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Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Jaqueline Amorim
Weight Class: Women's Strawweight
Final Confidence: 23.1
Value: +5.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 22 and 26, increased by 5%
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 22 Odds: Jaqueline Amorim: -300 Vanessa Demopoulos: 250
Jaqueline Amorim is an elite submission grappler with a world-class BJJ background. A black belt with multiple IBJJF world titles, her grappling pedigree is nearly unmatched in the strawweight division.
In MMA, Amorim has translated those skills brilliantly. 75% of her pro wins have come by submission, mostly via armbars and kneebars from dominant positions. In the UFC, she's shown the ability to quickly take opponents down and secure fight-ending holds.
While primarily a grappler, Amorim's striking continues to improve. She has two KO/TKO wins on her record, showing developing power to complement her grappling threat.
Vanessa Demopoulos is a well-rounded fighter also holding a BJJ black belt. However, her submission grappling accolades don't quite match Amorim's.
In the cage, Demopoulos relies more on her durability, cardio, and overall skills to wear opponents down and win decisions. She's never been finished in her 5 UFC losses, a testament to her toughness.
On the feet, Demopoulos throws a high volume of strikes and has the gas tank to maintain a strong pace for three rounds. She believes her overall MMA game is now at a level where she can outstrike strikers and outgrapple grapplers.
This matchup pits Amorim's elite submission skills against Demopoulos's well-rounded grinding style. The key factor may be if Amorim can get the fight to the mat and deploy her devastating BJJ.
Demopoulos will likely look to keep the fight standing and outpoint Amorim with volume striking. But she must be wary of Amorim's takedowns. If grounded, Demopoulos's own black belt skills will be severely tested by Amorim's world-class grappling.
For Amorim, the path to victory is clear - take Demopoulos down and attack submissions. She excels at rapidly advancing to dominant positions and locking in fight-ending holds.
However, if Demopoulos can stuff the takedowns and keep it a striking battle, her cardio could become a major factor. She may be able to outwork Amorim on the feet and mix in her own takedowns to edge out a decision.
Amorim is riding a 2-fight UFC winning streak, most recently submitting Cory McKenna in the 1st round in March 2024. A win here would make it 3 in a row.
Demopoulos has also won her last 2, most recently edging out Emily Ducote by split decision in May 2024. She seems to be hitting her stride after an inconsistent start to her UFC run.
Both women are rising prospects in the strawweight division looking to break into title contention. A victory here, especially for Amorim with her finishing abilities, would be a huge step forward.
This is a classic grappler vs. well-rounded fighter matchup. Jaqueline Amorim's phenomenal submission skills give her a clear route to victory, but Vanessa Demopoulos's durability and cardio edges can't be discounted if she can maintain a standing fight.
With both fighters entering on two-fight UFC winning streaks, this bout could propel the victor into strawweight title contention.
Stat | Jaqueline Amorim | Vanessa Demopoulos | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 29 | 35 | 31 | |
Height | 63" | 62" | 63" | |
Reach | 68" | 59" | 63" | |
Win Percentage | 88.89% | 68.75% | 76.21% | |
Wins | 9 | 11 | ||
Losses | 1 | 6 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 2 | 5 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 1 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 60.87% | 48.69% | 49.46% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 52.33% | 41.46% | 41.31% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.465 | 6.254 | 5.450 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.332 | 4.361 | 3.680 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.162 | 0.163 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 20.33% | -13.43% | 1.76% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 15.00% | -23.00% | 0.02% | |
Striking Output Differential | 24.00% | 14.57% | 0.25% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 14.00% | 2.57% | -2.08% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 58.67% | 71.45% | 88.08% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 94.06% | 96.77% | 119.84% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 62.91% | 40.88% | 49.13% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 5.443 | 0.325 | 0.533 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 1.484 | 0.487 | 1.525 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 6.432 | 3.895 | 3.681 | |
Takedown Defense | 0.00% | 200.00% | 91.65% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 23.08% | 12.50% | 33.16% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.936 | 2.867 | 2.292 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 5.443 | 8.473 | 6.158 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.583 | 4.274 | 2.296 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.363 | 1.028 | 0.829 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.759 | 1.439 | 1.224 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.099 | 1.093 | 0.832 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.033 | 0.465 | 0.559 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.165 | 0.606 | 0.713 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.165 | 0.736 | 0.539 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.000 | 0.617 | 0.522 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.000 | 0.822 | 0.689 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.231 | 0.206 | 0.532 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
March 16, 2024 | Women's Strawweight | Jaqueline Amorim | Cory McKenna | Jaqueline Amorim | |
Aug. 12, 2023 | Women's Strawweight | Jaqueline Amorim | Montserrat Conejo Ruiz | Jaqueline Amorim | |
April 8, 2023 | Women's Strawweight | Jaqueline Amorim | Sam Hughes | Sam Hughes |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 18, 2024 | Women's Strawweight | Vanessa Demopoulos | Emily Ducote | Vanessa Demopoulos | |
Oct. 7, 2023 | Women's Strawweight | Vanessa Demopoulos | Kanako Murata | Vanessa Demopoulos | |
May 20, 2023 | Women's Strawweight | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Vanessa Demopoulos | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | |
Nov. 19, 2022 | Women's Strawweight | Vanessa Demopoulos | Maria Oliveira | Vanessa Demopoulos | |
June 25, 2022 | Women's Strawweight | Vanessa Demopoulos | Jinh Yu Frey | Vanessa Demopoulos | |
Jan. 22, 2022 | Women's Strawweight | Silvana Gomez Juarez | Vanessa Demopoulos | Vanessa Demopoulos | |
Aug. 28, 2021 | Women's Flyweight | JJ Aldrich | Vanessa Demopoulos | JJ Aldrich |