Analysis: Ricky Simon vs Javid Basharat

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Javid Basharat to Win

Score: 17
Odds:
Ricky Simon: +230
Javid Basharat: -310

Ricky Simon's Breakdown

Ricky Simon's recent outings have been marked by inconsistency, losing three times in his last bouts against Vinicius Oliveira, Mario Bautista, and Song Yadong. Simon's bread and butter has always been his wrestling and relentless pace. Against Song Yadong, he was overwhelmed by Yadong's striking, getting knocked out in the fifth round, which exposed his vulnerability to high-level strikers. Simon is adept at pushing opponents to the fence and shooting for takedowns, as seen in his submission win over Jack Shore. However, his inability to keep the pace up, especially against strikers with solid defensive counters like Bautista, has been a recurring issue.

Javid Basharat's Breakdown

Javid Basharat emerges as a technically sound striker with excellent striking accuracy and adaptability. Despite a setback against Aiemann Zahabi, where his game plan unraveled due to Zahabi’s counter tactics, Basharat has consistently shown resilience. His unanimous decision win over Mateus Mendonca highlighted his strategic discipline and effective use of the “Pep Step” to counter. Basharat blends his technical striking with smart grappling, evidenced by controlled performances against Tony Gravely and using precise counters to keep opponents at bay.

Analysis and Key Points

• Ricky Simon's Vulnerabilities: Recent knockout loss to Song Yadong suggests susceptibility to elite strikers.
• Cardio and Pace: Ricky’s past cardio issues, particularly against relentless pressure, could be a factor.
• Javid’s Striking and Adaptability: Basharat’s ability to switch stances and adapt mid-fight is a strategic advantage.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds (-310 for Basharat) decreased the model's score by 11.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight significantly increased the model’s score by 4, highlighting Basharat’s offensive grappling edge.
• Recent Win Percentage slightly reduced the score by 2, reflecting Ricky's recent struggles.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has predicted Simon precisely two consecutive times against Vinicius Oliveira and Mario Bautista, highlighting a concern regarding its predictions for his fights. On the other hand, Basharat often defies the odds, overcoming model expectations against Tony Gravely.

Conclusion

Basharat’s comprehensive striking and adaptability outshine Simon’s wrestling, especially considering Simon's recent defensive lapses. Expect Javid Basharat's mixture of precision striking and strategic adaptability to secure victory. WolfTicketsAI confidently backs Javid Basharat in this match-up.