Phil Hawes vs. Brunno Ferreira - UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Brunno Ferreira by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 778.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Phil Hawes vs Brunno Ferreira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Phil Hawes to Win

Phil Hawes's Breakdown

Phil Hawes, known as "No Hype", has had a mixed bag of results in his recent UFC outings, with a UFC record of 12 wins and 5 losses. His latest performance against Ikram Aliskerov resulted in a loss by KO, demonstrating a vulnerability in his chin. Despite his explosive power and athleticism, Hawes has shown susceptibility to being knocked out, a factor that can't be overlooked. However, he's not just a one-dimensional fighter. His fight against Deron Winn showcased his ability to blend wrestling with striking, using his superior reach and diverse striking to maintain distance and control the bout.

Hawes's strengths lie in his wrestling skills and striking power, but he needs to be wary of his defensive lapses. His recent losses by KO suggest that he may be entering the Octagon with a somewhat diminished ability to absorb punishment. However, Hawes's victories, such as against Kyle Daukaus and Nassourdine Imavov, show his ability to strategically dominate fights, using his wrestling to dictate the pace and employing a mix of strikes to keep opponents at bay. Hawes's stats further underline his proficiency in striking and takedowns, indicating a well-rounded skill set essential for taking on the aggressive style of Brunno Ferreira.

Brunno Ferreira's Breakdown

Brunno "Robocop" Ferreira, with a UFC record of 10 wins and 1 loss, is known for his aggressive striking and power. His recent loss to Nursulton Ruziboev via KO showcased both his strength and weakness: while his powerful strikes are a significant threat, his aggressive style can leave him open to counters. This vulnerability was evident when he threw a low kick without proper setup, which was exploited by Ruziboev.

Ferreira's unorthodox switch-hitting style, as seen in his fight against Gregory Rodrigues, makes him unpredictable and dangerous. However, his striking accuracy and defense stats indicate a need for more discipline and strategic guard. His aggressive approach can be effective, but he must be careful not to overcommit and leave himself open to counters, especially against a fighter like Hawes who can exploit such openings with his wrestling and striking skills.

Analysis and Key Points

This matchup presents an intriguing contrast of styles: Hawes's wrestling and striking versatility versus Ferreira's aggressive, unorthodox striking. Hawes's recent losses due to KOs are concerning, especially against a heavy hitter like Ferreira. However, Hawes's ability to blend wrestling with striking could be key to controlling the aggressive Ferreira, who tends to leave openings when pressing forward.

Ferreira's aggressive style can be his biggest asset and his most significant liability. To secure a win, he'll need to temper his aggression with strategic planning, especially against a well-rounded fighter like Hawes.

Conclusion

Considering their fighting styles and recent performances, Hawes seems well-equipped to counter Ferreira's aggression with his wrestling and striking versatility. While Hawes needs to be wary of Ferreira's power, his ability to control the pace and distance of the fight, coupled with his striking and wrestling, gives him the edge. Ferreira's aggressive style and power make him a constant threat, but his tendency to overcommit could be his downfall in this matchup. Therefore, WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Phil Hawes as the winner seems well-founded, with his well-rounded skills likely to prevail over Ferreira's powerful but sometimes reckless striking approach.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Phil Hawes Brunno Ferreira
Main Stats
Age 35 31
Height 72" 70"
Reach 77" 72"
Win Percentage 70.59% 90.91%
Wins 12 11
Losses 6 1
Wins at Weight Class 4 1
Losses at Weight Class 3 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 68.41% 50.98%
Significant Striking Accuracy 61.44% 50.00%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 9.350 4.727
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.903 4.546
Knockdowns per Fight 0.594 2.727
Striking Impact Differential 32.57% -0.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 17.43% -1.00%
Striking Output Differential 30.00% 0.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential 12.29% 0.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 50.00% 88.46%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 74.83% 92.00%
Striking Defense Percentage 55.89% 46.00%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.297 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 2.377 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 5.348 5.455
Takedown Defense 100.00% 0.00%
Takedown Accuracy 44.44% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.843 2.727
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.151 6.727
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.496 3.818
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.525 0.364
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.842 0.727
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.733 0.909
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.535 1.455
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.614 1.636
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.258 0.182
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.812 0.182
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.050 0.182
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.733 0.364
Phil Hawes History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
May 6, 2023 Middleweight Phil Hawes Ikram Aliskerov Ikram Aliskerov
Oct. 29, 2022 Middleweight Phil Hawes Roman Dolidze Roman Dolidze
June 18, 2022 Middleweight Phil Hawes Deron Winn Phil Hawes
Nov. 6, 2021 Middleweight Phil Hawes Chris Curtis Chris Curtis
May 8, 2021 Middleweight Phil Hawes Kyle Daukaus Phil Hawes
Feb. 20, 2021 Middleweight Phil Hawes Nassourdine Imavov Phil Hawes
Oct. 24, 2020 Middleweight Jacob Malkoun Phil Hawes Phil Hawes
Brunno Ferreira History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 1, 2023 Middleweight Brunno Ferreira Nursulton Ruziboev Nursulton Ruziboev
Jan. 21, 2023 Middleweight Gregory Rodrigues Brunno Ferreira Brunno Ferreira