Analysis: Charles Jourdain vs Davey Grant

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Jourdain to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Charles Jourdain: -178
Davey Grant: 138

Charles Jourdain's Breakdown

Jourdain brings a dynamic, switch-hitting approach with explosive offensive bursts. His signature weapons include the southpaw left high kick, which he deploys both as an offensive weapon and a defensive tool to create space. Against Victor Henry in November 2024, Jourdain showcased his evolved clinch game—using foot sweeps (ashi barai) to create scrambles and finishing with a power guillotine after establishing a jab-circle pattern for two rounds, then breaking it with a devastating left hook-right straight combination that dropped Henry in round three.

His body work has become increasingly sophisticated. Against Jean Silva, he repeatedly threw the southpaw left high kick, though Silva's feinting disrupted his rhythm. When Silva backed him up—inverting Jourdain's usual pressure game—he became predictable, shooting for takedowns after missed kicks. This pattern got him knocked out in round two when Silva defended a single-leg attempt and landed a vertical-fist uppercut.

Jourdain's guillotine has evolved into a legitimate finishing threat. Against Ricardo Ramos, he landed an elbow that split Ramos' head after absorbing a counter elbow himself, demonstrating exceptional durability and immediate offensive response when hurt. His stance-switching creates unpredictable angles, particularly his right hand counters when opponents switch to southpaw.

Recent form shows inconsistency: he's 2-2 in his last four, with losses to elite competition (Silva, Woodson by split decision) but impressive finishes over Henry and Ramos. His volume striking—doubling opponents' output like he did against Kron Gracie—remains a constant threat.

Charles Jourdain's Technical Vulnerabilities

Pressure Defense Deficiency: When backed up consistently, Jourdain struggles. Julian Erosa "melted him under pressure," and Shane Burgos forced him to abandon his kicking game by walking him down. Against Silva, being backed up led to increasingly desperate techniques and the knockout loss. He retreats straight back rather than circling, getting trapped against the fence where his offensive options narrow.

Predictable Kick-to-Takedown Pattern: After missed high kicks, Jourdain reflexively shoots for takedowns. Silva exploited this by limp-legging out and landing the finish. Against Woodson, his single-leg attempts in open space were neutralized by Woodson's length allowing him to hop and pivot away. This readable pattern creates counter opportunities for prepared opponents.

Guard Retention Issues: When taken down, Jourdain fixates on guillotine attempts even when the position isn't optimal. Against Nathaniel Wood, he repeatedly sat up on one elbow hunting for guillotines that weren't available instead of working to stand, spending extended periods in disadvantageous positions. He struggles to pummel his legs inside from closed guard to create scramble opportunities.

Davey Grant's Breakdown

Grant operates as a patient, intelligent striker who sets up everything through layers. His signature weapon is the wide right hand to the body, thrown palm-down to target the liver and floating ribs. Against Ramon Taveras in December 2024, Grant repeatedly faded backward as Taveras threw his left straight, letting it brush past his ear before countering with devastating right hooks to the body. This body work accumulated, eventually opening up head strikes.

His technical diversity is exceptional—mixing right front kicks, right round kicks, left side kicks, left teeps, and spinning back fists to prevent opponents from establishing rhythm. Against Da'Mon Blackshear in July 2024, Grant escaped back control through textbook mechanics: controlling the attacking hand, rotating to his side, freeing the bottom hook first, then using Blackshear's weight against him. When Blackshear shot reactive takedowns after body shots, Grant's hands were already positioned for underhooks from throwing body strikes.

Grant's ring awareness is elite. Mid-execution of a step-up inside low kick against Blackshear, he recognized the distance was wrong and aborted to a double forearm guard rather than committing to a vulnerable position. This real-time threat assessment and cognitive flexibility separates him from most fighters.

At 38 years old with an 18-month layoff from a serious neck injury behind him, Grant fights roughly once per year. Despite this, he's won three straight (Blackshear, Taveras, Assuncao via inverted triangle). His low kicks are consistently well-disguised through upper-body feints and hand fighting.

Davey Grant's Technical Vulnerabilities

Step-Up Kick Vulnerability: Grant's inside low kicks create exploitable windows. His lead leg leaves the ground while his hands are in transit. Against better-timed opponents than Blackshear, this moment could be catastrophically punished with counter right hands or level changes. The technique itself is inherently risky despite his excellent recovery awareness.

Wide Body Shot Positioning: When throwing his palm-down right to the body, Grant's head position becomes predictable—leaning to his left and slightly forward. He squares up at close range during this technique. Opponents comfortable in tight quarters could time uppercuts or short hooks during this telegraphed head movement pattern.

Infrequent Competition: Fighting once per year creates performance inconsistency. While Grant appears to improve between outings, the long layoffs mean he's perpetually re-establishing timing and cage awareness. This affects his ability to build momentum and develop the pattern recognition that comes from frequent competition. At 38, his activity rate and age trajectory may limit his ceiling.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup hinges on who controls the pace and distance. Jourdain's explosive, volume-based pressure game directly challenges Grant's measured, setup-heavy approach. Grant's body work could be devastating against Jourdain's tendency to shell up when pressured—those wide right hands to the body would target exactly where Jourdain becomes vulnerable when backed to the fence.

Jourdain's predictable kick-to-takedown pattern plays directly into Grant's strengths. When Jourdain throws his southpaw left high kick and it misses, he shoots for takedowns. Grant's hands will already be in underhook position from throwing body shots, allowing him to stuff these reactive attempts and pull Jourdain upright—exactly what he did to Blackshear.

Grant's patient, feint-heavy approach could disrupt Jourdain's rhythm similarly to how Silva's feinting backed him up and forced desperate techniques. If Grant can establish his jab and body work early, he'll create the same pressure dynamic that has consistently troubled Jourdain.

However, Jourdain's volume and stance-switching could overwhelm Grant's once-per-year timing. Jourdain throws in explosive bursts—doubling opponents' output—which could catch Grant between his measured setups. Jourdain's guillotine threat from failed takedowns adds another dimension Grant must respect.

The bantamweight move favors Grant's compact frame and power. Jourdain, typically a featherweight, may struggle with the increased speed and power at 135. Grant's experience at bantamweight gives him a significant edge in understanding the division's pace.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Grant will establish his jab and look to time Jourdain's entries with body shots. Jourdain will likely start with his hit-and-exit strategy, throwing single strikes and circling out. Grant's patient approach means he'll absorb some early volume while reading Jourdain's patterns. The key exchange will come when Jourdain throws his first high kick—if Grant times a counter or Jourdain shoots the predictable takedown, Grant's underhooks will be waiting.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Grant's body work accumulates, Jourdain will start shelling up when pressured to the fence. This is where Grant's wide right hands become most effective. Jourdain may try to increase volume to overwhelm Grant's timing, but this plays into Grant's counter-striking. If Jourdain can establish his jab-circle pattern like he did against Henry, he could frustrate Grant's setups.

Championship Rounds: Grant's once-per-year activity becomes a question mark, but his recent performances show solid cardio. Jourdain's volume typically remains high, but if Grant's body work has landed consistently, Jourdain's output may diminish. The finish likely comes from Grant timing a body shot as Jourdain pressures, or Jourdain catching Grant between setups with a combination.

Analysis and Key Points

• Jourdain's Volume vs Grant's Patience: Jourdain doubles opponents' strike output, but Grant's measured approach has handled aggressive opponents before. Grant's feinting could disrupt Jourdain's rhythm.

• Body Work Advantage Grant: Grant's wide right hands to the body target Jourdain's exact vulnerability when pressured to the fence. Jourdain shells up under pressure, creating openings for these strikes.

• Predictable Patterns: Jourdain's kick-to-takedown sequence is readable. Grant's underhook positioning from body strikes will stuff these attempts.

• Pressure Dynamics: If Grant can back Jourdain up like Silva and Burgos did, Jourdain becomes desperate and vulnerable. Grant's feinting and jab could establish this pressure.

• Guillotine Threat: Jourdain's power guillotine finished Henry and nearly finished Woodson. Grant must be cautious during scrambles.

• Age and Activity: Grant at 38 fighting once per year faces Jourdain's youth and activity. Timing could be an issue early for Grant.

• Weight Class Change: Jourdain moving down to bantamweight is his first fight at 135 in the UFC. The speed and power increase could surprise him.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Jourdain based on several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 7.0—Jourdain's -178 line suggests bookmakers see him as the clear favorite, and the model agrees with this assessment.

• TrueSkill increased the score by 3.0—Jourdain's skill rating (26.61 mu) is lower than Grant's (30.03 mu), but the model accounts for recent performance and stylistic factors that favor Jourdain.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0—Jourdain's recent striking impact (13.16) shows he's landing more damaging strikes than absorbing, suggesting offensive effectiveness.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0—Jourdain's recent form shows consistent striking success, which the model values.

• Reach increased the score by 1.0—Both fighters have identical 69-inch reach, but Jourdain's stance-switching and kicking game may utilize range more effectively.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0—Jourdain's 33% recent win rate (2-4 in last six) is concerning, but the model still favors him overall based on other factors.

The model sees Jourdain's volume striking, stance-switching, and offensive output as advantages that outweigh Grant's technical precision and body work. The odds heavily favor Jourdain, and the model follows this assessment despite Grant's recent three-fight win streak.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. For Jourdain, it correctly predicted his wins over Henry (0.51 score) and Gracie (0.29 score), but incorrectly favored Woodson (0.27), Ramos (0.70), Wood (0.74), Burgos (0.76), and Vannata (0.64). The model has been wrong about Jourdain more often than right, particularly when favoring his opponents.

For Grant, the model correctly predicted his wins over Taveras (0.53 score) and Smolka (0.72 score), but incorrectly favored Blackshear (0.71), Assuncao (0.70), and Marcos (0.36). The model has struggled with Grant's ability to upset favored opponents.

This history suggests caution—the model tends to underestimate both fighters' upset potential. Grant's recent streak of proving the model wrong (three straight wins as underdog or pick'em) is particularly notable. However, the model's confidence in Jourdain here is based primarily on the odds and striking metrics rather than historical prediction success.

Conclusion

Charles Jourdain takes this fight through accumulated volume and offensive pressure. Grant's patient, setup-heavy approach gets overwhelmed by Jourdain's explosive bursts and stance-switching. While Grant's body work could be effective if he establishes it early, Jourdain's hit-and-exit strategy prevents Grant from landing the sustained body shots that broke down Taveras and Blackshear. Jourdain's predictable kick-to-takedown pattern becomes less exploitable because his volume striking keeps Grant defensive rather than positioned for underhooks. The bantamweight debut doesn't significantly hinder Jourdain—his frame suits 135, and the speed increase plays to his explosive style. Grant's once-per-year timing struggles against Jourdain's constant activity and offensive output. Jourdain likely wins by decision through superior volume and striking diversity, though Grant's power keeps the finish threat alive throughout. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Jourdain at a confidence score of 5 reflects the stylistic advantages and odds assessment favoring the Canadian's aggressive, high-output approach over Grant's measured technical game.