The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
| Stat | Michael Johnson | Alan Patrick | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 35 | 38 | 32 | |
| Height | 70" | 71" | 70" | |
| Reach | 73" | 74" | 72" | |
| Win Percentage | 54.05% | 83.33% | 80.52% | |
| Wins | 21 | 15 | ||
| Losses | 17 | 4 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 8 | 5 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 10 | 4 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 39.61% | 55.92% | 51.89% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 38.38% | 40.13% | 45.78% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.431 | 3.997 | 5.838 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.185 | 1.759 | 4.328 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.439 | 0.141 | 1.796 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | -5.74% | -12.89% | 3.39% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 4.35% | -13.44% | 1.38% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 9.04% | -5.67% | 7.22% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 20.57% | -9.33% | 4.70% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 124.38% | 63.53% | 98.39% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 127.91% | 129.41% | 124.55% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 58.36% | 44.00% | 54.19% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.055 | 0.282 | 0.629 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 0.439 | 3.245 | 1.758 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 1.044 | 9.028 | 4.762 | |
| Takedown Defense | 28.99% | 114.29% | 81.80% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 42.11% | 35.94% | 31.32% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.300 | 1.129 | 2.930 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 7.865 | 3.339 | 7.209 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.838 | 1.843 | 2.331 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.172 | 0.414 | 0.764 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 2.120 | 0.790 | 1.151 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.410 | 0.790 | 0.765 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.714 | 0.216 | 0.634 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.919 | 0.254 | 0.775 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.571 | 0.263 | 0.578 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.293 | 0.207 | 0.427 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.461 | 0.292 | 0.596 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.256 | 0.546 | 0.386 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 6, 2021 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Clay Guida | Clay Guida | |
| May 13, 2020 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Thiago Moises | Thiago Moises | |
| Oct. 26, 2019 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Stevie Ray | Stevie Ray | |
| March 30, 2019 | Featherweight | Josh Emmett | Michael Johnson | Josh Emmett | |
| Oct. 27, 2018 | Featherweight | Michael Johnson | Artem Lobov | Michael Johnson | |
| Aug. 25, 2018 | Featherweight | Michael Johnson | Andre Fili | Michael Johnson | |
| Jan. 14, 2018 | Featherweight | Darren Elkins | Michael Johnson | Darren Elkins | |
| July 7, 2017 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
| Nov. 12, 2016 | Lightweight | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Michael Johnson | Khabib Nurmagomedov | |
| Sept. 17, 2016 | Lightweight | Dustin Poirier | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| Dec. 19, 2015 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Nate Diaz | Nate Diaz | |
| Aug. 8, 2015 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Beneil Dariush | Beneil Dariush | |
| Feb. 22, 2015 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| March 8, 2014 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Melvin Guillard | Michael Johnson | |
| Dec. 28, 2013 | Lightweight | Gleison Tibau | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| Aug. 17, 2013 | Lightweight | Joe Lauzon | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| April 6, 2013 | Lightweight | Reza Madadi | Michael Johnson | Reza Madadi | |
| Dec. 29, 2012 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Myles Jury | Myles Jury | |
| Oct. 5, 2012 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Danny Castillo | Michael Johnson | |
| May 5, 2012 | Lightweight | Tony Ferguson | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
| Jan. 28, 2012 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Shane Roller | Michael Johnson | |
| Oct. 1, 2011 | Lightweight | Michael Johnson | Paul Sass | Paul Sass | |
| Dec. 4, 2010 | Ultimate Fighter 12 Lightweight Tournament Title | Jonathan Brookins | Michael Johnson | Jonathan Brookins |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 5, 2021 | Lightweight | Alan Patrick | Mason Jones | None | |
| Sept. 12, 2020 | Lightweight | King Green | Alan Patrick | King Green | |
| Oct. 6, 2018 | Lightweight | Scott Holtzman | Alan Patrick | Scott Holtzman | |
| Feb. 3, 2018 | Lightweight | Alan Patrick | Damir Hadzovic | Alan Patrick | |
| Sept. 24, 2016 | Lightweight | Alan Patrick | Stevie Ray | Alan Patrick | |
| March 19, 2016 | Lightweight | Alan Patrick | Damien Brown | Alan Patrick | |
| June 20, 2015 | Lightweight | Mairbek Taisumov | Alan Patrick | Mairbek Taisumov | |
| Feb. 1, 2014 | Lightweight | John Makdessi | Alan Patrick | Alan Patrick | |
| Oct. 9, 2013 | Lightweight | Alan Patrick | Garett Whiteley | Alan Patrick |