Analysis: Kaan Ofli vs Yizha

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Yizha to Win

Score: 13
Odds:
Kaan Ofli: +168
Yizha: -193

Kaan Ofli's Breakdown

Ofli comes into this fight with a 1-2 record in his last three UFC bouts. His most recent win came against Ricardo Ramos via submission, where he worked his way to the back and secured a choke finish. That victory showed his ability to grind opponents down and hunt for the rear naked choke when he gets to dominant positions.

Signature Techniques:

1. Back Control to Choke Sequences - Against Ramos, Ofli demonstrated his ability to secure rear body locks and transition to choking submissions. Once he gets to the back, he's dangerous.

2. Cage Wrestling - Ofli uses the fence extensively to maintain positions and work for takedowns. He presses opponents against the cage and looks to secure underhooks before shooting.

3. Clinch Elbows - When working in close quarters, Ofli throws elbows from the clinch, adding damage while grinding.

Technical Evolution:

Ofli's recent fights show a fighter heavily reliant on grappling. His takedown accuracy sits at just 14.3%, and his recent numbers drop even lower to 4.4%. He's shooting a lot but not converting. Against Naimov, he lost a unanimous decision, and the model correctly predicted that loss. His striking output is negative across the board, landing fewer significant strikes than he absorbs.

Kaan Ofli's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Striking Defense When Takedowns Fail - Against Mairon Santos, Ofli got brutally knocked out by an overhand right after his wrestling was stuffed. Santos defended multiple takedowns, forcing Ofli to stand and trade. He got slumped and took follow-up shots while on his knees. This was one of the more graphic KOs in recent memory.

2. Low Takedown Conversion Rate - Ofli shoots frequently but rarely finishes. His 4.4% recent takedown accuracy means opponents can stuff his entries and make him pay on the feet.

3. Recovery When Hurt - Once Santos dropped him, Ofli showed no ability to recover or defend follow-up strikes. He went from standing to finished in seconds.

Warning: Ofli was knocked out by Santos in August 2024. Given his continued reliance on wrestling that opponents can defend, he remains vulnerable to the same fate.

Yizha's Breakdown

Yizha bounced back from a loss to Gabriel Santos with a first-round KO of Westin Wilson in August 2025. That finish showed his striking power and ability to end fights early. He carries knockout ability with nearly one knockdown per fight in his UFC stats.

Signature Techniques:

1. Power Right Hand - In his Road to UFC final against JeongYeong Lee, Yizha landed the biggest shot of the fight, a huge right hand that snapped Lee's head back. He has seven career KO wins and clearly carries pop.

2. Double-Leg Takedowns - Yizha landed five takedowns against Lee, showing persistent wrestling. He shoots high volume, attempting over 12 takedowns per fight on average.

3. Back Control Pursuit - After securing takedowns, Yizha consistently looks to take the back. Against Lee, he secured a rear body lock in round one and jumped on his back in round two. With 13 career submission wins, he's dangerous when he gets there.

Technical Evolution:

Yizha's recent win over Wilson showed improved finishing ability on the feet. His striking accuracy remains solid at 46%, and he's landing more head strikes per minute than Ofli. The KO win suggests he's becoming more comfortable letting his hands go rather than defaulting purely to wrestling.

Yizha's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Inability to Damage from Top Position - Against Lee, despite landing five takedowns, Yizha failed to inflict significant damage or advance to finishing positions. Two judges scored against him despite his wrestling control. His ground-and-pound needs work.

2. Striking Defense - Yizha's striking defense percentage sits at just 31.5%, and his recent significant striking defense is around 42%. He absorbs shots, particularly in the clinch. Lee cracked him with a knee on the exit and had him in trouble with combinations in round three.

3. Position Maintenance - Lee repeatedly worked back to his feet after being taken down. Yizha struggles to hold opponents down against quality defensive wrestling.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight pits two grappling-heavy fighters against each other, but Yizha holds clear advantages in multiple areas.

Yizha's Techniques vs Ofli's Gaps: - Yizha's power right hand could exploit Ofli's poor striking defense. Ofli got starched by Santos' overhand, and Yizha carries similar power. - Yizha's higher takedown volume (12+ attempts per fight vs Ofli's 4+) means he'll likely win the wrestling exchanges through sheer persistence. - Yizha's knockout ability is a direct threat given Ofli's recent KO loss.

Ofli's Techniques vs Yizha's Gaps: - Ofli's back control and choke finishing could threaten Yizha if he gets to dominant positions. - Ofli's clinch elbows could score against Yizha's porous striking defense. - However, Ofli's low takedown conversion rate (4.4% recently) makes it unlikely he'll consistently get Yizha down.

The historical parallel here is clear: fighters who can stuff Ofli's takedowns and make him stand tend to hurt him badly. Yizha has the wrestling to neutralize Ofli's grappling and the power to punish him on the feet.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect both fighters to shoot early. Yizha's higher volume and better conversion rate should allow him to establish control. If Ofli's takedowns get stuffed early, he'll be forced into striking exchanges where Yizha's power becomes the deciding factor.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Ofli can't get the fight to the ground by round two, his options narrow significantly. Yizha showed against Wilson he can end fights quickly once he finds his range. Ofli's negative striking differentials suggest he'll fall behind on the scorecards if this stays standing.

Late Rounds: Ofli's recent striking defense percentage dropped to 49.8%, and his cardio concerns compound as fights progress. Yizha's pressure and volume should wear on Ofli, creating openings for power shots or takedowns.

Analysis and Key Points

• Ofli was KO'd by Santos after his wrestling was neutralized. Yizha has the wrestling to stuff takedowns and the power to punish failed attempts.
• Yizha's 5-inch reach advantage (71" vs 66") allows him to control distance and land first.
• Both fighters have 33% recent win percentages, but Yizha's most recent performance was a first-round KO, while Ofli's was a submission win that relied heavily on questionable tactics (multiple cage grabs against Ramos).
• Ofli's takedown accuracy is abysmal at 4.4% recently. Against a fighter like Yizha who shoots 14+ takedowns per fight, Ofli won't win the wrestling battle.
• Yizha carries knockout power with nearly one knockdown per fight. Ofli has zero knockdowns in his UFC career.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Yizha stems from several key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 11 points, reflecting that Yizha is the betting favorite. The model accounts for this but still favors him.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 6 points. Yizha's high-volume wrestling approach carries risk, but his conversion rate is better than Ofli's.
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 4 points. Despite Yizha's defensive gaps, Ofli's striking defense is worse.
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 3 points. Both fighters are 1-2 recently, but the model weighs other factors.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage added 2 points in Yizha's favor.
• Reach decreased the score by 1 point for Ofli, but Yizha's 5-inch advantage is significant.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with Ofli. The model correctly predicted Naimov would beat him but incorrectly picked Ramos to win when Ofli submitted him. That Ramos fight was close in the model's view (0.62 confidence), suggesting Ofli can pull upsets against grappling-heavy opponents.

For Yizha, the model correctly predicted his KO win over Wilson with high confidence (0.79). That's a strong vote of confidence in Yizha's finishing ability.

The model has been right more often than not with these fighters, and its confidence in Yizha aligns with the stylistic matchup.

Conclusion

Yizha presents a nightmare matchup for Ofli. He has the wrestling to neutralize Ofli's grappling, the power to punish him on the feet, and a 5-inch reach advantage to control distance. Ofli's recent KO loss to Santos showed what happens when his takedowns get stuffed, and Yizha has the tools to make that happen again. WolfTicketsAI picks Yizha to win, and the path to victory is clear: stuff the takedowns, land the right hand, and finish the fight.