Analysis: Rafael Fiziev vs Mauricio Ruffy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rafael Fiziev to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Rafael Fiziev: 105
Mauricio Ruffy: -125

Rafael Fiziev's Breakdown

Fiziev is one of the most technically polished Muay Thai strikers in the lightweight division. His Tiger Muay Thai pedigree shows in everything he does. The switch kick to body and head from orthodox stance remains his bread and butter. Against Bahamondes in June 2025, he demonstrated exactly why he's dangerous. He timed a calf kick perfectly as Bahamondes switched back to orthodox, catching him mid-transition. That level of read is rare.

His clinch work separates him from most strikers. Against RDA, he threw elbows on breaks that kept the Brazilian from exiting safely. Those clinch knees to the body against Bobby Green accumulated damage that showed by round three. When opponents close distance, they're walking into his wheelhouse.

The counter right hand has become a signature weapon. He dropped Bahamondes with it at the horn in round two. Against Gaethje in their rematch, he tried to exploit Justin's head-dip pattern with stepping left knees and uppercuts. He reads habits and punishes them.

His takedown defense sits at 90%, tied for fourth all-time among lightweights. Against RDA, he stuffed shot after shot using superior base and underhook battles. When Gamrot took him down, he immediately scrambled to turtle and built back up. He's not staying on bottom.

Recent evolution shows improved wrestling integration. Against Bahamondes, he secured multiple takedowns when striking exchanges got even. He's no longer just a pure striker. He's a complete fighter who can choose where the fight happens.

Rafael Fiziev's Technical Vulnerabilities

Predictable Stance Switching Pattern: Against Gamrot, Fiziev consistently switched stances by pulling his left foot back and circling left. He never varied direction. Gamrot timed right hands repeatedly because of this one-directional movement. When Fiziev stepped into southpaw against Gamrot, he ate a right straight immediately because his guard lagged during the transition.

Susceptibility to Long Jabs: Gaethje's springing jab kept Fiziev at distance in both fights. When opponents can establish range with educated jabs, Fiziev struggles to close to his preferred clinch range. His combination output gets suppressed by the power threat.

Cardio Questions in Later Rounds: Against Bobby Green, his output dropped noticeably in round three. Green surged back and landed his best shots of the fight. Against RDA over five rounds, his fence escapes became harder as the fight progressed. The accumulated effort of defending takedowns wears on him.

Mauricio Ruffy's Breakdown

Ruffy is a knockout artist with 10 finishes in 10 wins before going the distance against Llontop. His hand fighting skills are sophisticated. Against Bobby Green, he backhanded jabs against Green's lead hand, then whipped his hand around like a loose left hook to strip the guard down before throwing his right. That's fencing-level manipulation.

The left hook to wheel kick combination ended Green's night at UFC 313. He threw a long, slappy left hand that made Green lean back. But Ruffy's length meant Green was still in range for the wheel kick. The heel connected flush. Green face planted. That combination requires specific defensive reactions to land, and Ruffy knows how to create them.

His striking accuracy sits at 58%, and he targets the head with 79% of his significant strikes. He's looking for the knockout, not points. Against Llontop, he showed creative techniques including look-away punches and tornado kicks. He fights with confidence bordering on showmanship.

At 75 inches, he holds a 4-inch reach advantage over Fiziev. That length matters for establishing his jab and keeping opponents at his preferred range. His recent striking output differential shows he's not a volume fighter. He picks his shots.

Mauricio Ruffy's Technical Vulnerabilities

Hesitancy Against Grappling Threats: Against Benoit Saint Denis, Ruffy looked tentative any time they got back to the feet. The wrestling threat froze his offense. He self-limited his kicking game because throwing kicks created vulnerability to leg catches or level changes. BSD submitted him in round two.

Guard Passing Defense: When BSD took Ruffy down into butterfly guard, he attempted standard elbow-knee connection defense. BSD simply pushed his bicep down and stepped over the arm. Ruffy couldn't prevent the pass to back control. His ground game has holes.

Inability to Finish Durable Opponents: Against Llontop, Ruffy hurt him multiple times and scored a knockdown but couldn't close the show. He backed off after hurting his opponent rather than swarming. Against higher-level competition, that hesitation could cost him.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Fiziev's counter-striking could exploit Ruffy's tendency to throw long, committed punches. When Ruffy throws that slappy left hand to set up the wheel kick, he's creating exactly the kind of pattern Fiziev reads and punishes. Fiziev's right hand counter has dropped multiple opponents in similar situations.

Ruffy's reach advantage matters, but Fiziev has beaten longer fighters before. Against Bahamondes (6'3"), he used head movement and lateral footwork to close distance. His Muay Thai back lean evades high kicks while keeping his feet underneath him. Ruffy's wheel kick setup might find empty air.

Fiziev's clinch work could neutralize Ruffy's length. Once inside, Fiziev's knees and elbows are devastating. Ruffy has shown no particular aptitude for clinch fighting. If Fiziev can close the gap, he enters his best range while taking Ruffy out of his.

The wrestling dynamic favors Fiziev. He's shown willingness to mix in takedowns when striking gets even. Ruffy froze against BSD's wrestling threat. Even the threat of a takedown could suppress Ruffy's output the way it did against Saint Denis.

Ruffy's power is real, but Fiziev has absorbed big shots before. He took Gaethje's best punches twice. He survived Green's late rally. His chin has held up against elite power.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Fiziev to test Ruffy's reactions with feints and low kicks. He'll want to establish his calf kick game early. Ruffy will look to find range with his jab and set up that left hook. The first few minutes will be a chess match of distance management.

Mid-Fight: If Fiziev can't land clean counters, he'll likely mix in wrestling. Even failed takedown attempts will make Ruffy think twice about committing to kicks. Fiziev's body attack will accumulate. Against Green, his body work showed by round three. Ruffy's output could drop if he's worried about level changes.

Late Rounds: Fiziev's cardio concerns are real, but Ruffy hasn't shown championship-round experience. His only three-round fight went to decision against Llontop. If this goes deep, Fiziev's experience advantage matters. He's been in five-round wars. Ruffy hasn't.

Analysis and Key Points

• Fiziev's counter right hand could time Ruffy's long left hook setups. He dropped Bahamondes with it. He hurt Green with it. Ruffy's committed punches create counter opportunities.

• Ruffy's reach advantage is significant but not insurmountable. Fiziev beat the 6'3" Bahamondes by using head movement and closing distance. His clinch work negates length.

• The wrestling threat could freeze Ruffy's offense. He looked tentative against BSD when facing grappling danger. Fiziev doesn't need to complete takedowns. The threat alone might be enough.

• Fiziev's body attack accumulates over time. Against Green, his kicks to the body showed by round three. Ruffy absorbed body shots against Llontop. Three rounds of Fiziev's body kicks is a different proposition.

• Warning: Fiziev lost by KO/TKO to Gamrot when his knee exploded. Injuries can recur. He's also lost 3 of his last 5 UFC fights, though against elite competition (Gaethje twice, Gamrot).

• Warning: Ruffy lost his most recent fight by submission to BSD. His grappling defense has been exposed.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Fiziev comes from several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 3.0. Fiziev is the underdog at +105, and the model sees value there.

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 2.0. Fiziev's recent striking has been more impactful relative to what he absorbs.

• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0. Fiziev's defense has improved in recent fights.

• Striking Impact Differential and Significant Striking Impact Differential both contributed positively. Fiziev lands with more impact than he absorbs.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0. Fiziev's 33% recent win rate is concerning. But those losses came against Gaethje and Gamrot. Elite competition.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 1.0. Fiziev's wrestling integration adds another dimension.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Fiziev predictions. The model picked him against Gaethje twice and Gamrot. All three predictions were wrong. The only correct Fiziev prediction was his KO of RDA. That's 1-4 on Fiziev fights.

For Ruffy, the model is 2-1. It correctly picked him against Green and Llontop but missed on the BSD fight.

This creates an interesting dynamic. The model has been wrong about Fiziev more often than right. But those losses came against elite grapplers and power punchers. Ruffy is neither. He's a striker who freezes against wrestling threats. That's Fiziev's path to victory.

Conclusion

Fiziev's technical striking, clinch work, and wrestling threat create problems Ruffy hasn't solved. The Brazilian froze against BSD's grappling. Fiziev doesn't need to be BSD. He just needs to make Ruffy think about takedowns. That hesitation opens counter opportunities.

Ruffy's power is real, and his reach matters. But Fiziev has faced longer, more powerful opponents. He's been in wars. Ruffy's deepest water was a decision against Llontop.

WolfTicketsAI picks Rafael Fiziev. The underdog value at +105 is there. His technical advantages in the clinch and his ability to mix wrestling should suppress Ruffy's output. This is a fight where experience and technical depth matter more than raw power.