The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Shamil Gaziev
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Final Confidence: 18.36
Value: +20.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%
Value: -10.0%
Reason: Predicted winner lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 17
Odds:
Shamil Gaziev: -390
Thomas Petersen: 280
Gaziev, a powerhouse striker, shows a knack for overwhelming opponents with early aggression, as seen in his win over Martin Buday via TKO. His ability to maintain forward pressure and dominate the clinch was evident in his recent decision victory against Don'Tale Mayes. Yet, a glaring flaw is his cardio, which cost him against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. If he can't finish quickly, he risks getting countered by more strategic fighters.
Petersen, "The Train," is versatile, mixing wrestling with striking. He outlasted Mohammed Usman with smart pressure and controlled the fight pace, showcasing impressive striking defense. However, he struggled against Jamal Pogues, primarily due to issues with grappling defense and maintaining consistent offense under pressure.
WolfTicketsAI previously misjudged Gaziev against Rozenstruik but accurately predicted his victory over Mayes. It incorrectly called Petersen's bout with Usman, suggesting a slight predictive uncertainty.
Gaziev's aggressive style and ability to maintain overwhelming pressure are decisive factors against Petersen, who has struggled against similar threats. Expect Gaziev to use his reach and clinch work to close the fight before cardio issues arise. WolfTicketsAI confidently picks Shamil Gaziev to win.
| Stat | Shamil Gaziev | Thomas Petersen | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 34 | 29 | 34 | |
| Height | 76" | 73" | 75" | |
| Reach | 78" | 74" | 78" | |
| Win Percentage | 92.86% | 81.82% | 80.60% | |
| Wins | 14 | 9 | ||
| Losses | 1 | 3 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 2 | 1 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 1 | 1 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 58.09% | 67.51% | 51.47% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 48.11% | 59.82% | 45.96% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.300 | 7.133 | 5.454 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 2.492 | 4.467 | 3.926 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.812 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | -11.33% | 42.50% | 6.58% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | -20.00% | 3.00% | 4.60% | |
| Striking Output Differential | -16.00% | 3.50% | 8.56% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | -27.00% | -42.50% | 5.95% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 80.11% | 84.58% | 69.90% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 128.43% | 135.07% | 88.36% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 44.71% | 58.58% | 47.11% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.231 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 1.099 | 1.500 | 1.380 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 3.665 | 5.500 | 3.088 | |
| Takedown Defense | 100.00% | 100.00% | 95.07% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 30.00% | 27.27% | 27.51% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.783 | 2.800 | 2.690 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 4.275 | 5.567 | 6.193 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.541 | 2.900 | 1.978 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.660 | 1.433 | 0.739 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.855 | 1.667 | 0.951 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.855 | 1.133 | 0.709 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.049 | 0.233 | 0.497 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.049 | 0.233 | 0.568 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.562 | 0.233 | 0.567 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.586 | 0.233 | 0.400 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.806 | 0.267 | 0.575 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.147 | 0.367 | 0.349 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 3, 2024 | Heavyweight | Shamil Gaziev | Don'Tale Mayes | Shamil Gaziev | |
| March 2, 2024 | Heavyweight | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | Shamil Gaziev | Jairzinho Rozenstruik | |
| Dec. 16, 2023 | Heavyweight | Martin Buday | Shamil Gaziev | Shamil Gaziev |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 20, 2024 | Heavyweight | Mohammed Usman | Thomas Petersen | Thomas Petersen | |
| Feb. 3, 2024 | Heavyweight | Thomas Petersen | Jamal Pogues | Jamal Pogues |