80 confidence) and Maia (0.20 confidence) but failed on the Shevchenko fight (0.61 confidence) and incorrectly favored her opponents against Cerminara and Blanchfield. The model's 40% accuracy with Fiorot suggests caution, though the striking differentials here are more pronounced than in previous matchups.

For Jasudavicius, the model is 4-1, correctly predicting her recent wins over Andrade (0.74), Silva (0.71), and da Silva (0.58), while incorrectly favoring Maverick over her. The model's 80% accuracy with Jasudavicius shows strong pattern recognition, but this matchup presents her toughest stylistic test.

Conclusion

Fiorot's technical striking, power generation, and improved takedown defense make her a nightmare matchup for Jasudavicius's pressure-heavy, grappling-focused approach. While Jasudavicius's cardio and submission threats create late-round danger, she'll absorb too much damage trying to close distance against Fiorot's karate-based striking. The Silva fight showed exactly how technical strikers dismantle Jasudavicius—Fiorot possesses superior versions of those same tools. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Fiorot by decision or late TKO reflects the significant technical gap between these fighters.