Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez - UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Ailin Perez by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 777.00m
Weight Class: Women's Bantamweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Lucie Pudilova
+165
Ailin Perez
15
5
17
8.5
-200

Weighted Scoring Report

Fight Analysis

UFC Fight Analysis: Lucie Pudilova vs Ailin Perez

Overview

In the upcoming Women's Bantamweight clash, WolfTicketsAI is backing Ailin Perez to triumph over Lucie Pudilova. Let's break down the stats and recent performances to understand why.

Lucie Pudilova: A Striker Facing a Downturn

Pudilova, with a record of 14-8, shows versatility with decent takedown numbers and striking. However, her recent UFC record is worrying, winning only 2 out of her last 6 fights, indicating a possible downward trend. She's shown resilience in stand-up fighting, evident from her head strikes stats, but her recent fights reveal a decline in effectiveness, especially with a loss by KO/TKO and several decision losses.

Her UFC history at both Bantamweight and Flyweight demonstrates adaptability, but also a lack of dominance in either class. Her striking defense and accuracy numbers aren't stellar, hinting at vulnerabilities that a well-rounded opponent could exploit.

Ailin Perez: Rising Contender with Strong Ground Game

Perez, holding an 8-2 record, is relatively new to the UFC with just two fights. This limited history might usually ring alarm bells, but her performance against Ashlee Evans-Smith shows promise. Her loss at Featherweight doesn't seem to have dented her confidence, returning to Bantamweight with a win.

Her standout stats are in takedowns, both attempted and completed, indicating a strong ground game. While her striking stats are less impressive, they're not negligible, especially her head strikes landed per minute. This balance of ground and stand-up skills could be pivotal against Pudilova.

Key Factors and Prediction

  1. Pudilova's Recent Struggles: Lucie's recent UFC performance, particularly the KO/TKO loss, raises concerns about her ability to handle powerful strikers or well-rounded fighters.
  2. Perez's Ground Dominance: Ailin's impressive takedown stats suggest she can control where the fight goes, a significant advantage in MMA.
  3. Experience vs Freshness: While Pudilova has more UFC experience, her recent record and Perez's strong showing in her limited UFC appearances tilt the scales.
  4. Weight Class Consistency: Perez seems more settled in the Bantamweight class, which could play a role in her performance.

Conclusion

Considering the dynamics, WolfTicketsAI's prediction leans towards Ailin Perez. Her ground game might be the deciding factor against Pudilova, who's currently struggling to find her form. Perez's takedown abilities could neutralize Pudilova's striking, paving the way for a Perez victory.

Stat Breakdown

Stat Lucie Pudilova Ailin Perez
Main Stats
Age 29 29
Height 68" 65"
Reach 67" 66"
Win Percentage 63.64% 80.00%
Wins 14 9
Losses 9 2
Wins at Weight Class 3 1
Losses at Weight Class 3 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 45.01% 66.93%
Significant Striking Accuracy 37.37% 55.07%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.731 6.747
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 3.970 3.052
Knockdowns per Fight 0.249 0.000
Striking Impact Differential 7.11% 54.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 0.22% 24.50%
Striking Output Differential 41.56% 69.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 32.11% 34.50%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 77.25% 31.55%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 107.53% 55.26%
Striking Defense Percentage 51.92% 60.87%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.623 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.623 6.627
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 2.243 10.843
Takedown Defense 58.33% 33.33%
Takedown Accuracy 27.78% 61.11%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.023 2.289
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 9.194 4.297
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.043 0.602
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.548 0.643
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.831 0.924
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.814 0.201
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.399 0.121
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.598 0.321
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 1.096 0.281
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.598 0.803
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.781 1.165
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.698 0.321
Lucie Pudilova History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
April 15, 2023 Women's Bantamweight Joselyne Edwards Lucie Pudilova Joselyne Edwards
Aug. 20, 2022 Women's Bantamweight Wu Yanan Lucie Pudilova Lucie Pudilova
Jan. 25, 2020 Women's Flyweight Justine Kish Lucie Pudilova Justine Kish
Aug. 3, 2019 Women's Flyweight Antonina Shevchenko Lucie Pudilova Antonina Shevchenko
Feb. 23, 2019 Women's Flyweight Liz Carmouche Lucie Pudilova Liz Carmouche
Sept. 8, 2018 Women's Bantamweight Irene Aldana Lucie Pudilova Irene Aldana
Feb. 18, 2018 Women's Bantamweight Sarah Moras Lucie Pudilova Lucie Pudilova
June 17, 2017 Women's Bantamweight Ji Yeon Kim Lucie Pudilova Lucie Pudilova
March 18, 2017 Women's Bantamweight Lina Lansberg Lucie Pudilova Lina Lansberg
Ailin Perez History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 15, 2023 Women's Bantamweight Ashlee Evans-Smith Ailin Perez Ailin Perez
Sept. 3, 2022 Women's Featherweight Stephanie Egger Ailin Perez Stephanie Egger