Analysis: Jacob Malkoun vs Torrez Finney

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jacob Malkoun to Win

Score: 12
Odds:
Jacob Malkoun: -145
Torrez Finney: +125

Jacob Malkoun's Breakdown

Malkoun is a grappling-heavy middleweight who trains alongside Robert Whittaker at Gracie Jiu-Jitsu Smeaton Grange. He holds ADCC Asia Trials and Pan Pacific grappling credentials. His UFC record sits at 4-3, with his most recent win coming via second-round TKO over Andre Petroski at UFC Atlantic City in March 2024.

Signature Techniques:

1. Counter Jab and 1-2 Combinations: Against Petroski, Malkoun repeatedly timed his opponent's entries with sharp counter jabs. He buzzed Petroski badly in the first minute of round one with a series of jabs, showing improved boxing fundamentals from his Whittaker camp work.

2. Head Outside Single to Inside Trip: In his fight against Nick Maximov, Malkoun displayed a creative takedown finish. Rather than running the pipe on a head outside single, he pivoted to get Maximov stepping around, then cut out the back leg with an inside trip. This technique mirrors what Daniel Cormier used to do.

3. Sprawl with Crossface: Against Petroski in round two, Malkoun defended a single-leg attempt with a hip thrust and heavy crossface. He stated post-fight: "I thrust my hips in, big cross-face. Maybe that hurt him." This defensive wrestling led directly to the finish.

Technical Evolution:

Malkoun has shown clear improvement in his boxing since his 18-second knockout loss to Phil Hawes in his UFC debut. The Petroski fight demonstrated he can now work behind his jab, use check hooks, and pressure opponents to the cage with combinations. His killer instinct has also improved. When Petroski stumbled after the failed takedown, Malkoun immediately swarmed with a body kick and hammerfists rather than hesitating.

Jacob Malkoun's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Susceptibility to Power Punches: Malkoun got dropped by a straight left from Petroski in round one. Against Maximov, he was stunned by a dipping left hook from a fighter known primarily as a grappler. His chin has been tested multiple times, and his UFC debut ended in 18 seconds when Hawes landed a right hand to his temple.

2. Historical Takedown Defense Issues: His career takedown defense percentage has been a concern. Against Petroski, he was briefly taken down late in round one. While he has improved, elite wrestlers could still exploit this gap.

3. Failure to Capitalize on Hurt Opponents: In round one against Petroski, Malkoun stunned him badly with jabs but did not follow up aggressively. He missed an early finish opportunity that could have ended the fight sooner.

Torrez Finney's Breakdown

Finney enters this fight with an 11-0 professional record but only one UFC appearance. He won a split decision over Robert Valentin at UFC Vegas 106 in April 2025. That fight revealed a one-dimensional approach that drew criticism from analysts.

Signature Techniques:

1. Level Change Takedowns: Finney uses his shorter stature to duck underneath strikes and secure takedowns. Against Valentin, he took him down repeatedly throughout the fight by timing level changes against straight punches.

2. Positional Control: Once on top, Finney prioritizes maintaining position. He held Valentin down for extended periods, though he threw almost no strikes from top position.

Technical Evolution:

With only one UFC fight, there is limited data to assess evolution. The Valentin fight showed a wrestler who can get opponents down but has no finishing instinct. His striking output was essentially zero. Analysts noted he "didn't throw a single strike" while holding top position.

Torrez Finney's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Zero Striking Threat: Finney landed just 0.27 significant strikes per minute against Valentin. His head strikes landed per minute sits at 0.13. Opponents can stand in front of him without fear of getting hit.

2. No Finishing Ability: Despite achieving dominant positions repeatedly, Finney showed no ability or willingness to finish. He attempted no submissions and threw minimal ground strikes. One analyst stated: "I hope Torres Finney gets cut even though he won."

3. Negative Striking Differentials: His significant striking impact differential is -19, and his average striking output differential is -91. These numbers indicate he absorbs far more damage than he dishes out when the fight stays standing.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a clear technical puzzle. Finney's entire gameplan revolves around takedowns and control. Malkoun is himself a credentialed grappler with ADCC experience who has shown he can defend takedowns and work from bottom position.

Malkoun's improved boxing creates problems for Finney. Against Valentin, Finney exploited an opponent throwing predictable straight punches without accounting for level changes. Malkoun has shown better defensive awareness and can time counter shots when opponents shoot. His crossface defense against Petroski demonstrates he knows how to punish level changes.

If Finney does get Malkoun down, he faces a dangerous guard. Malkoun has threatened multiple guillotines and anaconda chokes in his UFC career. Against Alhassan, he locked up tight submissions repeatedly. Finney's lack of ground-and-pound means Malkoun can work for sweeps and submissions without eating damage.

The striking exchanges heavily favor Malkoun. Finney has shown nothing on the feet. Malkoun's counter jabs and 1-2 combinations should find a home against an opponent with no striking defense to speak of.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Finney to shoot immediately, as he did against Valentin. Malkoun should be prepared for this and can use his sprawl and crossface to punish early attempts. If Malkoun stuffs the first few takedowns, Finney has no Plan B.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Finney secures takedowns, Malkoun has shown he can get back to his feet and reset. Against Alhassan, he popped right back up after being taken down. Finney's lack of offensive output from top position means Malkoun can work without urgency.

Late Rounds: Cardio should favor Malkoun. Whittaker has praised his "ridiculous cardio" from training. Finney's wrestling-heavy approach is energy-intensive, and if takedowns stop working, he has nothing to fall back on.

Analysis and Key Points

• Malkoun's striking advantage is massive. Finney landed 0.27 significant strikes per minute in his UFC debut. Malkoun landed 4.2 significant strikes per minute in his recent fights.
• Grappling credentials favor Malkoun. ADCC trials winner versus a wrestler with no submission threat. Malkoun has threatened multiple chokes in his UFC career.
• Finney's one-dimensional approach is exploitable. Against Valentin, he won a split decision despite doing almost no damage. Malkoun is a significant step up in competition.
• Malkoun has been knocked out before. His debut loss to Hawes came in 18 seconds. But Finney has shown zero knockout power or striking ability.
• Limited data on Finney creates uncertainty. One UFC fight is not enough to fully assess his ceiling. This is a heuristic warning.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Malkoun primarily due to striking differentials:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 6.0. Malkoun's +13.9 versus Finney's -19.0 represents a massive gap.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential added 3.0. Malkoun's recent output has been strong.
• Striking Impact Differential contributed 3.0. Malkoun lands more and absorbs less.
• Striking Defense Percentage added 3.0. Malkoun defends 43% of strikes versus Finney's 26%.
• Odds added 2.0. The betting market agrees Malkoun should win.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight added 1.0. Both fighters attempt takedowns, but Malkoun has shown he can defend and counter.

The model was slightly tempered by: - Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0. Finney is undefeated while Malkoun has recent losses. - TrueSkill decreased by 1.0. Finney's unblemished record gives him a slight edge in the skill rating system.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has predicted Malkoun four times: - Correctly picked him to beat Petroski (0.65 confidence) - Incorrectly picked him to beat Brundage (0.82 confidence), though Malkoun was winning before the DQ - Correctly picked him to beat Maximov (0.33 confidence) - Correctly picked against him versus Brendan Allen (0.70 confidence)

The model has a 3-1 record on Malkoun fights. The Brundage loss was a DQ where Malkoun was dominating, so the model's read on that fight was arguably correct.

WolfTicketsAI has never predicted a Finney fight. This is his second UFC appearance, so there is limited data. This uncertainty is a minor risk factor.

Conclusion

Malkoun should handle Finney's wrestling-heavy approach. He has the grappling credentials to defend takedowns, the submission threat to make Finney pay for lazy top control, and the striking to punish a fighter with no hands. Finney's split decision win over Valentin exposed a one-dimensional fighter who cannot finish opponents. Malkoun represents a significant step up in competition. WolfTicketsAI has Malkoun winning this middleweight bout.