Analysis: Bruna Brasil vs Ketlen Souza

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ketlen Souza to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Bruna Brasil: +135
Ketlen Souza: -155

Bruna Brasil's Breakdown

Bruna Brasil brings a Muay Thai-heavy approach to the strawweight division. Her game centers on leg kicks from distance, clinch knees, and volume striking. Against Molly McCann in July 2024, Brasil showed her ability to control pace and work behind those leg kicks, keeping McCann on the back foot for three rounds. Her length allows her to land kicks at range before opponents can close distance.

Brasil has a solid guillotine choke as a defensive weapon when opponents shoot. Her long arms and good technique make this a legitimate threat when fighters overcommit on takedowns. Against Shauna Bannon in 2023, Brasil demonstrated effective cage cutting and combination striking, using feints to draw reactions before landing precise counters.

The problem is Brasil has lost 2 of her last 3 UFC fights. She dropped a unanimous decision to Wang Cong in February 2025 and lost to Loma Lookboonmee in February 2024. The Lookboonmee fight exposed her struggles against fighters who can control distance from the clinch and land precise strikes. When her leg kick game gets neutralized, Brasil lacks a clear Plan B.

Signature Techniques: - Leg kicks from range to slow opponent movement (effective vs McCann in rounds 1-2) - Muay Thai knees in the clinch (used to control McCann throughout their fight) - Spinning kicks and unorthodox strikes (though these have been inconsistent)

Technical Evolution: Brasil has improved her wrestling defense in recent fights, showing better takedown defense ratios. But her striking output differentials remain negative, meaning she's absorbing more than she's landing across her UFC career.

Bruna Brasil's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Chin Exposure When Retreating: Brasil has a dangerous habit of stepping back with her chin up when under pressure. Denise Gomes exploited this in April 2023, landing overhand punches that led to a TKO finish. Brasil's defensive posture when moving backward creates a clear target for power punchers.

2. Overcommitment on Spinning Techniques: Brasil loves spinning kicks and strikes, but she often overextends and loses balance. Against Gomes, these attacks left her positionally compromised and open to counters. The flashy techniques look good when they land but create massive openings when they miss.

3. Struggles Against Clinch Pressure: Lookboonmee controlled Brasil effectively from the clinch in their 2024 fight, landing precise strikes while Brasil struggled to create separation. When opponents can close distance and work inside, Brasil's range-dependent game falls apart.

Warning: Brasil was KO'd by Denise Gomes in April 2023. That same chin vulnerability could be exploited again.

Ketlen Souza's Breakdown

Ketlen Souza fights with a composed, counter-striking style that punishes aggressive opponents. Her performance against Yazmin Jauregui at UFC 306 showcased her best attributes. She stayed patient under early pressure, then landed a devastating right hand-left hook combination that dropped Jauregui. From there, she secured back position and finished with a rear-naked choke in round one.

Souza's counterpunching system is built around inside slipping. She slips to her left against forward pressure, then fires short right straights or left hooks. Against Angela Hill in February 2025, she used this technique repeatedly, picking Hill apart despite losing a split decision. Her body work is particularly notable. She commits to right straights to the body that drain opponents' cardio and open up head strikes later.

Against Marnic Mann in April 2024, Souza dominated with volume, landing 80 significant strikes to Mann's 31. She showed she can push pace when needed, not just counter. Her recent fights demonstrate improved defensive movement and better cage cutting ability.

Signature Techniques: - Inside slip to left hook counter (used effectively vs Hill throughout their fight) - Right straight to the body (set up the finish vs Jauregui by compromising her breathing) - Stance switching off inside low kicks (created new angles vs Hill in round 3)

Technical Evolution: Souza has expanded her kicking arsenal recently, using inside low kicks as positioning tools rather than just offensive weapons. Her ability to switch stances mid-fight has improved, creating confusion for opponents trying to read her counters.

Ketlen Souza's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Gaps During Stance Switches: When Souza transitions from orthodox to southpaw following an inside low kick, she momentarily drops her guard. This creates a brief window for counters that technically aware opponents can exploit.

2. Body Exposure Under High Guard: Souza relies on a high guard defensive shell when pressured. While this protects her head, it leaves her body exposed to kicks. Hill targeted this vulnerability in their 2025 fight, landing body kicks when Souza shelled up.

3. Submission Vulnerability: Souza lost to Karine Silva via leg lock in June 2023. When the fight goes to the ground against skilled grapplers, Souza has shown susceptibility to lower body submissions. Her grappling defense has improved but remains a question mark against submission specialists.

Note: Souza has lost 2 of her last 3 fights (split decisions to Piera Rodriguez and Angela Hill), though both were razor-close.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup favors Souza's counter-striking against Brasil's forward pressure and spinning attacks. Brasil's tendency to overcommit on spinning techniques plays directly into Souza's inside slip counter system. When Brasil throws those spinning kicks and misses, Souza can time her right hand-left hook combination.

Brasil's habit of retreating with her chin up is particularly concerning against Souza's counterpunching. Souza has shown she can hurt opponents with precise counters, as she did against Jauregui. Brasil's defensive posture when moving backward creates the exact openings Souza looks for.

The leg kick battle could be interesting. Brasil lands 0.46 leg kicks per minute while Souza lands 0.88. Souza's higher output here could slow Brasil's movement and limit her ability to set up those spinning attacks.

However, Brasil's clinch knees could cause problems if she can close distance. Souza's high guard leaves her body exposed, and Brasil's Muay Thai background gives her tools to work inside. The question is whether Brasil can get there against Souza's jab and counter system.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Souza likely establishes her jab and counterpunching rhythm. Brasil will look to land leg kicks and set up her spinning attacks. If Brasil overcommits early, Souza has the timing to punish her. The first round could be feeling-out, but Souza's composure gives her an edge in reading Brasil's patterns.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Brasil's spinning attacks aren't landing, she'll need to shift to more conventional striking. This plays into Souza's hands, as Brasil becomes more predictable. Souza's body work should start paying dividends here, slowing Brasil's movement and reducing her power output.

Late Rounds: Brasil's cardio has been tested in her recent decision losses. Souza's body punching and pace control could compound any fatigue issues. If the fight goes to the third round, Souza's conditioning and technical execution should give her the edge.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brasil's spinning attacks are high-risk against Souza's counters. Every missed spinning kick creates an opening for Souza's right hand-left hook combination.
• Brasil's chin vulnerability is a major concern. She was KO'd by Gomes in 2023, and Souza has the timing and power to find that chin when Brasil retreats.
• Souza's body work could be decisive. Her commitment to body punching drains opponents' cardio and creates openings for head strikes.
• Brasil has lost 2 of her last 3 fights. This downward trend suggests she's struggling against UFC-level competition.
• Souza's counterpunching system matches up well. Brasil's forward pressure and overcommitment create the exact openings Souza exploits.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Souza comes from several key factors:

• TrueSkill increased the prediction score by 3.0. Souza's overall skill rating is higher than Brasil's, reflecting her more consistent performances.
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2.0. Both fighters are 1-2 in their last 3, but Souza's wins have been more impressive.
• Reach increased the score by 2.0. Souza's 63-inch reach vs Brasil's 65-inch reach is actually shorter, but the model factors in how each fighter uses their length.
• Odds decreased the score by 3.0. Souza is the favorite at -155, which the model accounts for.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0. Brasil actually has better striking impact numbers, but this wasn't enough to overcome other factors.
• Average Striking Output Differential decreased the score by 1.0. Both fighters have negative differentials, but Brasil's is worse at -66.0 vs Souza's -27.6.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. For Brasil, the model correctly predicted her loss to Wang Cong and her loss to Lookboonmee, but incorrectly picked McCann to beat her. The model has been right when betting against Brasil.

For Souza, the model correctly predicted her win over Marnic Mann but incorrectly picked Jauregui to beat her. The model also correctly predicted Souza would lose to Rodriguez and Hill, though both were split decisions.

The model has been more accurate when picking against Brasil (2-1) than when picking for or against Souza (3-1). This suggests some confidence in the Souza pick, though the Jauregui upset is worth noting.

Conclusion

Ketlen Souza's counter-striking system matches up well against Bruna Brasil's aggressive, spinning-heavy approach. Brasil's tendency to overcommit and retreat with her chin up creates the exact openings Souza exploits. With Brasil coming off a loss to Wang Cong and having been KO'd by Gomes in 2023, the chin vulnerability remains a concern. Souza's body work and patience should allow her to pick Brasil apart over three rounds. WolfTicketsAI has Souza winning this one, and the technical matchup supports that call.