Results: Ricky Simon vs. Mario Bautista

Winner: Mario Bautista by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 778.00m
Weight Class: Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Ricky Simon vs Mario Bautista

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ricky Simon to Win

Ricky Simon's Breakdown

Ricky Simon comes into this clash as a well-rounded bantamweight with a record marked by an impressive blend of striking and grappling. His recent loss to Song Yadong showed vulnerability, especially against heavy strikers. However, his wins against names like Jack Shore and Raphael Assuncao reflect his growth in striking defense and wrestling. Simon's ability to mix punches with level changes, akin to Kamaru Usman's style, adds unpredictability to his arsenal. His improved head movement, relentless pace, and cardio are his strengths. His wrestling base, complemented by improved striking, makes him a formidable opponent, but he must be cautious of his aggressive forward pressure, which can leave him exposed to counter strikes.

Mario Bautista's Breakdown

Mario Bautista enters with a record that showcases his versatility in MMA. His ability to blend striking with grappling, as seen in his fights against Guido Cannetti and Brian Kelleher, makes him a threat both on the feet and on the ground. Bautista's strength lies in his adaptability, demonstrated by his evolving striking game and solid ground control. He shares similarities with fighters like Demian Maia in his effective grappling strategies. However, his loss to Trevin Jones by TKO raises concerns about his durability against powerful strikers, a factor that could play a significant role in this fight.

Analysis and Key Points

The upcoming battle between Ricky Simon and Mario Bautista is set to be a clash of evolving styles. Simon's recent development in striking, combined with his wrestling pedigree, positions him well against Bautista's versatile skill set. Both fighters have shown improvements over their UFC careers, but Simon's pressure-fighting style and experience against top-tier opponents give him a slight edge. Bautista’s recent unanimous decision win over Da'Mon Blackshear and his undefeated streak in recent fights demonstrate his rising momentum. However, Simon's ability to blend striking with wrestling could be the key to controlling the pace and location of the fight.

Conclusion

Considering the fighters' styles and recent performances, WolfTicketsAI’s prediction favoring Ricky Simon seems justified. Simon's blend of improved striking and robust wrestling is likely to challenge Bautista's versatile approach. The key for Simon will be to use his pressure and pace to control the fight while being mindful of Bautista's striking and submission threats. For Bautista, managing Simon's pressure and finding openings for his own striking and grappling will be crucial. The fight promises to be a showcase of tactical evolution and adaptation, with Simon's pressure and wrestling possibly steering him to victory.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Ricky Simon Mario Bautista
Main Stats
Age 31 30
Height 66" 69"
Reach 69" 69"
Win Percentage 83.33% 86.67%
Wins 20 14
Losses 5 2
Wins at Weight Class 7 7
Losses at Weight Class 3 2
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 50.76% 58.68%
Significant Striking Accuracy 43.59% 51.70%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.164 7.315
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 2.986 5.319
Knockdowns per Fight 0.439 0.209
Striking Impact Differential 3.09% 18.11%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -4.18% 8.89%
Striking Output Differential -14.00% 20.78%
Significant Striking Output Differential -22.36% 10.56%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 130.05% 65.84%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 178.43% 89.50%
Striking Defense Percentage 61.59% 53.12%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.439 1.256
Takedowns per Fight 4.940 2.722
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 10.869 5.444
Takedown Defense 30.00% 76.92%
Takedown Accuracy 45.45% 50.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.020 3.364
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 5.650 7.790
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.196 2.457
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.505 1.229
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.681 1.605
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.673 0.838
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.461 0.726
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.520 0.893
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.454 0.907
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.307 1.173
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.381 1.438
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.234 0.907
Ricky Simon History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 29, 2023 Bantamweight Song Yadong Ricky Simon Song Yadong
July 16, 2022 Bantamweight Ricky Simon Jack Shore Ricky Simon
Dec. 18, 2021 Bantamweight Raphael Assuncao Ricky Simon Ricky Simon
Feb. 13, 2021 Featherweight Ricky Simon Brian Kelleher Ricky Simon
Jan. 20, 2021 Bantamweight Ricky Simon Gaetano Pirrello Ricky Simon
May 13, 2020 Bantamweight Ricky Simon Ray Borg Ricky Simon
Dec. 7, 2019 Bantamweight Rob Font Ricky Simon Rob Font
July 13, 2019 Bantamweight Urijah Faber Ricky Simon Urijah Faber
Feb. 9, 2019 Bantamweight Rani Yahya Ricky Simon Ricky Simon
Aug. 4, 2018 Bantamweight Ricky Simon Montel Jackson Ricky Simon
April 21, 2018 Bantamweight Merab Dvalishvili Ricky Simon Ricky Simon
Mario Bautista History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 19, 2023 Bantamweight Da'Mon Blackshear Mario Bautista Mario Bautista
March 11, 2023 Bantamweight Mario Bautista Guido Cannetti Mario Bautista
Nov. 5, 2022 Bantamweight Mario Bautista Benito Lopez Mario Bautista
June 25, 2022 Bantamweight Brian Kelleher Mario Bautista Mario Bautista
Feb. 19, 2022 Bantamweight Mario Bautista Jay Perrin Mario Bautista
March 6, 2021 Bantamweight Mario Bautista Trevin Jones Trevin Jones
Feb. 8, 2020 Bantamweight Miles Johns Mario Bautista Mario Bautista
July 20, 2019 Bantamweight Mario Bautista Jin Soo Son Mario Bautista
Jan. 19, 2019 Bantamweight Cory Sandhagen Mario Bautista Cory Sandhagen