Andre Fili vs. Melquizael Costa - UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Melquizael Costa by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Seattle, Washington, USA
Elevation: 54.00m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted
Andre Fili
0
6
-113
Melquizael Costa
7
-113

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Andre Fili

Weight Class: Featherweight

Final Confidence: 0.0

Confidence Adjustments

Value: -30.0%

Reason: Base confidence < 10, decreased by 30%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Andre Fili

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • June 29, 2024: Andre Fili won against Cub Swanson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
  • February 10, 2024: Andre Fili lost against Dan Ige. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:43. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • December 16, 2023: Andre Fili won against Lucas Almeida. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:32. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 22, 2023: Andre Fili lost against Nathaniel Wood. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • September 17, 2022: Andre Fili won against Bill Algeo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 29 - 28. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • April 30, 2022: Andre Fili lost against Joanderson Brito. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:41. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 26, 2021: Andre Fili had an inconclusive result against Daniel Pineda. The fight went the distance (3 Rnd (5-5-5)).
  • October 31, 2020: Andre Fili lost against Bryce Mitchell. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • June 13, 2020: Andre Fili won against Charles Jourdain. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 29 - 28.
  • January 18, 2020: Andre Fili lost against Sodiq Yusuff. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 13, 2019: Andre Fili won against Sheymon Moraes. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:07. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 17, 2019: Andre Fili won against Myles Jury. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • August 25, 2018: Andre Fili lost against Michael Johnson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 30 - 27. 28 - 29.
  • January 27, 2018: Andre Fili won against Dennis Bermudez. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 30 - 27. 28 - 29.
  • October 21, 2017: Andre Fili won against Artem Lobov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • July 29, 2017: Andre Fili lost against Calvin Kattar. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • October 1, 2016: Andre Fili won against Hacran Dias. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • April 23, 2016: Andre Fili lost against Yair Rodriguez. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:15. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • November 21, 2015: Andre Fili won against Gabriel Benitez. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:13. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • March 21, 2015: Andre Fili lost against Godofredo Pepey. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:14. Method of victory: Submission.
  • October 25, 2014: Andre Fili won against Felipe Arantes. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • April 26, 2014: Andre Fili lost against Max Holloway. The fight ended in round 3 at 3:39. Method of victory: Submission.
  • October 19, 2013: Andre Fili won against Jeremy Larsen. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:53. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
Melquizael Costa

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • June 15, 2024: Melquizael Costa won against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. The fight ended in round 3 at 1:50. Method of victory: Submission.
  • December 9, 2023: Melquizael Costa lost against Steve Garcia. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:01. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 15, 2023: Melquizael Costa won against Austin Lingo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 26 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • January 21, 2023: Melquizael Costa lost against Thiago Moises. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:05. Method of victory: Submission.

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Andre Fili vs Melquizael Costa

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Fili to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Andre Fili: -113
Melquizael Costa: -113

Andre Fili's Breakdown

Andre Fili comes into this fight with a balanced skill set, known for his mixture of striking and wrestling. Recently, he displayed his strategic evolution against Cub Swanson, using reactive double-leg takedowns effectively and maintaining a striking variety to outpace Swanson. However, Fili’s vulnerability to power punches was on display against Dan Ige, where he suffered a KO/TKO. Though Fili’s adaptability was evident in his win over Lucas Almeida, where efficient jab use and counter-striking led to a TKO.

Melquizael Costa's Breakdown

Melquizael Costa's last victory against Shayilan Nuerdanbieke was a showcase of his grappling prowess, securing a rear-naked choke after neutralizing takedowns. His earlier victory over Austin Lingo demonstrated his adaptability, transitioning from aggressive striking to effective grappling, demonstrating considerable endurance. However, his vulnerabilities were highlighted when he got caught by Steve Garcia, succumbing to a choke due to transitional defense weaknesses.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Fili's Recent Striking Improvements: Precision striking was critical in his bout with Almeida.
  • Costa's Grappling Control: Costa excels in positional dominance, as shown in his rear-naked choke win.
  • Vulnerability to Submissions: Costa must tighten defensive transitions to avoid repeat mistakes from the Garcia fight.
  • Fili's Chance to Exploit Gaps: Given Costa's takedown defense, Fili's wrestling could be strategically vital.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds tilted the scale, favoring the analytic perspective on Fili's experience and performance stability over Costa's broad but inconsistent skillset.
  • Recent Win Percentage, reflecting Fili's advantageous trend in terms of victories.
  • Costa's Trueskill highlighted inconsistency, reducing the confidence in his win potential.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI’s accuracy with both fighters is noteworthy. It precisely predicted Fili’s recent victories while missing Costa’s unpredictable outcomes, indicating lesser certainty about Costa's performances in the past.

Conclusion

Andre Fili's seasoned approach to blending striking and effective grappling makes him the favored choice despite Costa’s ground game. WolfTicketsAI backs Fili to win, capitalizing on Costa’s vulnerability during transitional phases.
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Stat Breakdown

Stat Andre Fili Melquizael Costa
Main Stats
Age 34 28
Height 71" 70"
Reach 74" 71"
Win Percentage 68.57% 75.00%
Wins 24 22
Losses 12 7
Wins at Weight Class 12 2
Losses at Weight Class 11 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 41.88% 56.39%
Significant Striking Accuracy 37.89% 46.03%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.684 5.890
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.884 3.458
Knockdowns per Fight 0.369 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -9.65% 25.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -2.43% 12.25%
Striking Output Differential 12.13% 36.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential 19.61% 21.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 94.93% 59.51%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 110.44% 91.72%
Striking Defense Percentage 51.05% 58.08%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.246 1.073
Takedowns per Fight 2.151 2.504
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.917 7.154
Takedown Defense 42.86% 88.89%
Takedown Accuracy 43.75% 35.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.811 1.192
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.724 4.221
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.323 1.622
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.574 1.550
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.897 2.456
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.734 0.501
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.500 0.715
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.631 0.835
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.057 0.167
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.238 0.405
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.406 0.668
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.189 0.143
Andre Fili History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 29, 2024 Featherweight Cub Swanson Andre Fili Andre Fili
Feb. 10, 2024 Featherweight Dan Ige Andre Fili Dan Ige
Dec. 16, 2023 Featherweight Andre Fili Lucas Almeida Andre Fili
July 22, 2023 Featherweight Nathaniel Wood Andre Fili Nathaniel Wood
Sept. 17, 2022 Featherweight Andre Fili Bill Algeo Andre Fili
April 30, 2022 Featherweight Andre Fili Joanderson Brito Joanderson Brito
June 26, 2021 Featherweight Andre Fili Daniel Pineda None
Oct. 31, 2020 Featherweight Bryce Mitchell Andre Fili Bryce Mitchell
June 13, 2020 Featherweight Andre Fili Charles Jourdain Andre Fili
Jan. 18, 2020 Featherweight Andre Fili Sodiq Yusuff Sodiq Yusuff
July 13, 2019 Featherweight Andre Fili Sheymon Moraes Andre Fili
Feb. 17, 2019 Featherweight Andre Fili Myles Jury Andre Fili
Aug. 25, 2018 Featherweight Michael Johnson Andre Fili Michael Johnson
Jan. 27, 2018 Featherweight Dennis Bermudez Andre Fili Andre Fili
Oct. 21, 2017 Featherweight Artem Lobov Andre Fili Andre Fili
July 29, 2017 Featherweight Andre Fili Calvin Kattar Calvin Kattar
Oct. 1, 2016 Featherweight Hacran Dias Andre Fili Andre Fili
April 23, 2016 Featherweight Yair Rodriguez Andre Fili Yair Rodriguez
Nov. 21, 2015 Featherweight Gabriel Benitez Andre Fili Andre Fili
March 21, 2015 Featherweight Godofredo Pepey Andre Fili Godofredo Pepey
Oct. 25, 2014 Featherweight Felipe Arantes Andre Fili Andre Fili
April 26, 2014 Featherweight Max Holloway Andre Fili Max Holloway
Oct. 19, 2013 Featherweight Jeremy Larsen Andre Fili Andre Fili
Melquizael Costa History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 15, 2024 Featherweight Melquizael Costa Shayilan Nuerdanbieke Melquizael Costa
Dec. 9, 2023 Lightweight Steve Garcia Melquizael Costa Steve Garcia
July 15, 2023 Featherweight Austin Lingo Melquizael Costa Melquizael Costa
Jan. 21, 2023 Lightweight Thiago Moises Melquizael Costa Thiago Moises