The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Basic Prediction
This prediction was made before July 20th, 2024 and does not include detailed insights.
Andrei Arlovski, a seasoned veteran in the heavyweight division, has shown resilience and adaptability throughout his career. With a background in kickboxing, he employs a strategic approach, often opting for decision victories. His recent KO/TKO loss to Don'Tale Mayes and a submission defeat to Marcos Rogerio de Lima signal potential vulnerabilities, especially considering his age and the wear from a long fighting career. Against Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa, Arlovski demonstrated his ability to leverage his boxing and kickboxing skills, successfully managing range and utilizing a solid jab and combinations. However, his tendency to rely on judges' scorecards and a diminished knockout power pose concerns against younger, more aggressive opponents.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta, a rising contender in the heavyweight division, displays significant striking prowess. His recent KO/TKO victory over Lukasz Brzeski showcases his power and ability to finish fights. However, his unanimous decision loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima reveals some gaps in his game, particularly his vulnerability to leg kicks and grappling. Against Chase Sherman, Cortes-Acosta demonstrated endurance and a high striking output, indicating his capacity to handle longer fights. His striking accuracy and volume, coupled with a solid takedown defense, make him a formidable opponent.
Arlovski's experience and technical striking contrast with Cortes-Acosta's power and aggression. Arlovski's ability to manage distance and pace could challenge Cortes-Acosta, who relies more on striking volume and power. However, Cortes-Acosta's youth and recent performance suggest he can withstand a prolonged bout and still deliver powerful strikes. Arlovski's recent losses by KO/TKO and submission raise concerns about his durability against a heavy hitter like Cortes-Acosta.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta's striking power, volume, and relative youth give him an edge over Andrei Arlovski. While Arlovski's experience and technical acumen are noteworthy, his recent performances indicate a potential decline, particularly in his ability to withstand heavy strikes. Cortes-Acosta's recent victory by KO/TKO and his overall aggressive style are likely to challenge Arlovski's defense and endurance, leading to a predicted win for Cortes-Acosta.
Stat | Andrei Arlovski | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 44 | 32 | 34 | |
Height | 75" | 76" | 75" | |
Reach | 77" | 78" | 78" | |
Win Percentage | 60.71% | 90.91% | 78.44% | |
Wins | 34 | 11 | ||
Losses | 23 | 1 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 20 | 3 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 15 | 1 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 49.06% | 50.78% | 52.82% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 44.94% | 50.24% | 47.47% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.608 | 6.789 | 5.795 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 3.824 | 6.602 | 4.310 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.395 | 0.312 | 0.590 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 0.90% | 25.75% | 8.25% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 5.25% | 30.50% | 6.30% | |
Striking Output Differential | 3.35% | 48.50% | 13.06% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 8.50% | 54.50% | 10.41% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 98.23% | 69.02% | 68.44% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 113.56% | 68.77% | 86.35% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 57.03% | 52.78% | 47.73% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.197 | 0.000 | 0.281 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 0.355 | 0.000 | 1.337 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 0.987 | 0.312 | 2.834 | |
Takedown Defense | 28.57% | 66.67% | 104.35% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 36.00% | 0.00% | 28.32% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.179 | 4.748 | 2.876 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 6.327 | 10.746 | 6.789 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.119 | 1.208 | 2.143 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.766 | 1.333 | 0.814 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.058 | 1.770 | 1.041 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.547 | 0.729 | 0.729 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.879 | 0.521 | 0.621 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 1.124 | 0.625 | 0.721 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.605 | 2.124 | 0.600 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.450 | 0.229 | 0.547 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.679 | 0.292 | 0.757 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.413 | 0.125 | 0.417 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 3, 2023 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Don'Tale Mayes | Don'Tale Mayes | |
Oct. 29, 2022 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | |
April 30, 2022 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Jake Collier | Andrei Arlovski | |
Feb. 12, 2022 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Jared Vanderaa | Andrei Arlovski | |
Oct. 16, 2021 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Carlos Felipe | Andrei Arlovski | |
April 17, 2021 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Chase Sherman | Andrei Arlovski | |
Feb. 20, 2021 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Tom Aspinall | Tom Aspinall | |
Nov. 7, 2020 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Tanner Boser | Andrei Arlovski | |
May 13, 2020 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Philipe Lins | Andrei Arlovski | |
Nov. 2, 2019 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | |
July 20, 2019 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Ben Rothwell | Andrei Arlovski | |
April 27, 2019 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Augusto Sakai | Augusto Sakai | |
Dec. 29, 2018 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Walt Harris | None | |
Sept. 15, 2018 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Shamil Abdurakhimov | Shamil Abdurakhimov | |
June 9, 2018 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Tai Tuivasa | Tai Tuivasa | |
March 3, 2018 | Heavyweight | Stefan Struve | Andrei Arlovski | Andrei Arlovski | |
Nov. 11, 2017 | Heavyweight | Junior Albini | Andrei Arlovski | Andrei Arlovski | |
June 17, 2017 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Marcin Tybura | Marcin Tybura | |
Jan. 28, 2017 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Francis Ngannou | Francis Ngannou | |
Sept. 3, 2016 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Josh Barnett | Josh Barnett | |
May 8, 2016 | Heavyweight | Alistair Overeem | Andrei Arlovski | Alistair Overeem | |
Jan. 2, 2016 | Heavyweight | Stipe Miocic | Andrei Arlovski | Stipe Miocic | |
Sept. 5, 2015 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Frank Mir | Andrei Arlovski | |
May 23, 2015 | Heavyweight | Travis Browne | Andrei Arlovski | Andrei Arlovski | |
Sept. 13, 2014 | Heavyweight | Antonio Silva | Andrei Arlovski | Andrei Arlovski | |
June 14, 2014 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Brendan Schaub | Andrei Arlovski | |
March 1, 2008 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Jake O'Brien | Andrei Arlovski | |
April 21, 2007 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Fabricio Werdum | Andrei Arlovski | |
Dec. 30, 2006 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Marcio Cruz | Andrei Arlovski | |
July 8, 2006 | UFC Heavyweight Title | Tim Sylvia | Andrei Arlovski | Tim Sylvia | |
April 15, 2006 | UFC Heavyweight Title | Tim Sylvia | Andrei Arlovski | Tim Sylvia | |
Oct. 7, 2005 | UFC Heavyweight Title | Andrei Arlovski | Paul Buentello | Andrei Arlovski | |
June 4, 2005 | UFC Interim Heavyweight Title | Andrei Arlovski | Justin Eilers | Andrei Arlovski | |
Feb. 5, 2005 | UFC Interim Heavyweight Title | Andrei Arlovski | Tim Sylvia | Andrei Arlovski | |
April 2, 2004 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Wesley Correira | Andrei Arlovski | |
Sept. 26, 2003 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Vladimir Matyushenko | Andrei Arlovski | |
Nov. 22, 2002 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Ian Freeman | Andrei Arlovski | |
March 22, 2002 | Heavyweight | Pedro Rizzo | Andrei Arlovski | Pedro Rizzo | |
June 29, 2001 | Heavyweight | Ricco Rodriguez | Andrei Arlovski | Ricco Rodriguez | |
Nov. 17, 2000 | Heavyweight | Andrei Arlovski | Aaron Brink | Andrei Arlovski |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aug. 26, 2023 | Heavyweight | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Lukasz Brzeski | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | |
April 29, 2023 | Heavyweight | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | |
Nov. 19, 2022 | Heavyweight | Chase Sherman | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | |
Oct. 29, 2022 | Heavyweight | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Jared Vanderaa | Waldo Cortes-Acosta |