Analysis: Alex Morono vs Daniil Donchenko

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniil Donchenko to Win

Score: 27
Odds:
Alex Morono: +420
Daniil Donchenko: -550

Alex Morono's Breakdown

Alex Morono enters this fight on a rough stretch, having lost three of his last four UFC bouts. The most recent loss came against Carlos Leal in March 2025, where Morono was stopped by strikes after getting badly hurt in the clinch. That fight exposed some serious concerns about his durability at this stage of his career.

Signature Techniques:

1. Bouncing Entry to Jab-Right Hand: Morono works off a karate-influenced bouncing base that makes his timing hard to read. Against Santiago Ponzinibbio, he used this movement to land clean one-twos that stunned Ponzinibbio in the early rounds. The constant motion numbs opponents to his actual attacks.

2. Guillotine Choke: His most reliable submission weapon. Against Tim Means, Morono secured a beautiful arm-in guillotine with perfect hand placement in the throat, using a sit-up motion to force the tap. He first grabbed a Matt Lindland-style grip before transitioning to the proper finish.

3. Extended Combinations: Morono adapted mid-fight against Means by extending his combinations beyond the initial right hand, catching opponents who linger in range after their counter attempts.

Technical Evolution:

Morono has shifted from hunting early finishes to a more measured approach in recent years, winning several unanimous decisions. However, his performance against Leal suggests the accumulated damage from 37 professional fights is catching up. At 34, he's showing signs of wear that weren't there earlier in his career.

Alex Morono's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Clinch Striking Defense: Against Carlos Leal, Morono was systematically beaten up in the clinch. Leal used dirty boxing and inside work to damage Morono significantly. When backed against the cage, Morono resorted to throwing wild overhands while appearing nearly unconscious. This is a major red flag against any opponent with inside fighting ability.

2. Durability Under Fire: When hurt, Morono's defensive reactions have deteriorated. Against Leal, he leaned on the fence throwing desperation punches while essentially out on his feet. Against Khaos Williams, he was knocked out in 27 seconds. Power punchers can end his night early.

3. Cardio Management: Against Niko Price in 2024, both fighters gassed badly after an explosive first round, moving at "0.5 times speed" according to analysts. Morono's high-output style early can leave him depleted if he doesn't get the finish.

Daniil Donchenko's Breakdown

Donchenko is a relative unknown in the UFC, with only one octagon appearance under his belt. He stopped Rodrigo Sezinando by TKO in September 2025, but detailed technical analysis of that fight is limited. His stats paint an interesting picture though.

Signature Techniques:

1. High-Volume Head Striking: Donchenko lands 6.52 head strikes per minute, well above Morono's 3.99. He throws with volume and accuracy, connecting on 57% of his significant strikes.

2. Pressure and Output: His striking output differential of +35 per fight is massive. He overwhelms opponents with sheer volume, landing 9.44 total strikes per minute.

3. Takedown Threat: Donchenko attempts over 10 takedowns per fight, creating a constant threat that can disrupt an opponent's striking rhythm.

Technical Evolution:

With only one UFC fight, it's difficult to track evolution. His regional record of 13-2 suggests he's been dominant outside the big show, but the step up in competition remains the question mark.

Daniil Donchenko's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense: Donchenko's takedown defense ratio sits at just 0.33, meaning he's been taken down in his limited UFC sample. Against a fighter with any wrestling threat, this could be exploited.

2. Limited UFC Experience: One fight is simply not enough data to understand how he handles adversity at the highest level. We don't know how he reacts when his primary gameplan fails.

3. Unknown Durability: Without extensive UFC footage, his chin and recovery remain question marks. Morono does carry power in his right hand when he lands clean.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits Donchenko's volume and pressure against Morono's experience and technical striking. The key questions:

Donchenko's Advantages: - His 6.52 head strikes landed per minute dwarfs Morono's 3.99. If he can establish his jab and maintain output, he'll outwork Morono on the scorecards. - The constant takedown threat (10+ attempts per fight) could freeze Morono's bouncing entries, making him easier to hit. - Donchenko's 72% striking defense is significantly better than Morono's 53%, suggesting he's harder to hit clean.

Morono's Paths to Victory: - His guillotine threat could punish sloppy takedown attempts. Against Tim Means, Morono showed he can capitalize when opponents shoot without proper setup. - If Donchenko's takedown defense is truly poor (0.33 ratio), Morono could potentially use his own wrestling to control positions. - Experience matters. Morono has been in wars with killers like Ponzinibbio, Buckley, and Pettis. He knows how to survive deep waters.

The problem for Morono is his recent durability issues. Against Carlos Leal, he showed he can be hurt and finished when pressured in the clinch. Donchenko's high output could create similar problems.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Donchenko's volume advantage should establish itself quickly. Morono tends to start fast with his bouncing entries, but if Donchenko can weather that initial storm and maintain his output, he'll begin building a lead. Morono's cardio concerns from the Niko Price fight suggest he can't sustain his early pace.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Morono survives the early onslaught, his experience could help him find counters. Against Means, he showed the ability to extend combinations when opponents stayed in range. But Donchenko's superior striking defense (72% vs 53%) suggests he won't be as hittable.

Late Rounds: Morono's recent performances suggest he fades. Against Price, he was moving at half-speed after round one. Donchenko's volume game should only become more dominant as Morono tires.

Analysis and Key Points

• Morono was recently KO'd by Carlos Leal in March 2025, showing serious durability concerns when pressured in the clinch. This is a major warning sign.
• Donchenko has only one UFC fight, which limits our data. However, his regional dominance (13-2) and statistical profile suggest a high-output pressure fighter.
• Volume differential is massive: Donchenko lands 9.44 strikes per minute to Morono's 5.87. Over 15 minutes, that adds up.
• Morono's recent win percentage is 0% in his last stretch, having lost three of four. The downward trend is real.
• The odds heavily favor Donchenko (-550), and the model agrees despite limited data on the Russian.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 27 for Donchenko is relatively low, but several factors pushed the prediction:

• Odds decreased the score by 18 points. Donchenko is a heavy favorite, which the model accounts for.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased by 2 points, reflecting Morono's historical advantage in this area.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased by 2 points, acknowledging Morono's recent struggles.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased by 2 points.
• Reach increased the score by 1 point. Donchenko's 71-inch reach is close to Morono's 72 inches.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased by 1 point, favoring Donchenko's 72% defense.

The model sees Donchenko's volume and defensive advantages outweighing Morono's experience edge.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a solid track record with Morono fights, going 6-2 in predictions involving him:

• Correctly predicted Carlos Leal to beat Morono (0.78 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Daniel Rodriguez to beat Morono (0.58 confidence)
• Incorrectly predicted Morono over Niko Price (0.64 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Morono over Court McGee (0.58 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Buckley over Morono (0.42 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Morono over Tim Means (0.30 confidence)
• Correctly predicted Ponzinibbio over Morono (0.70 confidence)
• Incorrectly predicted Semelsberger over Morono (0.33 confidence)

The model has been particularly accurate when picking against Morono recently, correctly calling his losses to Leal, Rodriguez, Buckley, and Ponzinibbio.

Donchenko has no prediction history, which adds uncertainty. The model is working with limited UFC data on him.

Conclusion

Daniil Donchenko should handle Alex Morono here. The volume differential is too significant, and Morono's recent durability issues against Carlos Leal are concerning. Morono has the experience and submission threat to make it interesting, but his 0% recent win rate and the KO loss in March suggest he's on the decline. Donchenko's pressure and output should overwhelm the veteran over three rounds. WolfTicketsAI has Donchenko taking this one.