Analysis: Dan Hooker vs Benoit Saint Denis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Benoit Saint Denis to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Dan Hooker: +285
Benoit Saint Denis: -350

Dan Hooker's Breakdown

Dan Hooker is a veteran lightweight with a deep UFC resume who fights out of City Kickboxing in Auckland. His game revolves around range management, calf kicks, and a dangerous guillotine choke that earned him the "Hangman" nickname. Against Mateusz Gamrot, Hooker showed his front kick to the body could control distance early, landing five or six clean shots before Gamrot started catching them to set up takedowns. His high-elbow guillotine remains a constant threat. When Gamrot shot head-outside singles, Hooker punched through deep enough to get the crook of his elbow on Gamrot's throat, forcing gator rolls just to escape.

Hooker's jab-dip-left hook-right straight combination has produced key moments throughout his career. Against Jalin Turner, he used this exact sequence to stun the taller fighter and take his back for a near-finish. His clinch knees are vicious. He hurt Arman Tsarukyan with knees in their recent fight and has finished fighters like Ross Pearson and Jim Miller with devastating knee strikes up the middle.

The problem is Hooker's recent trajectory. He lost to Tsarukyan by arm-triangle choke after repeatedly attempting guillotines that put him in worse positions. Renato Moicano pointed out this was a "terrible mistake" since even Charles Oliveira couldn't finish Tsarukyan with that choke. Hooker admitted he "forgot" about this detail. At 35, his best years are behind him. He's 4-4 in his last eight UFC fights.

Dan Hooker's Technical Vulnerabilities

Grappling Control Against Elite Wrestlers: Once taken down by Tsarukyan, Hooker had "no answers" and was systematically broken down. He accumulated over six minutes of control time against him before the finish. When Makhachev took him down at UFC 267, Hooker was submitted in under three minutes. His bottom game lacks the escapes needed against top-tier grapplers.

Tactical Decision Making Under Pressure: Hooker repeatedly attempts guillotines that backfire against elite grapplers. Against Tsarukyan, his guillotine attempts allowed position reversals. Moicano noted that instead of taking the back from the position, Hooker "let it go, lost the scramble." This pattern has cost him multiple fights.

Cardio in Championship Rounds: Against Dustin Poirier, Hooker won the first two rounds but faded badly in rounds three through five, losing all three on every scorecard. He was "exhausted" and "sucking wind" by the final frame. His output drops significantly when fights extend past the midpoint.

Benoit Saint Denis's Breakdown

Benoit Saint Denis is a 29-year-old French fighter with a 100% finish rate on his wins. All 16 of his victories have come by knockout or submission. He fights from a southpaw stance and builds his entire offense around his left high kick. Against orthodox opponents, his rear leg targets the open side with devastating power. Matt Frevola learned this at UFC 295 when he circled away from a clinch with his hands down and ate a head kick that ended the fight in 91 seconds.

Saint Denis uses the high kick threat to set up his left straight and wrestling entries. Against Mauricio Ruffy, he threw high kicks onto Ruffy's arms, lifting him out of stance and making him reluctant to punch. This created opportunities to shoot or step in with the left hand. His body lock from the knees is a physical weapon. When Ruffy sprawled on his initial shot, Saint Denis came up on the body lock from his knees and ran him into the fence through pure strength.

His grappling has an unorthodox quality. Against Ruffy, he passed butterfly guard by pushing down the bicep and stepping over the arm rather than fighting the standard elbow-knee connection. He accepted the sweep risk, grabbed the head and underhook, and floated over the guard. His finishing instinct is elite. Against Beneil Dariush at UFC 322, he was briefly dropped by a calf kick but recovered instantly and knocked Dariush out cold with a left hook in just 16 seconds.

Benoit Saint Denis's Technical Vulnerabilities

Open Side Counter Susceptibility: Saint Denis consistently gets caught with the right hand over his left straight when pressing opponents to the fence. Against Thiago Moises, his corner was "going mad" between rounds asking why he kept letting Moises hit him. This happened "four or five times in the first round alone" against Poirier. He lacks head movement when throwing his power hand.

Limited Standing Offensive Variety: His entire standing game is built around the left leg kick. When Moicano parried his kick across his body in round one, Saint Denis didn't throw another kick until 30 seconds remained in round two. He was forced to abandon his primary weapon and had no effective backup plan.

Vulnerability Against Elite Traditional Grapplers: Despite his natural grappling instincts, Moicano "completely overwhelmed" him with more refined technique. Moicano used head posting under the jaw, bicep ties to deny grips, and floating pressure to neutralize Saint Denis's butterfly and half guard escapes. His strength-dependent grappling burns energy rapidly.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Hooker's front kick and calf kick game could disrupt Saint Denis's entries early. Against Gamrot, Hooker's front kicks worked until they started getting caught. Saint Denis has shown vulnerability to calf kicks, getting knocked off-balance multiple times in his UFC debut. If Hooker can establish his kicking game without getting his legs caught, he creates problems.

But Saint Denis's southpaw left kick targets Hooker's open side. Hooker has historically struggled against elite kickers. Edson Barboza destroyed him with leg kicks and body attacks, landing 36 of 43 body strikes. Saint Denis throws his left kick "as hard as he can at their body or their head" to establish respect. Once opponents start flinching, he chains into left straights and wrestling entries.

The grappling dynamic favors Saint Denis. Hooker's guillotine attempts have backfired against elite grapplers, and Saint Denis has shown the ability to escape dangerous positions through scrambling and athleticism. Saint Denis averages 4.3 takedowns per fight with 11.4 attempts. Hooker's takedown defense ratio sits at just 29.7%.

Hooker's path to victory runs through his counter-striking and clinch knees. If Saint Denis rushes in recklessly like Dariush did, Hooker has the timing to catch him. But Saint Denis's recent performances under Nicolas Ott show a more measured approach while maintaining his pressure.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Saint Denis will likely test Hooker's reactions with high kicks immediately. If Hooker can check kicks and land his jab, he establishes range. But Saint Denis's pressure and wrestling threat make it difficult for Hooker to stay at his preferred distance. Expect Saint Denis to push for clinch entries and cage work.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Hooker survives the early storm, his experience becomes valuable. He's shown the ability to adjust between rounds. Against Gamrot, he improved his takedown defense and hip movement in round two. But Saint Denis's cardio and finishing instinct have proven relentless. His three consecutive finishes in 2025 came against opponents who couldn't weather his pressure.

Championship Rounds: Hooker's cardio concerns are real. He faded badly against Poirier and was "exhausted" by round five. Saint Denis's energy expenditure through strength-based grappling could also be a factor, but his recent fights haven't gone long enough to test this. If this fight extends, both fighters face questions about their gas tanks.

Analysis and Key Points

• Saint Denis's left high kick is his primary weapon and targets Hooker's open side. Hooker was brutalized by Barboza's kicking game and could face similar problems here.

• Hooker's guillotine is a double-edged sword. His tendency to jump on guillotines against elite grapplers has cost him fights. Saint Denis has shown scrambling ability to escape dangerous positions.

• Takedown defense is a major concern for Hooker. His 29.7% takedown defense ratio against Saint Denis's 4.3 takedowns per fight creates a clear path to victory for the Frenchman.

• Counter-striking opportunity exists for Hooker. Saint Denis gets hit with the right hand over his left straight repeatedly. Hooker's timing and clinch knees could capitalize if Saint Denis rushes in.

• Age and wear favor Saint Denis. Hooker is 35 with significant damage accumulation. Saint Denis is 29 and riding momentum from three consecutive finishes.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 22 reflects a close fight with Saint Denis as the slight favorite. Key features influencing this prediction:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 17.0, reflecting the betting market's strong lean toward Saint Denis
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 3.0, though Saint Denis's wrestling volume remains a threat
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0, with Hooker's 67% recent win rate trailing Saint Denis's perfect 2025 record
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0, favoring Saint Denis's ability to avoid damage
• Win Streak Difference increased the score by 1.0, reflecting Saint Denis's three-fight finishing streak
• Reach increased the score by 1.0, with Hooker's 75-inch reach providing a two-inch advantage

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. The model correctly predicted Hooker's loss to Tsarukyan but incorrectly picked Gamrot and Turner to beat Hooker. It correctly predicted Hooker's wins over Claudio Puelles and correctly identified Arnold Allen would beat him.

For Saint Denis, the model correctly predicted his wins over Dariush, Prepolec, Moises, and Stolze. But it incorrectly picked Saint Denis to beat both Poirier and Moicano, and incorrectly picked Ruffy and Bonfim against him. The model has struggled to account for Saint Denis's vulnerability against elite competition while underestimating his finishing ability against lesser opponents.

This matchup falls somewhere in between. Hooker is experienced but declining. Saint Denis has elite finishing ability but has been exposed by top-tier fighters. The model's lean toward Saint Denis reflects his momentum and physical advantages.

Conclusion

Saint Denis's pressure, wrestling threat, and devastating left kick create problems Hooker has struggled to solve throughout his career. Hooker's path to victory requires landing counter-strikes and clinch knees while avoiding the takedown. His guillotine attempts could backfire against Saint Denis's scrambling ability. At 35 with significant mileage, Hooker faces a younger, more explosive opponent riding a three-fight finishing streak. WolfTicketsAI sides with Benoit Saint Denis to extend his momentum with another finish.