Analysis: Vanessa Demopoulos vs Emily Ducote

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Emily Ducote to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Vanessa Demopoulos: 260 Emily Ducote: -325

Vanessa Demopoulos's Breakdown

Vanessa Demopoulos is a grappling specialist known for her submission skills, having secured four tapout victories in her career. She's a scrappy fighter who looks to take the fight to the ground and submit her opponents. In her last fight against Kanako Murata, Demopoulos showcased her grappling prowess, attacking with armbar attempts from guard and threatening with triangle chokes. She's not afraid to pull guard to get the fight to the mat.

On the feet, Demopoulos has a high-volume style, landing 5.84 strikes per minute. She throws a lot of looping punches and often charges forward aggressively. However, her striking defense is a liability, absorbing 4.57 significant strikes per minute in her recent fights.

Despite her loss to Karolina Kowalkiewicz, which snapped her three-fight winning streak, Demopoulos has shown resilience and the ability to secure submissions from precarious positions, as seen in her comeback win over Silvana Gomez Juarez. If she can weather Ducote's early storm and drag the fight into deeper waters, her grappling prowess could swing the momentum in her favor.

Emily Ducote's Breakdown

Emily Ducote is a well-rounded fighter who captured and defended the Invicta FC strawweight title before joining the UFC. She's a technical kickboxer with solid takedown defense, landing a heavy 6.93 significant strikes per minute, with 1.57 leg kicks landed per minute. In her fight against Jessica Penne, Ducote utilized good lateral movement and landed sharp 1-2 combinations down the middle.

Ducote's wrestling pedigree could be a key factor in this matchup. Her ability to dictate the grappling exchanges and control Demopoulos on the ground could neutralize the latter's submission threats. Additionally, her calf kicks have proven effective in battering her opponents' lead legs, potentially limiting Demopoulos' movement.

While she impressed in her UFC debut against Jessica Penne, Ducote has since dropped back-to-back fights against Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez. However, her takedown defense has held up well in the UFC so far, stuffing 63.9% of attempts in her last 3 fights. She's difficult to hold down and does a good job of scrambling back to her feet.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappler vs Striker matchup: Demopoulos will likely look to get this fight to the ground early and often, while Ducote wants to keep it standing.
• Demopoulos's guard game: Watch for Demopoulos to attack submissions off her back if she can't secure takedowns. She's crafty from bottom position.
• Ducote's takedown defense and wrestling: A key for Ducote will be stuffing those takedown attempts, using her wrestling to control Demopoulos, and making her pay on the feet.
• Striking discrepancy: Ducote lands more volume (6.08 vs 4.45 significant strikes/min recently) and does so more accurately (44% vs 50%). She should have the edge at range, especially with her calf kicks.
• Age and experience: While Demopoulos is 32 years old and Ducote is 30, their experience levels are relatively comparable, with both fighters having over a decade of professional experience. Age is unlikely to play a significant role in this evenly matched contest.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds heavily favor Ducote and that aligns with the model shifting the score by 10 points in her favor.
• Recent takedowns: Demopoulos's 5.11 takedowns attempted per fight recently increased the score by 5 points, showing the model expects her grappling to be a path to victory.
• Striking differential: Ducote's significant striking differentials are superior both over UFC career (+21.17 to -21.17) and recently (+21.70 to -21.71). Those stats improved her score.
• Striking defense: Ducote's 56.6% significant strike defense is much better than Demopoulos's 43.1%. The model decreased Demopoulos's score by 2 points because of that gap.

Past Model Performance

For Vanessa Demopoulos, the model has had mixed results, correctly picking her to lose to Karolina Kowalkiewicz and beat Silvana Gomez Juarez, but incorrectly predicting losses in her other 3 UFC fights. So the model has been right in 2 of 5 Demopoulos predictions.

With Emily Ducote, the model has been on point, correctly predicting her last 3 fights including wins over Ashley Yoder and Jessica Penne and a loss to Loopy Godinez. The model has a 100% success rate recently in picking Ducote's fights.

Conclusion

The model favors Emily Ducote here and it's not hard to see why. Her takedown defense, wrestling pedigree, and striking skills match up well with Demopoulos's grapple-heavy approach. Unless Demopoulos can consistently drag Ducote to the mat, keep her there, and threaten with submissions, expect the kickboxing and wrestling of Ducote to be the difference.

Ducote has also been easier for the model to predict accurately as of late compared to the hit-or-miss nature of Demopoulos predictions. So while there are always risks involved, Ducote looks like the more reliable side to be on based on the model's analysis and output. This fight could come down to Ducote's ability to impose her wrestling and strike effectively from the outside, versus Demopoulos' submission threats and resilience on the ground. A closely contested battle is expected, with the winner potentially positioning themselves for bigger opportunities in the strawweight division.