Analysis: Khaos Williams vs Carlston Harris

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Khaos Williams to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Khaos Williams: -140 Carlston Harris: 110

Khaos Williams's Breakdown

Khaos Williams (14-3 MMA, 5-2 UFC) is a 30-year-old fighter from Detroit, Michigan, representing Murcielago MMA. Standing at 6'0" with a 77" reach, Williams is known for his explosive power and ability to end fights early. In his UFC career, he has scored highlight reel KOs over the likes of Abdul Razak Alhassan and Alex Morono. His striking is precise and devastating, landing 5.77 significant strikes per minute at a 42.2% accuracy in his recent fights.

However, Williams has shown some vulnerabilities too. He lost a split decision to Randy Brown in 2022, getting outstruck. His takedown defense is also a potential weak point, successfully defending only 58% of takedowns in his last few bouts. Against a grappling-focused opponent, this could spell trouble. Williams has won three of his last four fights, with his most recent victory coming against Rolando Bedoya by split decision in May 2023.

Carlston Harris's Breakdown

Carlston Harris (19-5 MMA, 4-1 UFC), nicknamed "Mocambique," is a 36-year-old fighter from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, representing Renovação Fight Team. He also stands at 6'0" with a 76" reach. Harris is a submission specialist, racking up submissions in 3 of his 5 UFC wins so far. Most recently, he tapped out Jeremiah Wells with an arm-triangle choke. His grappling is high-level, landing 1.87 takedowns per fight and attempting over 8 on average.

On the feet, Harris is competent but not outstanding. He absorbs slightly more significant strikes than he lands per minute. His 62.3% striking defense in recent fights is decent but not impenetrable. He was also knocked out by Shavkat Rakhmonov last year, showing he can be hurt by powerful strikers. Harris has won back-to-back fights, including a come-from-behind submission win over Jeremiah Wells in August 2023.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striker vs Grappler matchup: Williams will want to keep it standing, while Harris will look to take it to the mat and work his submission game.
• Power vs Durability: Khaos has fight-ending power, but Carlston has only been finished once in the UFC. Can Harris weather the early storm?
• Potential paths to victory: For Williams, an early KO is his best bet. The longer it goes, the more Harris can implement his grappling. Harris will want to get it to the ground ASAP and work for a submission.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The odds significantly favor Williams, and this increased the model's score by 5 points. The betting market sees Khaos as a solid favorite.
• Recent Win Percentage: Khaos's 67% win rate in his last few fights boosted the prediction by 3 points compared to Carlston's.
• Striking Metrics: Williams lands more damaging strikes, increasing the score. His striking output and impact differentials are higher both overall and in recent fights.

Past Model Performance

The model has been less accurate when predicting Harris's fights. It incorrectly picked Jeremiah Wells to beat him in 2023.

For Williams, the model correctly predicted his 2022 loss to Randy Brown with 74% confidence.

With the model having a mixed track record on these fighters, and never picking Harris to win, this decreases confidence in the prediction somewhat. It leans heavily on Khaos's favored status and striking advantages.

Tapology Community Predictions

Interestingly, despite the model favoring Williams, 100% of the votes on Tapology predict Harris to win the bout, though the method of victory is not specified. This contrasts with the betting odds and the model's pick, adding intrigue to this matchup.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a Khaos Williams victory, likely by KO/TKO, based on his powerful and effective striking. However, Carlston Harris's submission skills pose a real threat if he can get the fight to the mat.

The odds and striking data support Williams, but the model's shaky history predicting these fighters' past bouts, combined with the unanimous Tapology community pick for Harris, makes this a riskier pick. For bettors, the smart move may be to avoid putting too much on Khaos, or to look toward prop bets on method of victory instead of just the moneyline. Regardless of outcome, this clash of styles promises excitement on the prelims of UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy!