Analysis: Felipe dos Santos vs Andre Lima

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Lima to Win

Score: 9 Odds: Felipe dos Santos: 150 Andre Lima: -188

Felipe dos Santos's Breakdown

Felipe dos Santos is a promising Brazilian flyweight with a well-rounded skill set. He's shown proficiency in both striking and grappling, with two wins by knockout and three by submission. His striking accuracy is 34.8%, and he favors elbows and knees as his preferred techniques.

On the ground, dos Santos has demonstrated an aptitude for submissions, particularly the triangle choke. However, his takedown accuracy is relatively low, landing only 1 out of 5 attempted takedowns in the UFC. This suggests that while he's dangerous on the mat, he may struggle to consistently bring the fight there.

Dos Santos is coming off a split decision win over Victor Altamirano in February 2024, bouncing back from a unanimous decision loss to Manel Kape in his previous bout. In the Kape fight, dos Santos struggled to get his striking going, absorbing more significant strikes than he landed. The Altamirano fight showcased his ability to adapt and secure a hard-fought victory.

Andre Lima's Breakdown

Andre "Mascote" Lima is an explosive striker with knockout power. He's finished five of his seven wins by KO/TKO, with four of those coming in the first round. His striking accuracy is an impressive 56.8%, and his favorite combination is a hook, straight, and head kick.

While primarily known for his striking, Lima also holds a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has a 25% takedown accuracy, landing 1 out of 4 attempted takedowns. This suggests that while he's capable on the ground, he prefers to keep the fight standing.

Lima is riding a two-fight win streak in the UFC. Most recently, he defeated Mitch Raposo by split decision in June 2024. Prior to that, he won a bizarre fight against Igor da Silva, who was disqualified for biting in March 2024. In that bout, Lima showed resilience and tactical prowess, attempting a guillotine choke and an omoplata in the first round and landing a powerful elbow.

Analysis and Key Points

• This fight presents an intriguing clash of styles between dos Santos's well-rounded game and Lima's striking-heavy approach.
• Dos Santos may look to use his grappling to neutralize Lima's striking, but he needs to be wary of Lima's knockout power and improve his takedown accuracy to implement that strategy effectively.
• Lima will likely aim to keep the fight standing and use his precise striking to pick apart dos Santos. He has the ability to finish fights quickly.
• Both fighters are relatively young in their careers and have shown continuous improvement. This fight is an opportunity for each of them to make a statement in the flyweight division.

Understanding the Prediction

• The odds significantly favor Andre Lima, moving the prediction score in his direction by 8 points. This suggests the betting market sees Lima as a clear favorite.
• Lima's recent significant striking output differential is higher than dos Santos's, increasing the prediction score in his favor by 3 points. In his last few fights, Lima has been outlanding opponents on the feet more than dos Santos has.
• Dos Santos has a higher recent win percentage, which decreases the prediction score for Lima by 2 points. Dos Santos has won 1 of his last 3 fights, while Lima has won 2 of his last 3.
• Lima's reach is 3 inches shorter than dos Santos's, which increases the prediction score for Lima by 1 point. This is a bit counterintuitive, but suggests WolfTicketsAI believes Lima can overcome the reach disadvantage, perhaps with his striking power and accuracy.

Past Model Performance

The model has one previous prediction for Felipe dos Santos, correctly forecasting him to beat Victor Altamirano in February 2024 with a score of 0.53. Dos Santos won that fight by split decision.

There are no past predictions for Andre Lima. This adds a bit of uncertainty to the model's forecast, as it doesn't have a track record to go on.

Conclusion

Andre Lima is the rightful favorite against Felipe dos Santos. His explosive striking, knockout power, and impressive accuracy give him a clear path to victory, especially since dos Santos has absorbed more strikes than he's landed in his recent fights.

The model predicts Lima to win with an impressive score of 9, largely because of his odds advantage and superior recent striking stats relative to dos Santos's. However, a lack of prediction history for Lima adds some uncertainty to this forecast.

For dos Santos to pull off the upset, he'll need to use his grappling to neutralize Lima's striking. But his low takedown accuracy suggests he may struggle to implement that strategy. Dos Santos's best chance is likely to utilize his reach advantage and outland Lima on the feet while avoiding his power shots. Possible, but unlikely according to WolfTicketsAI.