Analysis: Amir Albazi vs Kyoji Horiguchi

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Kyoji Horiguchi to Win

Score: 26
Odds:
Amir Albazi: +285
Kyoji Horiguchi: -350

Amir Albazi's Breakdown

Albazi enters this fight in a concerning spot. His last outing against Brandon Moreno at UFC 310 was a rough watch. He appeared compromised physically, likely due to spinal and cardiac surgeries that kept him sidelined. The fight exposed significant regression across all phases of his game.

Signature Techniques:

1. Clinch Takedowns and Back Control: Albazi built his reputation on dragging opponents to the mat and hunting submissions. Against Francisco Figueiredo, he secured a trip takedown, established back control, and finished with a rear-naked choke at 4:34 of round one. His ability to chain clinch work into dominant positions was his bread and butter.

2. Ground-and-Pound from Top Position: Against Alessandro Costa, Albazi dropped him with a right cross in round two, maintained closed guard, and delivered consistent ground strikes. The third round saw him land an uppercut that put Costa away for good.

3. Leg Kicks as Range Finders: Against Zhalgas Zhumagulov, Albazi's leg kicks disrupted his opponent's balance and set up takedown entries. These kicks caused Zhumagulov to switch stances repeatedly.

Technical Evolution Concerns:

The Moreno fight showed none of these weapons working. Albazi stood stationary, absorbed punishment, and couldn't maintain top control after securing takedowns. When he took Moreno down, Moreno used a basic butt-scoot retreat and Albazi lost him before he even reached the fence. That's not supposed to happen against a fighter of Albazi's caliber.

His recent win percentage sits at 67%, having lost 2 of his last 3 fights. The split decision over Kai Kara-France was competitive and debatable. His striking output differentials are negative across the board, suggesting he's been outlanded consistently.

Amir Albazi's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Static Striking Defense: Against Moreno, Albazi stood flat-footed and absorbed strikes without head movement or defensive footwork. Moreno landed loaded left hooks repeatedly, some thrown with Todd Duffee-level wind-up, and Albazi never made adjustments. Horiguchi's explosive karate entries will find a stationary target.

2. Left Hook Recognition Failure: Throughout the Moreno fight, Albazi never identified the left hook as a problem. Moreno threw open-glove slaps and power hooks from the same side all night. Horiguchi's left hook dropped Dustin Pague in his UFC debut and has remained a weapon throughout his career.

3. Inability to Maintain Top Control: Even when Albazi secured takedowns against Moreno, he couldn't follow basic grappling sequences. Moreno escaped before reaching the cage using fundamental movement. Against a scrambler like Horiguchi who escaped Pague's back control and reversed position repeatedly, this is a major red flag.

Kyoji Horiguchi's Breakdown

Horiguchi returned to the UFC after nine years away and delivered a statement performance against Tagir Ulanbekov. At 35, he showed the speed, power, and grappling evolution that made him a dual champion in RIZIN and Bellator.

Signature Techniques:

1. Karate-Style Blitz Attacks: Horiguchi's foundation remains his explosive distance management. Against Ulanbekov, he explained post-fight: "My distance. I kept it far and made it uncomfortable for him to enter." He bursts through space with alarming speed, lands combinations, and exits before opponents can respond. Against Neil Seery, he dropped him within 30 seconds with a left hook using this exact approach.

2. Devastating Leg Kicks: His calf and thigh kicks compromised Ulanbekov's base throughout their fight. In round two, a leg kick took Ulanbekov completely off his feet, allowing Horiguchi to advance to top position. Against Chico Camus, his outside leg kicks were described as "on point" throughout.

3. Head Kick to Submission Chains: Against Ulanbekov, Horiguchi connected with a head kick at 1:42 of round three that dropped his opponent, then immediately transitioned to back control and secured a rear-naked choke. This ability to chain striking into grappling sequences shows his complete evolution at American Top Team.

Technical Evolution:

The Ulanbekov fight demonstrated Horiguchi's improved grappling. He secured 3.5 minutes of control time in round two against a Dagestani wrestler. Against Ali Bagautinov, another Sambo specialist, he "pitched a shutout in a way contrary to his usual in-and-out striking style" by engaging in grappling exchanges and repeatedly taking Bagautinov's back.

His recent win percentage is 100%, and his striking differentials are all positive. He's landing more and absorbing less than his opponents across every metric.

Kyoji Horiguchi's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Early Round Adversity: Against Ulanbekov, Horiguchi conceded a takedown in round one and was dropped by a calf kick late in the first. He's shown he can be taken down early before finding his rhythm. Albazi's best chance comes in the opening minutes if he can establish grappling before Horiguchi times his entries.

2. Susceptibility to Leg Kicks: Ulanbekov's calf kick knocked Horiguchi off his feet in round one. His wide karate stance creates vulnerability to low kicks. However, Albazi's leg kick game hasn't been a featured weapon in recent fights.

3. Size Disadvantage: Horiguchi is the smaller man at 5'5" with a 63-inch reach compared to Albazi's 68-inch reach. This 5-inch reach disadvantage means he must close distance to land, which creates takedown opportunities for Albazi.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Horiguchi's Techniques vs Albazi's Defensive Gaps:

Horiguchi's explosive karate entries match up perfectly against Albazi's demonstrated static striking defense. The left hooks and straight punches that Moreno landed repeatedly are the same weapons Horiguchi has used throughout his career. When Horiguchi dropped Seery with a left hook in 30 seconds, Seery was moving and defending. Albazi stood still against Moreno.

Horiguchi's leg kicks could compromise Albazi's already questionable movement. Against Zhumagulov, Albazi used leg kicks effectively, but against Moreno, his mobility was severely limited. Horiguchi's calf kicks took down Ulanbekov, a fresher, more mobile opponent.

Albazi's Techniques vs Horiguchi's Tendencies:

Albazi's best path to victory runs through early grappling. Horiguchi has shown vulnerability to first-round takedowns throughout his career. Against Demetrious Johnson, he was controlled extensively once taken down. However, Albazi's recent inability to maintain top control raises serious questions about whether he can capitalize even if he gets Horiguchi down.

Albazi's clinch work and trip takedowns were effective against Figueiredo and Zhumagulov. If he can close distance without eating Horiguchi's counters, he has the technique to initiate grappling. The problem is getting there against someone with Horiguchi's timing.

Historical Comparison:

Horiguchi's title fight against Demetrious Johnson provides a template for how elite grapplers can neutralize his striking. Johnson converted 14 of 22 takedowns and accumulated over 13 minutes of control time. But Johnson is an all-time great, and Albazi's recent performances suggest he's nowhere near that level currently.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Horiguchi typically starts cautiously, finding his range before opening up. Against Gaudinot, he was tentative in round one before dominating rounds two and three. Against Ulanbekov, he lost round one. This creates a window for Albazi.

If Albazi can pressure early and secure takedowns before Horiguchi finds his timing, he has a chance to accumulate control time. But his recent grappling struggles suggest Horiguchi will escape and return to the feet.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

Once Horiguchi finds his rhythm, he becomes increasingly dangerous. Against Camus, he "turned up the volume and started cracking off three and four combinations in a row" after a competitive first round. His leg kicks accumulate damage, compromising opponent mobility.

Albazi's cardio concerns from the Moreno fight loom large here. He faded as that fight progressed, and Horiguchi's pace and pressure could expose similar issues.

Championship Rounds (if applicable):

This is a three-round fight, but Horiguchi's conditioning at 35 looked excellent against Ulanbekov. He finished strong with a leaping left hook to start round three, followed by the head kick and submission. Albazi's recent performances suggest he won't improve as the fight progresses.

Analysis and Key Points

• Albazi's physical concerns are real: The spinal and cardiac surgeries that sidelined him appear to have affected his performance. His movement against Moreno was described as "like he had a fused spine."

• Horiguchi's speed advantage will be significant: Even at 35, Horiguchi's hand speed dropped Ulanbekov and Seery. Albazi's static defense invites these attacks.

• Grappling may not save Albazi: His inability to maintain top control against Moreno suggests Horiguchi's scrambling ability will allow him to return to the feet.

• Leg kicks could be decisive: Horiguchi's calf kicks dropped Ulanbekov. Albazi's compromised mobility makes him vulnerable to the same attacks.

• Horiguchi's recent form is elite: A submission finish over a previously unfinished Dagestani wrestler at 35 years old shows he's operating at a high level.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 26 reflects several factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 16.0. Horiguchi is a heavy favorite at -350, and the model adjusts for implied probability from the betting market.

• Reach increased the prediction score by 2.0. Interestingly, despite Albazi having the reach advantage (68" vs 63"), this feature favored Horiguchi, possibly reflecting how Horiguchi has historically overcome reach disadvantages.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the prediction score by 1.0. Horiguchi's 62.8% significant striking defense outperforms Albazi's 61.5%.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0. Albazi's negative differential (-14.33) compared to Horiguchi's positive differential (+19.22) actually worked against the prediction, suggesting the model weighs other factors more heavily.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0. Albazi's 67% recent win rate versus Horiguchi's 100% creates separation.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Albazi:

• Correct: Predicted Brandon Moreno to beat Albazi with a score of 0.55. Moreno won by unanimous decision.
• Incorrect: Predicted Kai Kara-France to beat Albazi with a score of 0.56. Albazi won by split decision.
• Correct: Predicted Albazi to beat Francisco Figueiredo with a score of 0.75. Albazi won by submission.

The model has never predicted a Horiguchi fight, as this is his first UFC bout since 2016. This creates some uncertainty, though his dominant return against Ulanbekov suggests the model's current assessment is reasonable.

Risk Factor: The model was wrong about Albazi once, picking against him when he won a close split decision. However, that was a different Albazi, one who hadn't undergone spinal and cardiac surgeries.

Conclusion

Horiguchi's explosive karate striking, improved grappling, and recent dominant performance position him well against an Albazi who appears diminished from his peak. The speed differential, Albazi's static defense, and his inability to maintain top control all favor the Japanese veteran. While Albazi's grappling could theoretically neutralize Horiguchi's striking, his recent performances suggest he can't execute that game plan effectively.

WolfTicketsAI picks Kyoji Horiguchi to win, and the technical matchup supports that conclusion. Expect Horiguchi to find his range, land damaging combinations, and either finish Albazi or cruise to a clear decision.