Edson Barboza vs. Lerone Murphy - UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Lerone Murphy by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Featherweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

Analysis: Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Lerone Murphy to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Edson Barboza: 130 Lerone Murphy: -155

Edson Barboza's Breakdown

Edson Barboza, a 38-year-old Brazilian veteran, is known for his elite striking, particularly his devastating kicks. With a professional record of 24-11 MMA and 18-11 in the UFC, Barboza is looking to make one final title run in the featherweight division.

In his most recent fight against Sodiq Yusuff, Barboza relied heavily on his striking and was able to secure a unanimous decision victory. However, in his two previous fights against Bryce Mitchell and Giga Chikadze, Barboza was outstruck and ultimately lost by decision and TKO respectively.

Barboza's striking defense has been a concern in recent fights, with his Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage at 64.36%, lower than his career average of 57.86%. This could be a liability against a precise striker like Murphy.

Lerone Murphy's Breakdown

Lerone Murphy, a 32-year-old rising star from Manchester, England, is undefeated in his professional MMA career with a record of 13-0-1 MMA and 5-0-1 in the UFC. He is a well-rounded fighter with solid striking and grappling skills, and views this fight as his biggest opportunity yet to prove he is ready for a title shot.

In his most recent fight against Josh Culibao, Murphy showcased his striking prowess, landing 51.68 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 51.97%. He also has good takedown defense, with a Recent Takedown Defense Ratio of 1.5236.

Murphy's striking defense is also superior to Barboza's, with a Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage of 63.94%. His ability to avoid damage while landing his own shots could be key in this matchup.

Analysis and Key Points

  • Striking Matchup: Both fighters are skilled strikers, but Murphy has the edge in terms of accuracy and defense. Barboza will need to land his signature leg kicks to slow Murphy down.
  • Grappling: While not known primarily as a grappler, Murphy has shown solid takedown defense and submission skills. Barboza rarely goes for takedowns, so this fight will likely remain standing.
  • Reach: Barboza will have a 2-inch reach advantage, which he could use to keep Murphy at range and land his strikes from a distance.
  • Age and Experience: At 38 years old with 35 fights, Barboza has much more experience but also more wear and tear than the 32-year-old Murphy. Ring rust could also be a factor for Barboza, who hasn't fought in over a year.
  • Title Implications: Both fighters see this as a potential title eliminator in the featherweight division, with the winner likely to get a top 5 ranked opponent next. This adds extra significance and motivation to the bout.

Understanding the Prediction

  • Odds: The odds favor Murphy at -155, indicating he is the betting favorite. This aligns with WolfTicketsAI's prediction.
  • Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage: Murphy's 63.94% is significantly higher than Barboza's 64.36%, suggesting Murphy is better at avoiding damage.
  • Recent Striking Impact Differential: Murphy lands 19.07 more strikes than he absorbs per minute, while Barboza absorbs 19.40 more than he lands. This striking differential heavily favors Murphy.
  • TrueSkill: Murphy's TrueSkill rating of 36.33 is higher than Barboza's 32.33, indicating Murphy is considered the superior fighter by this metric.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record in predicting Barboza's fights, correctly picking him to lose to Mitchell but incorrectly predicting a loss to Quarantillo. However, the model has been accurate in its one previous prediction for Murphy, correctly backing him to defeat Culibao.

The limited prediction history for Murphy adds some uncertainty to this pick, but WolfTicketsAI's 2-1 overall record on these fighters lends some credibility.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI predicts a victory for Lerone Murphy in this pivotal featherweight clash. As an undefeated prospect, Murphy is the younger, hungrier contender looking to make a statement against a respected veteran in Barboza.

The underlying metrics support this pick, with Murphy's striking accuracy, defense, and overall impact giving him the edge. While Barboza's experience and highlight reel finishes can never be counted out, his declining durability and striking absorption are concerning.

This shapes up to be an entertaining striking battle, but Murphy's youth, speed, and technical prowess should carry him to a decision victory or possibly a late stoppage as Barboza fades. With a potential title shot on the line, trust the AI and back Murphy to emerge victorious in his first UFC main event.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Edson Barboza Lerone Murphy
Main Stats
Age 38 32
Height 71" 69"
Reach 75" 73"
Win Percentage 68.57% 100.00%
Wins 24 14
Losses 12 0
Wins at Weight Class 4 5
Losses at Weight Class 3 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 46.02% 57.37%
Significant Striking Accuracy 45.00% 50.00%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.416 5.149
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.185 3.653
Knockdowns per Fight 0.704 0.431
Striking Impact Differential -17.66% 21.67%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -1.86% 14.50%
Striking Output Differential -29.66% 28.67%
Significant Striking Output Differential -11.83% 21.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 140.40% 62.57%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 142.50% 84.65%
Striking Defense Percentage 57.86% 56.28%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.088 0.863
Takedowns per Fight 0.484 1.294
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.968 2.804
Takedown Defense 33.33% 113.33%
Takedown Accuracy 50.00% 46.15%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 1.837 2.229
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.051 5.494
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.128 1.294
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.318 0.978
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.928 1.309
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.596 0.633
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 1.030 0.446
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.321 0.503
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.619 0.475
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.185 0.489
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.229 0.561
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.141 0.460
Edson Barboza History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Oct. 14, 2023 Featherweight Sodiq Yusuff Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
April 15, 2023 Featherweight Edson Barboza Billy Quarantillo Edson Barboza
March 5, 2022 Featherweight Edson Barboza Bryce Mitchell Bryce Mitchell
Aug. 28, 2021 Featherweight Edson Barboza Giga Chikadze Giga Chikadze
May 15, 2021 Featherweight Shane Burgos Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
Oct. 10, 2020 Featherweight Edson Barboza Makwan Amirkhani Edson Barboza
May 16, 2020 Featherweight Dan Ige Edson Barboza Dan Ige
Sept. 7, 2019 Lightweight Edson Barboza Paul Felder Paul Felder
March 30, 2019 Lightweight Edson Barboza Justin Gaethje Justin Gaethje
Dec. 15, 2018 Lightweight Edson Barboza Dan Hooker Edson Barboza
April 21, 2018 Lightweight Edson Barboza Kevin Lee Kevin Lee
Dec. 30, 2017 Lightweight Khabib Nurmagomedov Edson Barboza Khabib Nurmagomedov
March 11, 2017 Lightweight Edson Barboza Beneil Dariush Edson Barboza
July 23, 2016 Lightweight Edson Barboza Gilbert Melendez Edson Barboza
April 23, 2016 Lightweight Anthony Pettis Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
Dec. 11, 2015 Lightweight Edson Barboza Tony Ferguson Tony Ferguson
July 25, 2015 Lightweight Edson Barboza Paul Felder Edson Barboza
Feb. 22, 2015 Lightweight Edson Barboza Michael Johnson Michael Johnson
Nov. 22, 2014 Lightweight King Green Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
July 16, 2014 Lightweight Edson Barboza Evan Dunham Edson Barboza
April 19, 2014 Lightweight Donald Cerrone Edson Barboza Donald Cerrone
Dec. 14, 2013 Lightweight Danny Castillo Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
July 6, 2013 Lightweight Edson Barboza Rafaello Oliveira Edson Barboza
Jan. 19, 2013 Lightweight Edson Barboza Lucas Martins Edson Barboza
May 26, 2012 Lightweight Edson Barboza Jamie Varner Jamie Varner
Jan. 14, 2012 Lightweight Edson Barboza Terry Etim Edson Barboza
Aug. 27, 2011 Lightweight Ross Pearson Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
March 19, 2011 Lightweight Edson Barboza Anthony Njokuani Edson Barboza
Nov. 20, 2010 Lightweight Mike Lullo Edson Barboza Edson Barboza
Lerone Murphy History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 22, 2023 Featherweight Lerone Murphy Josh Culibao Lerone Murphy
March 18, 2023 Featherweight Lerone Murphy Gabriel Santos Lerone Murphy
Oct. 30, 2021 Featherweight Makwan Amirkhani Lerone Murphy Lerone Murphy
Jan. 20, 2021 Featherweight Lerone Murphy Douglas Silva de Andrade Lerone Murphy
July 15, 2020 Featherweight Ricardo Ramos Lerone Murphy Lerone Murphy
Sept. 7, 2019 Featherweight Zubaira Tukhugov Lerone Murphy None