Gabriel Bonfim vs. Khaos Williams - UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Gabriel Bonfim by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 778.00m
Weight Class: Welterweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Gabriel Bonfim

Weight Class: Welterweight

Final Confidence: 23.1

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +5.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 22 and 26, increased by 5%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Gabriel Bonfim

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • July 13, 2024: Gabriel Bonfim won against Ange Loosa. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • November 4, 2023: Gabriel Bonfim lost against Nicolas Dalby. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:33. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 29, 2023: Gabriel Bonfim won against Trevin Giles. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:13. Method of victory: Submission.
  • January 21, 2023: Gabriel Bonfim won against Mounir Lazzez. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:49. Method of victory: Submission.
Khaos Williams

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • May 18, 2024: Khaos Williams won against Carlston Harris. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:30. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 6, 2023: Khaos Williams won against Rolando Bedoya. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 30 - 27.
  • May 7, 2022: Khaos Williams lost against Randy Brown. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
  • November 13, 2021: Khaos Williams won against Miguel Baeza. The fight ended in round 3 at 1:02. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 19, 2021: Khaos Williams won against Matthew Semelsberger. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • December 19, 2020: Khaos Williams lost against Michel Pereira. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • November 14, 2020: Khaos Williams won against Abdul Razak Alhassan. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:30. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 8, 2020: Khaos Williams won against Alex Morono. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:27. Method of victory: KO/TKO.

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs Khaos Williams

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gabriel Bonfim to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Gabriel Bonfim: -245
Khaos Williams: +186

Gabriel Bonfim's Breakdown

Bonfim is touted for his incredible Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission skills. His ability to control the ground action was evident in his submission victory over Trevin Giles, where he swiftly capitalized on Giles' mistakes with a guillotine choke. Defensively, Bonfim has shown resilience, countering early takedowns from Ange Loosa before overwhelming him with power strikes. His loss to Nicolas Dalby came via KO/TKO, raising questions about his susceptibility to powerful strikers. However, Bonfim's significant striking and ground control were pivotal in his unanimous decision win against Loosa.

Khaos Williams's Breakdown

Williams thrives in using his aggressive striking techniques to secure early victories. His explosive right hook sealed a KO against Carlston Harris—testifying to his raw knockout power. Williams tends to start strong, controlling pace and distance with his striking, as seen in his win over Rolando Bedoya by split decision. However, losses to Randy Brown and Michel Pereira highlighted his struggles with cardio and defense, notably when countered effectively.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Bonfim's grappling could neutralize Williams's striking: Bonfim's BJJ prowess may help him avoid getting caught in Williams's striking range.
  • Williams's early aggression is both strength and vulnerability: He could catch Bonfim off-guard or tire himself out, allowing Bonfim to capitalize.
  • Cardio and adaptability are Bonfim's assets: His ability to outlast opponents can exploit Williams's cardio issues.
  • Bonfim's previous loss to a KO artist is a caution sign: Should Williams hit hard early, this could repeat his defeat.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds revealed Bonfim's status as the favorite, boosting his prediction.
  • Striking Defense Percentage swayed confidence towards Bonfim, indicating his ability to deflect Khaos's strikes.
  • Recent Win Percentage further increased Bonfim's model score by showcasing his win consistency.
  • Takedown attempts statistic highlighted how Bonfim's grappling proficiency adds to his likelihood of winning.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has accurately predicted Bonfim's win against Ange Loosa and a submission victor over Trevin Giles but missed on his loss to Nicolas Dalby. For Williams, the AI was correct in his KO of Carlston Harris but wrong in his split decision loss to Randy Brown.

Conclusion

Gabriel Bonfim's intricate ground game and endurance offer him an edge over Khaos Williams's explosive, yet potentially draining, strike-first style. While Williams poses a threat with his knockout power, the prediction confidently leans toward Bonfim using his grappling skills to control the fight.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Gabriel Bonfim Khaos Williams
Main Stats
Age 27 30
Height 73" 72"
Reach 72" 77"
Win Percentage 94.12% 83.33%
Wins 17 15
Losses 1 4
Wins at Weight Class 3 6
Losses at Weight Class 1 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 44.84% 42.91%
Significant Striking Accuracy 43.55% 39.83%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.207 6.668
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.718 5.811
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 1.021
Striking Impact Differential 7.75% 8.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 9.25% 3.63%
Striking Output Differential 14.00% 51.38%
Significant Striking Output Differential 16.25% 46.75%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 107.88% 62.24%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 111.18% 70.26%
Striking Defense Percentage 59.51% 42.98%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 1.693 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 2.821 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.950 0.408
Takedown Defense 36.36% 25.00%
Takedown Accuracy 71.43% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.724 2.681
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 10.796 10.274
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.972 3.552
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.430 1.143
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.693 1.688
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.677 0.830
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.564 1.987
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.640 2.626
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.677 1.034
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.715 0.340
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.091 0.599
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.016 0.585
Gabriel Bonfim History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 13, 2024 Welterweight Gabriel Bonfim Ange Loosa Gabriel Bonfim
Nov. 4, 2023 Welterweight Gabriel Bonfim Nicolas Dalby Nicolas Dalby
July 29, 2023 Welterweight Gabriel Bonfim Trevin Giles Gabriel Bonfim
Jan. 21, 2023 Welterweight Gabriel Bonfim Mounir Lazzez Gabriel Bonfim
Khaos Williams History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
May 18, 2024 Welterweight Khaos Williams Carlston Harris Khaos Williams
May 6, 2023 Welterweight Khaos Williams Rolando Bedoya Khaos Williams
May 7, 2022 Welterweight Randy Brown Khaos Williams Randy Brown
Nov. 13, 2021 Welterweight Miguel Baeza Khaos Williams Khaos Williams
June 19, 2021 Welterweight Khaos Williams Matthew Semelsberger Khaos Williams
Dec. 19, 2020 Welterweight Michel Pereira Khaos Williams Michel Pereira
Nov. 14, 2020 Welterweight Abdul Razak Alhassan Khaos Williams Khaos Williams
Feb. 8, 2020 Welterweight Alex Morono Khaos Williams Khaos Williams