The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Score: 7 Odds: Edson Barboza: 130 Lerone Murphy: -155
Edson Barboza, a 38-year-old Brazilian veteran, is known for his elite striking, particularly his devastating kicks. With a professional record of 24-11 MMA and 18-11 in the UFC, Barboza is looking to make one final title run in the featherweight division.
In his most recent fight against Sodiq Yusuff, Barboza relied heavily on his striking and was able to secure a unanimous decision victory. However, in his two previous fights against Bryce Mitchell and Giga Chikadze, Barboza was outstruck and ultimately lost by decision and TKO respectively.
Barboza's striking defense has been a concern in recent fights, with his Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage at 64.36%, lower than his career average of 57.86%. This could be a liability against a precise striker like Murphy.
Lerone Murphy, a 32-year-old rising star from Manchester, England, is undefeated in his professional MMA career with a record of 13-0-1 MMA and 5-0-1 in the UFC. He is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling skills, and views this fight as his biggest opportunity yet to prove he is ready for a title shot.
In his most recent fight against Josh Culibao, Murphy showcased his striking prowess, landing 51.68 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 51.97%. He also has good takedown defense, with a Recent Takedown Defense Ratio of 1.5236.
Murphy's striking defense is also superior to Barboza's, with a Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage of 63.94%. His ability to avoid damage while landing his own shots could be key in this matchup.
WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record in predicting Barboza's fights, correctly picking him to lose to Mitchell but incorrectly predicting a loss to Quarantillo. However, the model has been accurate in its one previous prediction for Murphy, correctly backing him to defeat Culibao.
The limited prediction history for Murphy adds some uncertainty to this pick, but WolfTicketsAI's 2-1 overall record on these fighters lends some credibility.
WolfTicketsAI predicts a victory for Lerone Murphy in this pivotal featherweight clash. As an undefeated prospect, Murphy is the younger, hungrier contender looking to make a statement against a respected veteran in Barboza.
The underlying metrics support this pick, with Murphy's striking accuracy, defense, and overall impact giving him the edge. While Barboza's experience and highlight reel finishes can never be counted out, his declining durability and striking absorption are concerning.
This shapes up to be an entertaining striking battle, but Murphy's youth, speed, and technical prowess should carry him to a decision victory or possibly a late stoppage as Barboza fades. With a potential title shot on the line, trust the AI and back Murphy to emerge victorious in his first UFC main event.
Stat | Edson Barboza | Lerone Murphy | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 38 | 32 | 31 | |
Height | 71" | 69" | 70" | |
Reach | 75" | 73" | 71" | |
Win Percentage | 68.57% | 100.00% | 80.00% | |
Wins | 24 | 14 | ||
Losses | 12 | 0 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 4 | 5 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 3 | 1 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 46.02% | 57.37% | 48.83% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 45.00% | 50.00% | 42.82% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.416 | 5.149 | 5.304 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.185 | 3.653 | 3.707 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.704 | 0.431 | 0.368 | |
Striking Impact Differential | -17.66% | 21.67% | 4.65% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -1.86% | 14.50% | 2.91% | |
Striking Output Differential | -29.66% | 28.67% | 8.40% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | -11.83% | 21.00% | 5.98% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 140.40% | 62.57% | 80.31% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 142.50% | 84.65% | 101.59% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 57.86% | 56.28% | 47.01% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.088 | 0.863 | 0.658 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 0.484 | 1.294 | 1.434 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.968 | 2.804 | 3.772 | |
Takedown Defense | 33.33% | 113.33% | 83.42% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 50.00% | 46.15% | 33.28% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.837 | 2.229 | 2.341 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 6.051 | 5.494 | 6.058 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.128 | 1.294 | 2.198 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.318 | 0.978 | 0.807 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.928 | 1.309 | 1.143 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.596 | 0.633 | 0.852 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.030 | 0.446 | 0.560 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 1.321 | 0.503 | 0.685 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.619 | 0.475 | 0.549 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.185 | 0.489 | 0.440 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.229 | 0.561 | 0.587 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.141 | 0.460 | 0.494 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Oct. 14, 2023 | Featherweight | Sodiq Yusuff | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza | |
April 15, 2023 | Featherweight | Edson Barboza | Billy Quarantillo | Edson Barboza | |
March 5, 2022 | Featherweight | Edson Barboza | Bryce Mitchell | Bryce Mitchell | |
Aug. 28, 2021 | Featherweight | Edson Barboza | Giga Chikadze | Giga Chikadze | |
May 15, 2021 | Featherweight | Shane Burgos | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza | |
Oct. 10, 2020 | Featherweight | Edson Barboza | Makwan Amirkhani | Edson Barboza | |
May 16, 2020 | Featherweight | Dan Ige | Edson Barboza | Dan Ige | |
Sept. 7, 2019 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Paul Felder | Paul Felder | |
March 30, 2019 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Justin Gaethje | Justin Gaethje | |
Dec. 15, 2018 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Dan Hooker | Edson Barboza | |
April 21, 2018 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Kevin Lee | Kevin Lee | |
Dec. 30, 2017 | Lightweight | Khabib Nurmagomedov | Edson Barboza | Khabib Nurmagomedov | |
March 11, 2017 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Beneil Dariush | Edson Barboza | |
July 23, 2016 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Gilbert Melendez | Edson Barboza | |
April 23, 2016 | Lightweight | Anthony Pettis | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza | |
Dec. 11, 2015 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Tony Ferguson | Tony Ferguson | |
July 25, 2015 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Paul Felder | Edson Barboza | |
Feb. 22, 2015 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Michael Johnson | Michael Johnson | |
Nov. 22, 2014 | Lightweight | King Green | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza | |
July 16, 2014 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Evan Dunham | Edson Barboza | |
April 19, 2014 | Lightweight | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza | Donald Cerrone | |
Dec. 14, 2013 | Lightweight | Danny Castillo | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza | |
July 6, 2013 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Rafaello Oliveira | Edson Barboza | |
Jan. 19, 2013 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Lucas Martins | Edson Barboza | |
May 26, 2012 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Jamie Varner | Jamie Varner | |
Jan. 14, 2012 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Terry Etim | Edson Barboza | |
Aug. 27, 2011 | Lightweight | Ross Pearson | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza | |
March 19, 2011 | Lightweight | Edson Barboza | Anthony Njokuani | Edson Barboza | |
Nov. 20, 2010 | Lightweight | Mike Lullo | Edson Barboza | Edson Barboza |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 22, 2023 | Featherweight | Lerone Murphy | Josh Culibao | Lerone Murphy | |
March 18, 2023 | Featherweight | Lerone Murphy | Gabriel Santos | Lerone Murphy | |
Oct. 30, 2021 | Featherweight | Makwan Amirkhani | Lerone Murphy | Lerone Murphy | |
Jan. 20, 2021 | Featherweight | Lerone Murphy | Douglas Silva de Andrade | Lerone Murphy | |
July 15, 2020 | Featherweight | Ricardo Ramos | Lerone Murphy | Lerone Murphy | |
Sept. 7, 2019 | Featherweight | Zubaira Tukhugov | Lerone Murphy | None |