Analysis: Jailton Almeida vs Rizvan Kuniev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jailton Almeida to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Jailton Almeida: -140
Rizvan Kuniev: +120

Jailton Almeida's Breakdown

Jailton Almeida is one of the most dominant grapplers in the heavyweight division. His signature technique is the Lucas Leite-style half guard sweep. When opponents put him on his back, he opens his guard, lets them step into half guard, sits up on the underhook, and sweeps them directly into mount. He pulled this off against both Serghei Spivac and Derrick Lewis. Against Spivac, this sweep led to a first-round TKO finish when Almeida landed heavy ground strikes during the scramble.

His second weapon is the diving double leg takedown, often set up by a front kick to the head. Against Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Almeida threw the front kick, immediately shot the double, and bundled Rozenstruik to the canvas before submitting him in round one. He used this same entry against Shamil Abdurakhimov, though Abdurakhimov managed to land a counter right hand before getting taken down anyway.

Almeida has also shown butterfly guard proficiency. Against Spivac, when Spivac tried to pass his guard, Almeida established a butterfly hook and swept him cleanly. This gives him multiple paths back to top position regardless of how opponents try to control him.

His recent evolution showed against Spivac when he actually engaged with strikes during scrambles. For years, critics questioned whether Almeida could punch. That fight answered the question. He landed heavy shots that led to the stoppage, proving his grappling-heavy approach is tactical choice, not limitation.

Almeida's UFC record stands at 8-2 with six finishes. He has submitted Rozenstruik, Romanov, and Parker Porter. He TKO'd Abdurakhimov and Spivac. His grappling volume is absurd: 6.66 takedowns landed per fight with 62.96% accuracy.

Jailton Almeida's Technical Vulnerabilities

Passive Top Control: The Volkov fight exposed Almeida's biggest flaw. Despite landing 7 of 9 takedowns and controlling for 10:47, he threw only 9 significant strikes and attempted zero submissions. Volkov stayed active from bottom, attempted a triangle and kimura, and won a split decision. Judges prioritized damage over control. If Almeida gets the fight to the ground but refuses to work, he can lose rounds.

Back Exposure During Mount Escapes: Both Derrick Lewis and Spivac used the same escape when mounted. They bridge, grab Almeida's hand, pull it across their body, and roll through until both fighters end up supine. This neutralizes Almeida's ground strikes and forces a hand-fighting exchange. Spivac executed this perfectly in round one before Almeida eventually finished him.

Predictable Takedown Entries: Almeida's front kick to double leg is effective but telegraphed. Abdurakhimov read it and landed a counter right hand. Against more powerful strikers, this predictability could be punished harder.

Rizvan Kuniev's Breakdown

Rizvan Kuniev made his UFC debut against Curtis Blaydes at UFC Baku and lost a razor-thin split decision. But the performance proved he belongs at this level. He stuffed 13 of 15 takedown attempts against one of the best wrestlers in heavyweight history.

Kuniev's best weapon is his jab-straight right combination. In round two against Blaydes, he doubled up the jab and landed clean rights that visibly marked up Blaydes' face. He landed 24 strikes to Blaydes' 16 in that round and looked like the more polished striker at range.

His defensive uppercut timing is excellent. When Blaydes shot for takedowns, Kuniev caught him coming in with well-placed uppercuts that drew blood. He also timed a clean knee to Blaydes' chin early in round three that stunned the veteran.

Kuniev's Wushu Sanda background shows in his striking. He moves well at range and can pick apart opponents who cannot threaten takedowns. His 87% takedown defense against Blaydes was remarkable for a UFC debut.

In the final seconds against Blaydes, Kuniev unleashed a flurry that nearly finished the fight. Had the round been ten seconds longer, the outcome might have been different.

Rizvan Kuniev's Technical Vulnerabilities

Clinch Control Weakness: Blaydes dominated round one by pressing Kuniev against the cage with a body lock. Kuniev struggled to break the grip and escape. Each time he worked free, Blaydes reattached. This cost him the round decisively and likely the fight.

Limited Offensive Grappling: Despite his Dagestani wrestling background, Kuniev attempted zero takedowns against Blaydes. He briefly tried a guillotine in round three but abandoned it quickly. He has no proven offensive grappling at UFC level.

Volume Issues in Close Rounds: Kuniev landed cleaner shots in round three, but Blaydes outlanded him 28-13. When rounds are tight, Kuniev's lower volume can cost him on the scorecards.

Warning: Kuniev has only one UFC fight. The model has limited data to work with, which adds uncertainty to any prediction involving him.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Almeida's grappling. Kuniev showed excellent takedown defense against Blaydes, but Blaydes tore his MCL in round one and abandoned his wrestling gameplan. We never saw Kuniev defend against a healthy, committed wrestler for three rounds.

Almeida's diving double leg and chain wrestling present different problems than Blaydes' approach. Almeida will shoot immediately, often within the first ten seconds. Against Volkov, he secured a takedown in the opening moments. Against Rozenstruik, he was on top within seconds.

Kuniev's defensive uppercuts could catch Almeida on entries. Abdurakhimov landed a counter right when Almeida shot. But Almeida's takedown volume is relentless. He attempts 10.58 takedowns per fight. Even if Kuniev stuffs the first few, Almeida will keep shooting.

Once the fight hits the mat, Kuniev has shown no ability to escape or threaten from bottom. Almeida's half guard sweeps and butterfly guard work mean that even if Kuniev somehow gets on top, he could end up on his back within seconds.

Kuniev's path to victory is keeping this fight standing and boxing at range. His jab-straight combinations could mark up Almeida. But Almeida's pressure and takedown entries will make it difficult to establish that range.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Almeida will shoot immediately. Expect a takedown attempt within the first 30 seconds. If Kuniev stuffs it, Almeida will chain into another attempt. Kuniev's clinch weakness is concerning here. Even if he defends the initial shot, Almeida could push him to the cage and work for a body lock similar to what Blaydes used.

Mid-Fight: If Almeida secures top position, the question becomes whether he will work for damage or lay and pray. His Volkov performance was passive. His Spivac performance was aggressive. Against a less experienced opponent like Kuniev, Almeida should feel comfortable opening up with ground strikes.

Late Rounds: Almeida's cardio has held up through five rounds against Derrick Lewis. Kuniev went three rounds with Blaydes and remained dangerous late. If this fight goes deep, Almeida's grappling pressure should accumulate damage and fatigue Kuniev.

Analysis and Key Points

• Takedown Volume Mismatch: Almeida attempts 10.58 takedowns per fight. Kuniev defended well against an injured Blaydes, but Almeida's volume and chain wrestling are different challenges entirely.

• Ground Control Dominance: Almeida averages 10:47 of control time. Kuniev has shown no offensive grappling or submission threats from bottom. Once down, he stays down.

• Striking at Range Favors Kuniev: If this stays standing, Kuniev's boxing is cleaner. His jab-straight combinations troubled Blaydes. But Almeida will not let this stay standing.

• Recent Form Concern for Almeida: Almeida lost his last fight to Volkov via split decision. His passive approach cost him. But that fight was against a veteran with excellent defensive grappling. Kuniev is less experienced.

• Limited Data on Kuniev: One UFC fight is not enough to fully assess his ceiling or weaknesses. This adds uncertainty.

Understanding the Prediction

The model gave Almeida a confidence score of 9, which is extremely high. Several features drove this:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+5.0): Almeida's ability to land meaningful strikes while absorbing few gives him a substantial edge.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+4.0): Almeida's 12.17 recent takedown attempts per fight dwarfs Kuniev's zero. The model sees this grappling pressure as decisive.

• Odds (+3.0): The betting market favors Almeida at -140, and the model agrees with that assessment.

• Striking Impact Differential (+2.0) and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+2.0): Almeida lands more damaging shots than he absorbs, even though his striking is not his primary weapon.

• Striking Defense Percentage (-2.0): Almeida's 20.82% striking defense is low, which slightly concerns the model. But his grappling dominance typically prevents extended striking exchanges.

• TrueSkill (-1.0): Almeida's TrueSkill rating is 38.39 compared to Kuniev's 25.0 (with high uncertainty). The model slightly penalized this gap, possibly due to Kuniev's limited sample size.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has an excellent track record with Almeida. The model correctly predicted his wins over Spivac (0.74 score), Romanov (0.68), Lewis (0.80), Rozenstruik (0.21), Abdurakhimov (0.19), and Porter (0.79). It also correctly predicted his loss to Blaydes (0.52 for Blaydes).

The one miss was the Volkov fight. The model predicted Almeida to win with a 0.59 score, but Volkov took the split decision. That loss came from Almeida's passive approach, not from being outgrappled.

The model has never predicted a Kuniev fight before. This is his first UFC appearance in the prediction system, which adds some uncertainty.

Overall, the model's 7-1 record on Almeida fights provides strong confidence. The only miss was a close split decision where Almeida's tactics, not his skills, failed him.

Conclusion

Jailton Almeida should dominate this fight on the ground. Kuniev showed impressive takedown defense against an injured Blaydes, but Almeida's relentless chain wrestling and 10+ takedown attempts per fight present a different challenge. Once Almeida gets on top, Kuniev has shown no path back to his feet or any submission threats from bottom. If Almeida stays active with ground strikes, unlike the Volkov fight, this ends early. WolfTicketsAI has Almeida winning, and the grappling mismatch supports that pick.