The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Ricky Simon comes into this clash as a well-rounded bantamweight with a record marked by an impressive blend of striking and grappling. His recent loss to Song Yadong showed vulnerability, especially against heavy strikers. However, his wins against names like Jack Shore and Raphael Assuncao reflect his growth in striking defense and wrestling. Simon's ability to mix punches with level changes, akin to Kamaru Usman's style, adds unpredictability to his arsenal. His improved head movement, relentless pace, and cardio are his strengths. His wrestling base, complemented by improved striking, makes him a formidable opponent, but he must be cautious of his aggressive forward pressure, which can leave him exposed to counter strikes.
Mario Bautista enters with a record that showcases his versatility in MMA. His ability to blend striking with grappling, as seen in his fights against Guido Cannetti and Brian Kelleher, makes him a threat both on the feet and on the ground. Bautista's strength lies in his adaptability, demonstrated by his evolving striking game and solid ground control. He shares similarities with fighters like Demian Maia in his effective grappling strategies. However, his loss to Trevin Jones by TKO raises concerns about his durability against powerful strikers, a factor that could play a significant role in this fight.
The upcoming battle between Ricky Simon and Mario Bautista is set to be a clash of evolving styles. Simon's recent development in striking, combined with his wrestling pedigree, positions him well against Bautista's versatile skill set. Both fighters have shown improvements over their UFC careers, but Simon's pressure-fighting style and experience against top-tier opponents give him a slight edge. Bautista’s recent unanimous decision win over Da'Mon Blackshear and his undefeated streak in recent fights demonstrate his rising momentum. However, Simon's ability to blend striking with wrestling could be the key to controlling the pace and location of the fight.
Considering the fighters' styles and recent performances, WolfTicketsAI’s prediction favoring Ricky Simon seems justified. Simon's blend of improved striking and robust wrestling is likely to challenge Bautista's versatile approach. The key for Simon will be to use his pressure and pace to control the fight while being mindful of Bautista's striking and submission threats. For Bautista, managing Simon's pressure and finding openings for his own striking and grappling will be crucial. The fight promises to be a showcase of tactical evolution and adaptation, with Simon's pressure and wrestling possibly steering him to victory.
Stat | Ricky Simon | Mario Bautista | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 31 | 30 | 32 | |
Height | 66" | 69" | 68" | |
Reach | 69" | 69" | 69" | |
Win Percentage | 83.33% | 86.67% | 80.28% | |
Wins | 20 | 14 | ||
Losses | 5 | 2 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 7 | 7 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 3 | 2 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 50.76% | 58.68% | 49.68% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 43.59% | 51.70% | 43.83% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.164 | 7.315 | 5.411 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.986 | 5.319 | 4.037 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.439 | 0.209 | 0.661 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 3.09% | 18.11% | 5.63% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -4.18% | 8.89% | 3.97% | |
Striking Output Differential | -14.00% | 20.78% | 5.98% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | -22.36% | 10.56% | 4.29% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 130.05% | 65.84% | 97.95% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 178.43% | 89.50% | 122.74% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 61.59% | 53.12% | 53.71% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.439 | 1.256 | 0.579 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 4.940 | 2.722 | 1.564 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 10.869 | 5.444 | 3.912 | |
Takedown Defense | 30.00% | 76.92% | 75.34% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 45.45% | 50.00% | 31.85% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.020 | 3.364 | 2.570 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 5.650 | 7.790 | 6.799 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.196 | 2.457 | 2.330 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.505 | 1.229 | 0.830 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.681 | 1.605 | 1.215 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.673 | 0.838 | 0.737 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.461 | 0.726 | 0.636 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.520 | 0.893 | 0.783 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.454 | 0.907 | 0.603 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.307 | 1.173 | 0.397 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.381 | 1.438 | 0.544 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.234 | 0.907 | 0.343 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
April 29, 2023 | Bantamweight | Song Yadong | Ricky Simon | Song Yadong | |
July 16, 2022 | Bantamweight | Ricky Simon | Jack Shore | Ricky Simon | |
Dec. 18, 2021 | Bantamweight | Raphael Assuncao | Ricky Simon | Ricky Simon | |
Feb. 13, 2021 | Featherweight | Ricky Simon | Brian Kelleher | Ricky Simon | |
Jan. 20, 2021 | Bantamweight | Ricky Simon | Gaetano Pirrello | Ricky Simon | |
May 13, 2020 | Bantamweight | Ricky Simon | Ray Borg | Ricky Simon | |
Dec. 7, 2019 | Bantamweight | Rob Font | Ricky Simon | Rob Font | |
July 13, 2019 | Bantamweight | Urijah Faber | Ricky Simon | Urijah Faber | |
Feb. 9, 2019 | Bantamweight | Rani Yahya | Ricky Simon | Ricky Simon | |
Aug. 4, 2018 | Bantamweight | Ricky Simon | Montel Jackson | Ricky Simon | |
April 21, 2018 | Bantamweight | Merab Dvalishvili | Ricky Simon | Ricky Simon |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug. 19, 2023 | Bantamweight | Da'Mon Blackshear | Mario Bautista | Mario Bautista | |
March 11, 2023 | Bantamweight | Mario Bautista | Guido Cannetti | Mario Bautista | |
Nov. 5, 2022 | Bantamweight | Mario Bautista | Benito Lopez | Mario Bautista | |
June 25, 2022 | Bantamweight | Brian Kelleher | Mario Bautista | Mario Bautista | |
Feb. 19, 2022 | Bantamweight | Mario Bautista | Jay Perrin | Mario Bautista | |
March 6, 2021 | Bantamweight | Mario Bautista | Trevin Jones | Trevin Jones | |
Feb. 8, 2020 | Bantamweight | Miles Johns | Mario Bautista | Mario Bautista | |
July 20, 2019 | Bantamweight | Mario Bautista | Jin Soo Son | Mario Bautista | |
Jan. 19, 2019 | Bantamweight | Cory Sandhagen | Mario Bautista | Cory Sandhagen |