Jared Cannonier vs. Gregory Rodrigues - UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Jared Cannonier by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 778.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted
Jared Cannonier
1
162
Gregory Rodrigues
18
5
-210

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Gregory Rodrigues

Weight Class: Middleweight

Final Confidence: 27.32

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +20.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%

Value: +10.0%

Reason: Opponent lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months

Value: +15.0%

Reason: Opponent lost last fight, and fight before was a KO/TKO loss

Fighter History & Outcomes

Jared Cannonier

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • August 24, 2024: Jared Cannonier lost against Caio Borralho. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 49. 45 - 49. 46 - 48.
  • June 8, 2024: Jared Cannonier lost against Nassourdine Imavov. The fight ended in round 4 at 1:34. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 17, 2023: Jared Cannonier won against Marvin Vettori. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 49. 45 - 49. 46 - 48.
  • December 17, 2022: Jared Cannonier won against Sean Strickland. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 49 - 46. 46 - 49.
  • July 2, 2022: Jared Cannonier lost against Israel Adesanya. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 46 - 49. 45 - 50.
  • February 12, 2022: Jared Cannonier won against Derek Brunson. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:29. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • August 21, 2021: Jared Cannonier won against Kelvin Gastelum. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 47 - 48. 47 - 48.
  • October 24, 2020: Jared Cannonier lost against Robert Whittaker. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • September 28, 2019: Jared Cannonier won against Jack Hermansson. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:27. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 11, 2019: Jared Cannonier won against Anderson Silva. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:47. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • November 3, 2018: Jared Cannonier won against David Branch. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:39. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 19, 2018: Jared Cannonier lost against Dominick Reyes. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:55. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • December 16, 2017: Jared Cannonier lost against Jan Blachowicz. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 7, 2017: Jared Cannonier won against Nick Roehrick. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:08. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 11, 2017: Jared Cannonier lost against Glover Teixeira. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 26 - 30. 26 - 30. 26 - 30.
  • December 3, 2016: Jared Cannonier won against Ion Cutelaba. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • April 10, 2016: Jared Cannonier won against Cyril Asker. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:44. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 3, 2015: Jared Cannonier lost against Shawn Jordan. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:57. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
Gregory Rodrigues

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • July 27, 2024: Gregory Rodrigues won against Christian Leroy Duncan. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • February 10, 2024: Gregory Rodrigues won against Brad Tavares. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:55. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • August 19, 2023: Gregory Rodrigues won against Denis Tiuliulin. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:43. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 21, 2023: Gregory Rodrigues lost against Brunno Ferreira. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:13. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • September 17, 2022: Gregory Rodrigues won against Chidi Njokuani. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:27. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 18, 2022: Gregory Rodrigues won against Julian Marquez. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:18. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 26, 2022: Gregory Rodrigues lost against Armen Petrosyan. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 27 - 30.
  • October 23, 2021: Gregory Rodrigues won against JunYong Park. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:13. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 5, 2021: Gregory Rodrigues won against Dusko Todorovic. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Jared Cannonier vs Gregory Rodrigues

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gregory Rodrigues to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
Jared Cannonier: +162
Gregory Rodrigues: -210

Jared Cannonier's Breakdown

Cannonier is a veteran with a knack for striking, known for his leg kicks, versatile stance switching, and adaptability. However, his recent performances show inconsistency, losing his last two fights. Against Nassourdine Imavov, he demonstrated vulnerabilities to precise counter-strikes, succumbing to a KO in the fourth round. Cannonier’s effective high-volume striking and stance shifting were evident against Marvin Vettori, but his struggles to close distance effectively against Borralho highlighted a lack of adaptation in defensive scenarios.

Gregory Rodrigues's Breakdown

Rodrigues, or "Robocop," brings relentless pressure and a balanced mix of striking and grappling. His ability to pressure opponents continually, as exhibited against Brad Tavares and Christian Leroy Duncan, was crucial for his dominance. His recent victory over Tavares showcased amplified striking power and tactical use of grappling to disrupt opponents' rhythm, leading to a decisive KO. Rodrigues's adaptability is further evidenced by his fight against Denis Tiuliulin, where he combined a takedown with damaging ground-and-pound to secure victory.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Not Applicable - They have not fought before.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Cannonier's Susceptibility to Counters: Imavov exploited Cannonier's moments of aggression. Rivals that counter smartly could trouble him.
  • Rodrigues's Relentless Pressure: Successfully wears down opponents as seen against Duncan, leveraging his mix of striking and clinch dominance.
  • Rodrigues's Chin and Recovery: Demonstrated against Tavares, he can absorb punishment and keep forward pressure, making him tough to outlast.
  • Cannonier's Adaptable Style: Effective against stiff fighters, but struggled adapting against precise opponents like Borralho.

Understanding the Prediction

Key SHAP factors influencing Rodrigues's promised performance:

  • Recent Win Percentage: Increased model confidence due to high recent success (1.00 win rate).
  • Odds: Slightly diminished prediction due to close betting odds favoring Rodrigues.
  • Reach: Rodrigues’s reach is slightly shorter, compensating with aggression and technique.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI correctly anticipated Rodrigues’s victories against Tavares and Tiuliulin, fortifying confidence in his win. However, previous miscalculations in predicting Cannonier’s outcomes highlight potential forecast volatility.

Conclusion

With Cannonier's recent defensive challenges and Rodrigues’s persistent pressure game proving effective, Rodrigues stands poised to control the fight trajectory decisively. Expect a tactical fight where Rodrigues capitalizes on Cannonier’s openings to ensure another step toward middleweight contention.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Jared Cannonier Gregory Rodrigues
Main Stats
Age 40 32
Height 71" 75"
Reach 77" 75"
Win Percentage 68.00% 76.19%
Wins 18 16
Losses 8 6
Wins at Weight Class 7 7
Losses at Weight Class 3 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 53.69% 58.22%
Significant Striking Accuracy 50.14% 55.99%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.285 6.302
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.490 5.500
Knockdowns per Fight 0.303 0.752
Striking Impact Differential 0.78% 9.89%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 1.39% 8.00%
Striking Output Differential -17.67% 6.22%
Significant Striking Output Differential -15.67% 3.67%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 111.61% 78.33%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 127.07% 87.47%
Striking Defense Percentage 56.52% 51.13%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.000 0.376
Takedowns per Fight 0.424 2.819
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.909 6.578
Takedown Defense 60.00% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 46.67% 42.86%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.839 4.222
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.783 8.256
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.024 2.531
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.896 1.015
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.228 1.215
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.755 1.115
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.755 0.263
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.945 0.351
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.610 0.952
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.464 0.652
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.586 0.915
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.194 0.564
Jared Cannonier History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 24, 2024 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Caio Borralho Caio Borralho
June 8, 2024 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Nassourdine Imavov Nassourdine Imavov
June 17, 2023 Middleweight Marvin Vettori Jared Cannonier Jared Cannonier
Dec. 17, 2022 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Sean Strickland Jared Cannonier
July 2, 2022 UFC Middleweight Title Israel Adesanya Jared Cannonier Israel Adesanya
Feb. 12, 2022 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Derek Brunson Jared Cannonier
Aug. 21, 2021 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Kelvin Gastelum Jared Cannonier
Oct. 24, 2020 Middleweight Robert Whittaker Jared Cannonier Robert Whittaker
Sept. 28, 2019 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Jared Cannonier Jared Cannonier
May 11, 2019 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Anderson Silva Jared Cannonier
Nov. 3, 2018 Middleweight David Branch Jared Cannonier Jared Cannonier
May 19, 2018 Light Heavyweight Jared Cannonier Dominick Reyes Dominick Reyes
Dec. 16, 2017 Light Heavyweight Jared Cannonier Jan Blachowicz Jan Blachowicz
July 7, 2017 Light Heavyweight Jared Cannonier Nick Roehrick Jared Cannonier
Feb. 11, 2017 Light Heavyweight Glover Teixeira Jared Cannonier Glover Teixeira
Dec. 3, 2016 Light Heavyweight Ion Cutelaba Jared Cannonier Jared Cannonier
April 10, 2016 Heavyweight Jared Cannonier Cyril Asker Jared Cannonier
Jan. 3, 2015 Heavyweight Shawn Jordan Jared Cannonier Shawn Jordan
Gregory Rodrigues History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 27, 2024 Middleweight Christian Leroy Duncan Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Feb. 10, 2024 Middleweight Brad Tavares Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Aug. 19, 2023 Middleweight Gregory Rodrigues Denis Tiuliulin Gregory Rodrigues
Jan. 21, 2023 Middleweight Gregory Rodrigues Brunno Ferreira Brunno Ferreira
Sept. 17, 2022 Middleweight Chidi Njokuani Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
June 18, 2022 Middleweight Julian Marquez Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Feb. 26, 2022 Middleweight Armen Petrosyan Gregory Rodrigues Armen Petrosyan
Oct. 23, 2021 Middleweight JunYong Park Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
June 5, 2021 Middleweight Dusko Todorovic Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues