Andrei Arlovski vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta - UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Waldo Cortes-Acosta by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 778.00m
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
Fighter
WolfTicketsAI
Profit
Plain
Odds When Predicted

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Andrei Arlovski vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Waldo Cortes-Acosta to Win

Andrei Arlovski's Breakdown

Andrei Arlovski, a seasoned veteran in the heavyweight division, has shown resilience and adaptability throughout his career. With a background in kickboxing, he employs a strategic approach, often opting for decision victories. His recent KO/TKO loss to Don'Tale Mayes and a submission defeat to Marcos Rogerio de Lima signal potential vulnerabilities, especially considering his age and the wear from a long fighting career. Against Jake Collier and Jared Vanderaa, Arlovski demonstrated his ability to leverage his boxing and kickboxing skills, successfully managing range and utilizing a solid jab and combinations. However, his tendency to rely on judges' scorecards and a diminished knockout power pose concerns against younger, more aggressive opponents.

Waldo Cortes-Acosta's Breakdown

Waldo Cortes-Acosta, a rising contender in the heavyweight division, displays significant striking prowess. His recent KO/TKO victory over Lukasz Brzeski showcases his power and ability to finish fights. However, his unanimous decision loss to Marcos Rogerio de Lima reveals some gaps in his game, particularly his vulnerability to leg kicks and grappling. Against Chase Sherman, Cortes-Acosta demonstrated endurance and a high striking output, indicating his capacity to handle longer fights. His striking accuracy and volume, coupled with a solid takedown defense, make him a formidable opponent.

Analysis and Key Points

Arlovski's experience and technical striking contrast with Cortes-Acosta's power and aggression. Arlovski's ability to manage distance and pace could challenge Cortes-Acosta, who relies more on striking volume and power. However, Cortes-Acosta's youth and recent performance suggest he can withstand a prolonged bout and still deliver powerful strikes. Arlovski's recent losses by KO/TKO and submission raise concerns about his durability against a heavy hitter like Cortes-Acosta.

Conclusion

Waldo Cortes-Acosta's striking power, volume, and relative youth give him an edge over Andrei Arlovski. While Arlovski's experience and technical acumen are noteworthy, his recent performances indicate a potential decline, particularly in his ability to withstand heavy strikes. Cortes-Acosta's recent victory by KO/TKO and his overall aggressive style are likely to challenge Arlovski's defense and endurance, leading to a predicted win for Cortes-Acosta.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Andrei Arlovski Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Main Stats
Age 44 32
Height 75" 76"
Reach 77" 78"
Win Percentage 60.71% 90.91%
Wins 34 11
Losses 23 1
Wins at Weight Class 20 3
Losses at Weight Class 15 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.06% 50.78%
Significant Striking Accuracy 44.94% 50.24%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.608 6.789
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.824 6.602
Knockdowns per Fight 0.395 0.312
Striking Impact Differential 0.90% 25.75%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 5.25% 30.50%
Striking Output Differential 3.35% 48.50%
Significant Striking Output Differential 8.50% 54.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 98.23% 69.02%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 113.56% 68.77%
Striking Defense Percentage 57.03% 52.78%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.197 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.355 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.987 0.312
Takedown Defense 28.57% 66.67%
Takedown Accuracy 36.00% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.179 4.748
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.327 10.746
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.119 1.208
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.766 1.333
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.058 1.770
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.547 0.729
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.879 0.521
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.124 0.625
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.605 2.124
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.450 0.229
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.679 0.292
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.413 0.125
Andrei Arlovski History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 3, 2023 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Don'Tale Mayes Don'Tale Mayes
Oct. 29, 2022 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcos Rogerio de Lima Marcos Rogerio de Lima
April 30, 2022 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jake Collier Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 12, 2022 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jared Vanderaa Andrei Arlovski
Oct. 16, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Carlos Felipe Andrei Arlovski
April 17, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Chase Sherman Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 20, 2021 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tom Aspinall Tom Aspinall
Nov. 7, 2020 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tanner Boser Andrei Arlovski
May 13, 2020 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Philipe Lins Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 2, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jairzinho Rozenstruik Jairzinho Rozenstruik
July 20, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Ben Rothwell Andrei Arlovski
April 27, 2019 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Augusto Sakai Augusto Sakai
Dec. 29, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Walt Harris None
Sept. 15, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Shamil Abdurakhimov Shamil Abdurakhimov
June 9, 2018 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Tai Tuivasa Tai Tuivasa
March 3, 2018 Heavyweight Stefan Struve Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 11, 2017 Heavyweight Junior Albini Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
June 17, 2017 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcin Tybura Marcin Tybura
Jan. 28, 2017 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Francis Ngannou Francis Ngannou
Sept. 3, 2016 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Josh Barnett Josh Barnett
May 8, 2016 Heavyweight Alistair Overeem Andrei Arlovski Alistair Overeem
Jan. 2, 2016 Heavyweight Stipe Miocic Andrei Arlovski Stipe Miocic
Sept. 5, 2015 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Frank Mir Andrei Arlovski
May 23, 2015 Heavyweight Travis Browne Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
Sept. 13, 2014 Heavyweight Antonio Silva Andrei Arlovski Andrei Arlovski
June 14, 2014 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Brendan Schaub Andrei Arlovski
March 1, 2008 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Jake O'Brien Andrei Arlovski
April 21, 2007 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Fabricio Werdum Andrei Arlovski
Dec. 30, 2006 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Marcio Cruz Andrei Arlovski
July 8, 2006 UFC Heavyweight Title Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia
April 15, 2006 UFC Heavyweight Title Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia
Oct. 7, 2005 UFC Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Paul Buentello Andrei Arlovski
June 4, 2005 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Justin Eilers Andrei Arlovski
Feb. 5, 2005 UFC Interim Heavyweight Title Andrei Arlovski Tim Sylvia Andrei Arlovski
April 2, 2004 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Wesley Correira Andrei Arlovski
Sept. 26, 2003 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Vladimir Matyushenko Andrei Arlovski
Nov. 22, 2002 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Ian Freeman Andrei Arlovski
March 22, 2002 Heavyweight Pedro Rizzo Andrei Arlovski Pedro Rizzo
June 29, 2001 Heavyweight Ricco Rodriguez Andrei Arlovski Ricco Rodriguez
Nov. 17, 2000 Heavyweight Andrei Arlovski Aaron Brink Andrei Arlovski
Waldo Cortes-Acosta History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 26, 2023 Heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta Lukasz Brzeski Waldo Cortes-Acosta
April 29, 2023 Heavyweight Marcos Rogerio de Lima Waldo Cortes-Acosta Marcos Rogerio de Lima
Nov. 19, 2022 Heavyweight Chase Sherman Waldo Cortes-Acosta Waldo Cortes-Acosta
Oct. 29, 2022 Heavyweight Waldo Cortes-Acosta Jared Vanderaa Waldo Cortes-Acosta