Analysis: Cam Rowston vs Cody Brundage

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Cam Rowston to Win

Score: 24
Odds:
Cam Rowston: -360
Cody Brundage: +290

Cam Rowston's Breakdown

Rowston enters this fight with limited UFC data but a strong overall record of 13-3. His lone UFC appearance was a first-round knockout of Andre Petroski in September 2025. The finish came via successive left hooks to the temple. Analysts noted these were not technically devastating punches but rather "slappy" arm-swing style hooks that found their mark against an opponent with documented chin issues.

Signature Techniques: - Slapping Left Hook: Rowston throws this punch in succession, targeting the temple. Against Petroski, he landed two of these in a row to secure the finish. The technique lacks traditional power mechanics but proved effective for capitalizing on vulnerable opponents. - Leg Kicks: His stats show 1.12 leg kicks landed per minute in his UFC debut. He uses these to establish range and set up his hands. - Head Hunting: With a ridiculous 5.59 knockdowns per fight stat (albeit from one bout), Rowston clearly looks to end fights with strikes to the head. He landed nearly 3 head strikes per minute against Petroski.

Technical Evolution: With only one UFC fight, there is not enough data to assess evolution. His 100% takedown defense (defended 1 of 1) and willingness to keep the fight standing suggest confidence in his striking.

Cam Rowston's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Unknown Durability Under Fire: Rowston absorbed zero head strikes and zero body strikes in his UFC debut. We simply do not know how he responds when hit clean or pressured. Against a scrappy brawler like Brundage who will throw volume, this becomes a question mark.

2. Striking Accuracy Concerns: Rowston landed only 33% of his significant strikes against Petroski. His head strike accuracy was roughly 26% (2.98 landed from 11.55 attempted per minute). Against someone who survives early and applies pressure, this inefficiency could become problematic.

3. Limited Sample Size: One fight is not enough to identify patterns. Brundage and his Factory X corner will have minimal tape to study, but the same applies in reverse. Rowston has not been tested by UFC-level grappling or sustained pressure.

Cody Brundage's Breakdown

Brundage owns a 5-5-1 UFC record with one no contest. His recent form is concerning: he has won just 1 of his last 5 fights (the Julian Marquez knockout in March 2025). The Mansur Abdul-Malik bout was later overturned to a draw, and he lost a split decision to Eric McConico at light heavyweight in August 2025.

Signature Techniques: - Fence-Backed Counter Swinging: Brundage has a habit of covering up against the cage and returning fire with wild hooks. Against Marquez, he appeared to be losing the fight before landing a knockout punch immediately after a referee break. This scrappy, chaotic style can produce finishes but leaves him vulnerable. - Guillotine Choke: His Performance of the Night win over Dalcha Lungiambula came via guillotine from guard after absorbing heavy punishment. When opponents shoot carelessly, Brundage can capitalize with this submission. - Ground and Pound from Top: When Brundage secures top position, he can deal damage. Against Nick Maximov, he landed devastating elbows in round three that cut his opponent open.

Technical Evolution: Brundage has not shown meaningful technical improvement over his UFC tenure. His defense remains porous, and his fight IQ continues to be questioned. The Rodolfo Vieira loss exemplified this when he jumped guard for a guillotine against a seven-time BJJ world champion and was promptly submitted.

Cody Brundage's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Striking Defense (38.6% overall, 33.9% recent): Brundage is extremely hittable. Against Oleksiejczuk, he was TKO'd via ground and pound after conceding top position. Against Abdul-Malik, he was getting hurt in round three before the accidental head clash. His habit of keeping hands low and swinging wild leaves his chin exposed.

2. Poor Fight IQ and Decision-Making: The Vieira fight remains the clearest example. Brundage was winning on the feet, dropped Vieira with a right hand, then inexplicably jumped guard for a guillotine against an elite grappler and got submitted. He repeatedly makes tactical errors that cost him fights.

3. Chin Durability Under Sustained Fire: Brundage has been stopped by strikes twice (William Knight on DWCS, Oleksiejczuk in the UFC). When power punchers find their mark, he folds. Against Lungiambula, he was nearly stopped before securing the guillotine. His recent win percentage of 33% reflects this vulnerability.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Rowston's left hooks could exploit Brundage's documented defensive gaps. Brundage keeps his hands low and swings wild in exchanges, which creates openings for the temple-targeting hooks Rowston used against Petroski. If Rowston can land clean early, Brundage's chin may not hold up.

Brundage's path to victory likely involves making this ugly. His wrestling background (two-time NCAA D2 national qualifier) could theoretically help him close distance, but his takedown defense ratio is only 45.5% and his recent takedown accuracy sits at 45.4%. More importantly, Rowston defended his only takedown attempt in the UFC.

The key question: Can Brundage survive long enough to drag Rowston into deep waters? Rowston's cardio and durability are untested. But Brundage's recent form suggests he may get cracked before he can implement any grappling strategy.

Brundage's guillotine threat exists if Rowston shoots carelessly, but Rowston showed zero takedown attempts against Petroski. He appears content to strike, which plays into his hands against a defensively porous opponent like Brundage.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Rowston likely establishes range with leg kicks and looks to land his left hooks. Brundage will try to close distance and make it messy. If Rowston lands clean in the first two minutes, this could end quickly given Brundage's chin issues.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Brundage survives the early onslaught, he may try to clinch and drag the fight to the fence. His fence-backed counter swinging could create chaos, but Rowston's 78-inch reach versus Brundage's 72 inches gives the Australian a significant advantage in managing distance.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): This is a three-round fight. Brundage has shown heart and late-fight rallies (see the Maximov fight), but his recent cardio and durability under pressure have been suspect. Rowston's conditioning is unknown.

Analysis and Key Points

• Brundage has lost 2 of his last 3 fights (McConico loss, Abdul-Malik draw). His recent win percentage of 33% is a red flag.
• Brundage was recently hurt badly by Abdul-Malik before the head clash ended that fight. He was "coming in for the kill" when the accidental stoppage occurred.
• Rowston's 78-inch reach versus Brundage's 72 inches creates a 6-inch advantage for the Australian.
• Brundage's striking defense (33.9% recent) is among the worst in the division. Rowston should find his chin.
• Rowston has fewer than 2 UFC fights, which adds uncertainty to this prediction. His durability and cardio remain untested.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Rowston, with the odds contributing +21 points to the prediction score. This reflects the betting market's assessment that Rowston is a significant favorite.

Additional factors boosting Rowston's score: - Recent Win Percentage (+2): Rowston's 81% recent win rate versus Brundage's 33% - Significant Striking Impact Differential (+1): Rowston at +5 versus Brundage at -4.08 - Striking Impact Differential (+1): Rowston at +13 versus Brundage at -13.85 - Reach (+1): Rowston's 78 inches versus Brundage's 72 - Recent Significant Striking Output Differential (+1): Rowston at +23 versus Brundage at -8.62 - Recent Average Striking Output Differential (+1): Rowston at +35 versus Brundage at -21.89 - Striking Defense Percentage (+1): Rowston at 46.2% versus Brundage at 38.6%

No features decreased the prediction score meaningfully.

Past Model Performance

Cam Rowston: WolfTicketsAI has no prediction history for Rowston. This is his second UFC fight, so the model is working with limited data.

Cody Brundage: The model has predicted 11 Brundage fights with a 7-3 record (one no contest excluded). Notable results: - Correctly predicted Brundage to beat Marquez (+0.58 confidence) - Correctly predicted Brundage to beat Lungiambula (+0.30 confidence) - Incorrectly predicted against Brundage versus Tresean Gore (Brundage won by KO) - Incorrectly predicted against Brundage versus Alhassan (no contest) - Incorrectly predicted against Brundage versus Malkoun (Brundage won by DQ)

The model has historically been solid at identifying when Brundage will lose to superior competition but has missed some of his chaotic upset wins. However, those wins came against opponents with specific vulnerabilities. Rowston represents a different challenge as a heavy favorite with knockout power.

Conclusion

Rowston enters as a massive favorite for good reason. Brundage's striking defense is atrocious, his recent form is poor (1 win in last 5), and he has been hurt or stopped by power punchers multiple times. Rowston's left hooks target the temple, and Brundage's habit of keeping his hands low creates a clear path to the finish.

The main concern is Rowston's limited UFC experience and untested durability. But Brundage has not shown the ability to consistently hurt opponents on the feet, and his wrestling has been neutralized by fighters with far less reach than Rowston.

WolfTicketsAI backs Cam Rowston to get the job done, likely via knockout when those left hooks find Brundage's exposed chin.