Analysis: Jared Gordon vs Thiago Moises

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jared Gordon to Win

Score: 11
Odds:
Jared Gordon: -122
Thiago Moises: -104

Jared Gordon's Breakdown

Gordon brings a high-pressure boxing approach with relentless volume and clinch control to this matchup. His game revolves around cutting the cage, initiating exchanges in the pocket, and dominating in close quarters. Gordon's bread and butter is his dirty boxing, which he showcased brilliantly against Nasrat Haqparast, using tactical stance switching to disrupt his opponent's timing before unleashing combinations in the clinch.

Gordon's signature techniques include:

1. Pressure Boxing with Clinch Entries: Against Haqparast, Gordon demonstrated his ability to close distance with orthodox entries before switching to southpaw to create new offensive angles. This tactical flexibility allows him to adapt mid-fight when his initial approach isn't working. He consistently uses jab-cross combinations to set up body shots that wear opponents down over time.

2. Dirty Boxing in Close Quarters: In his fight with Madsen, Gordon showed devastating effectiveness with short uppercuts and hooks when in tight spaces. He excels at finding openings for these shots while maintaining dominant position against the fence, as he did in round 2 against Madsen before securing the TKO finish.

3. Single-Leg to Clinch Transitions: Gordon doesn't pursue takedowns to completion but uses them as entries to his clinch game. Against Leonardo Santos, he repeatedly used single-leg attempts to initiate clinch exchanges where his short-range striking could flourish. This approach allowed him to neutralize Santos' kicking range and exploit his cardio deficiency.

Gordon's technical evolution is evident in his recent performances. His tactical stance switching against Haqparast showed significant growth, demonstrating his ability to make mid-fight adjustments rather than stubbornly sticking to a failing gameplan. His clinch striking has also become more refined, showing technical precision rather than simply overwhelming opponents with volume.

Jared Gordon's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Initial Distance Entry Vulnerability: Gordon's entries when closing distance can be predictable, making him susceptible to counter strikes. Against Haqparast, he absorbed several clean left straights and uppercuts when ducking in for takedowns during early exchanges. His head positioning when shooting for singles often leaves him exposed to uppercuts, which could be problematic against a submission specialist like Moises who can capitalize on these moments.

2. Back Exposure During Scrambles: When pursuing takedowns or defending them, Gordon has a tendency to expose his back during transitions. This was particularly evident against Grant Dawson, who capitalized multiple times when Gordon attempted to stand. Rather than maintaining strong hand position during stand-ups, Gordon often turns his back completely, creating entry points for rear control – a dangerous habit against Moises's back-taking prowess.

3. Defensive Shell Under Pressure: When faced with aggressive combination striking, Gordon tends to adopt a high guard shell defense that leaves his body exposed. This defensive posture, while protecting his head, creates patterns opponents can exploit and leaves him vulnerable to body attacks and low kicks, which Moises has shown proficiency with in recent fights.

Thiago Moises's Breakdown

Moises presents as a methodical grappler with increasingly dangerous calf kicks and opportunistic submissions. His technical approach has evolved from a submission-hunting style to a more patient, damage-first strategy that creates openings for his grappling. Against Trey Ogden, Moises demonstrated how devastating his leg attacks can be, systematically breaking down his opponent's mobility before capitalizing on the accumulated damage.

Moises's signature techniques include:

1. Devastating Calf Kicks: Moises has refined his calf kick into a primary weapon, throwing them with minimal telegraph and precise targeting. Against Mitch Ramirez, he repeatedly attacked the same area on his opponent's calf, eventually causing a fight-ending sequence when Ramirez could no longer defend himself due to compromised mobility. The kicks are thrown both as counters and leads, with excellent timing when opponents are planting weight on their lead leg.

2. Back-Taking System: Moises excels at finding and securing back position during transitions. Against Christos Giagos, he used a subtle inside trip to destabilize his opponent in a standing position, then immediately jumped on his back as Giagos adjusted his footing. His transitions from standing to a fully-secured back position with body triangle are technically flawless and happen in mere seconds.

3. Butterfly Guard and Leg Attacks: When taken down, Moises has an exceptional butterfly guard that allows him to create space and threaten submissions. Against Grant Dawson, he repeatedly threatened knee bars from turtle position when Dawson placed his knee between Moises's legs, creating breathing room and forcing his opponent to reset his offense.

Moises has shown significant technical evolution, particularly in his striking. What began as merely a setup for his grappling has developed into a legitimate offensive weapon, especially his calf kicks. His grappling has also evolved from aggressive submission hunting to a more control-oriented approach that prioritizes position and incremental damage.

Thiago Moises's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Positioning Against the Fence: When pressured backward, Moises often finds himself trapped along the cage with limited escape routes. His tendency to back straight up rather than circle creates predictable patterns that aggressive opponents can exploit. Against Benoit Saint Denis, this led to multiple sequences where he absorbed unnecessary damage with his back to the fence – a vulnerability Gordon's pressure style is perfectly suited to exploit.

2. Early Round Hesitation: For approximately half of the first round against Melquizael Costa, Moises appeared tentative in striking exchanges, allowing Costa to dictate the tempo and range. This pattern of slow starts has been a recurring issue, giving opponents opportunities to establish their gameplan early – something Gordon will look to capitalize on with his high-output approach.

3. Limited Offensive Wrestling: Moises struggles to initiate offensive grappling sequences, particularly against physically strong opponents. His takedown attempts often involve shooting from too far out, leading to low-percentage singles that are relatively easy to defend. Against Saint Denis, his initial shots were consistently stuffed, forcing him to rely on counter-grappling rather than offensive wrestling.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Gordon's pressure boxing and clinch control directly target Moises's vulnerability against the fence. Gordon excels at cutting the cage and forcing opponents into uncomfortable exchanges in tight quarters – precisely where Moises has shown defensive liabilities. The clinch exchanges will be particularly important, as Gordon's dirty boxing could neutralize Moises's grappling entries if he can maintain strong underhook control.

Moises's calf kicks could pose problems for Gordon, who has shown vulnerability to leg attacks in previous fights. If Moises can establish his kicking game early, he could compromise Gordon's mobility and blunt his forward pressure. However, Gordon's constant forward movement and boxing entries may not give Moises the space needed to set up these kicks effectively.

The grappling exchanges present interesting dynamics. Gordon's tendency to expose his back during scrambles creates dangerous opportunities for Moises's back-taking expertise. Conversely, Gordon's improved defensive wrestling and ability to maintain pressure against the fence could neutralize Moises's submission threats by keeping him defensive.

Gordon's high output in the early rounds matches poorly with Moises's tendency to start slowly. If Gordon can establish his pace and pressure early, Moises may find himself playing catch-up throughout the fight. However, if Moises can weather the early storm and find success with his calf kicks, Gordon's mobility could be compromised in later rounds.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Gordon will likely establish dominance through volume and pressure, pushing Moises to the fence where his dirty boxing can be most effective. Gordon's ability to switch stances and use different entries will test Moises's defensive reactions. Moises will look to establish his calf kick early but may struggle to find the space needed against Gordon's forward pressure.

Mid-fight adjustments: If Gordon's initial pressure is successful, expect Moises to increase his wrestling attempts to change the dynamic. Gordon's defensive wrestling will be tested, particularly his ability to maintain position during scrambles without exposing his back. If Moises has success with leg kicks early, Gordon may be forced to adjust his entries, potentially switching to more wrestling-heavy approaches.

Championship rounds: Gordon's historically high pace could create cardio issues late in the fight, especially if Moises has damaged his legs. Conversely, if Gordon has maintained his pressure against the fence, Moises may be worn down from defending in uncomfortable positions. The fighter who has invested more in body work and leg attacks will likely have the advantage in the later rounds.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gordon's pressure vs. Moises's counter-grappling: Gordon's relentless forward movement will test Moises's ability to create space for his techniques. If Gordon can maintain pressure without overcommitting, he'll neutralize much of Moises's offensive arsenal.

• Leg kick battle could be decisive: Moises's calf kicks have become a primary weapon, but Gordon's forward pressure may limit opportunities. If Moises can land these consistently early, Gordon's mobility and pressure will be compromised.

• Back-taking opportunities in scrambles: Gordon's tendency to expose his back during transitions creates high-risk moments against Moises's excellent back control. Gordon must be disciplined in his defensive wrestling to avoid giving Moises his strongest position.

• Clinch control will determine striking exchanges: Gordon's dirty boxing in the clinch is his most effective weapon, while Moises needs space to implement his kicking game. The fighter who controls the clinch positions will dictate where the fight takes place.

• Early pace will set the tone: Gordon typically starts fast while Moises often begins tentatively. This dynamic strongly favors Gordon in the first round and could create a deficit Moises struggles to overcome.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI's prediction is heavily influenced by several key factors:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the prediction score by 6.0, highlighting Gordon's ability to land the more damaging strikes
• Striking Impact Differential boosted the score by 4.0, reflecting Gordon's overall effectiveness in striking exchanges
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added 3.0 to the score, showing Gordon's recent improvements in landing impactful strikes
• Odds and TrueSkill each contributed 1.0 to the prediction, indicating slight market and algorithmic advantages for Gordon

The model sees Gordon's pressure style and striking impact as the decisive factors in this matchup, particularly given Moises's vulnerability against fighters who can trap him against the fence.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters:

For Gordon, the model correctly predicted his win over Mark Madsen by KO/TKO and his win over Leonardo Santos by decision. However, it incorrectly picked Gordon to lose against Nasrat Haqparast (Gordon lost by split decision) and against Paddy Pimblett (Gordon lost a controversial decision many observers thought he won).

For Moises, the model has been accurate in recent predictions, correctly forecasting his win over Trey Ogden, his loss to Ludovit Klein, and his loss to Benoit Saint Denis. It also correctly predicted his submission win over Christos Giagos.

The model's accuracy with both fighters suggests reasonable confidence in this prediction, though Gordon's controversial loss to Pimblett indicates potential variance in closely contested fights.

Conclusion

Gordon's relentless pressure, volume striking, and clinch control present a difficult stylistic matchup for Moises, who struggles when forced to fight off his back foot. While Moises possesses dangerous submission skills and increasingly effective calf kicks, Gordon's ability to cut the cage and force clinch exchanges should neutralize much of Moises's offensive arsenal. Gordon's tendency to expose his back during scrambles presents the biggest risk, but his improved defensive wrestling and stance switching should allow him to maintain his preferred range. WolfTicketsAI sees Gordon's pressure and striking impact as the deciding factors in what should be a competitive but clear decision victory.