Analysis: Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alexander Volkanovski to Win

Score: 8
Odds:
Alexander Volkanovski: -142
Diego Lopes: +122

Alexander Volkanovski's Breakdown

Volkanovski enters this rematch as one of the most tactically sophisticated fighters in UFC history. His performance against Lopes in their first meeting at UFC 314 was a clinic in lateral movement and feinting. He circled right constantly, stepping past Lopes' lead foot to neutralize the Brazilian's power and counter-striking ability. The inside low kick was his bread and butter, landing it repeatedly because Lopes' long, rooted stance left his lead leg exposed.

Signature Techniques:

1. Fake Right Hand to Sidestep Sequence - Volkanovski fakes squaring his shoulders as if throwing the right hand, then steps out to his right with his right foot, bringing his left foot back into stance. He used this constantly in rounds 1-3 against Lopes, conditioning him to freeze on feints before landing the real overhand right followed by left hook-right straight combinations.

2. Step-Up Inside Low Kick - His signature weapon that set UFC records against Max Holloway (75 leg kicks). Against Lopes, he "punted his lead leg out of the way" repeatedly because Lopes' extended stance made checking nearly impossible.

3. Southpaw Switch Counter Right Hook - After throwing the inside low kick, he steps back into southpaw. When opponents chase to retaliate, he parries and throws a lead right hook. This technique finished Yair Rodriguez in round 3 and troubled Lopes throughout their first fight.

Technical Evolution:

Since the Topuria loss, Volkanovski has shown improved discipline in his directional movement. Against Lopes, he abandoned the pattern of jabbing while circling left with his head elevated that got him knocked out by Topuria. He committed almost exclusively to circling right, keeping his head safer and maintaining composure throughout five rounds.

Alexander Volkanovski's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Cross Counter Over the Jab - Topuria finished him by timing a right hand across the top of his jab when Volkanovski was jabbing with his chin up. Lopes favors this exact punch. In round 4 of their first fight, Lopes hurt Volkanovski, suggesting this vulnerability remains exploitable.

2. Takedowns Landing in Closed Guard - When Volkanovski shoots, he frequently ends up in his opponent's closed guard. Against Lopes in rounds 1-2, he was pulled into closed guard where Lopes is dangerous with submissions. Ortega nearly finished him with a mounted guillotine and triangle at UFC 266 using this same tendency.

3. Composure Under Sustained Pressure - Against Topuria, Volkanovski got caught jabbing with his chin up while panicking along the cage. When pressured effectively toward the fence, his technical execution deteriorates. Lopes briefly capitalized on this in round 4 when he hurt Volkanovski, though his inability to cut the cage prevented him from finishing.

Diego Lopes's Breakdown

Lopes is a physical specimen at featherweight with legitimate knockout power and one of the most dangerous guards in the division. His recent knockout of Jean Silva via back elbow showed his finishing ability, and his unanimous decision over Brian Ortega demonstrated improved striking fundamentals.

Signature Techniques:

1. Cross Counter / Looping Right Hand Over the Top - Lopes times opponent's jabs or double jabs to throw a looping right hand that arcs over their extended lead hand. He landed this repeatedly against Ortega, dropping him in round 1 with a devastating sequence.

2. Double Collar Tie to Knee - When opponents enter with their head low, Lopes grabs two hands behind the head and delivers knees. Against Dan Ige, he punished linear entries with this technique constantly, creating psychological pressure that disrupted Ige's rhythm.

3. High Mount Downward Elbows - From mount, Lopes transitions to a high position where the opponent's head is near his hip, then delivers downward elbows to the top of the head. Against Jean Silva, this immediately opened a significant cut.

Technical Evolution:

Against Silva, Lopes showed intelligent grappling awareness by specifically avoiding front headlock positions, denying Silva's preferred guillotine setups. His clinch work has improved, with the collar tie to uppercut combination becoming a reliable weapon.

Diego Lopes's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Inside Low Kicks - His long, rooted stance makes the lead leg extremely vulnerable. Volkanovski exploited this constantly in their first fight, landing inside low kicks at will because Lopes couldn't check or evade effectively when planted for counter punches.

2. Inability to Cut the Cage - When opponents circle laterally, Lopes simply chases in straight lines rather than cutting off the ring. In round 4 of their first fight, he hurt Volkanovski but couldn't capitalize because he just ran after him in straight lines while Volkanovski recovered on his bicycle.

3. Cannot Attack to His Left - When chasing an opponent circling to his left (outside his lead leg), Lopes lacks techniques to intercept or pin them. Volkanovski circled right for five rounds, and Lopes was "completely ineffective" when forced to throw his right hand while pivoting around his lead foot, often falling forward and missing badly.

Previous Fight Breakdown

These two fought at UFC 314 on April 12, 2025, with Volkanovski winning by unanimous decision. Volkanovski executed a masterful gameplan, circling right constantly to neutralize Lopes' power. The inside low kick was slapped in constantly because Lopes' extended stance left him vulnerable. Volkanovski's feinting drew Lopes into freezing, then he'd land clean overhand rights followed by left hook-right straight combinations.

Lopes hurt Volkanovski in round 4, but his inability to cut the cage was "really obvious" as he had a guy in trouble and just ran after him in straight lines. Volkanovski recovered and controlled the final round. The technical analysis concluded that "if you've worked him out once, it's gonna be pretty easy to do it again" unless Lopes makes significant changes.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Volkanovski's techniques that exploit Lopes' defensive gaps:

• Inside low kicks will continue to punish Lopes' rooted stance. Unless Lopes has fundamentally changed his footwork, this weapon remains highly effective.
• Lateral movement to the right forces Lopes to pivot and chase, neutralizing his power. Lopes showed no ability to cut the cage in their first fight.
• Feinting sequences freeze Lopes because he doesn't like missing and is reluctant to commit to volume. Volkanovski can fake 3-4 times, then land clean.

Lopes' techniques that could cause problems for Volkanovski:

• The cross counter over the jab is how Topuria finished Volkanovski, and it's one of Lopes' favorite punches. If Volkanovski jabs with his chin elevated, Lopes can capitalize.
• Closed guard submissions remain dangerous. Volkanovski's takedowns frequently land him in guard where Lopes threatens armbars and triangles.
• Power in both hands means Lopes only needs one clean shot. He hurt Volkanovski in round 4 of their first fight.

Historical parallel: The Volkanovski-Lopes dynamic mirrors Volkanovski's trilogy with Max Holloway, where Volkanovski's tactical adjustments and leg kicks neutralized a dangerous volume striker. Lopes lacks Holloway's cardio and cage-cutting ability, making this an even more favorable matchup for Volkanovski.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds (1-2): Volkanovski's techniques will likely establish dominance. His feinting and lateral movement worked immediately in their first fight, and Lopes showed no ability to adjust. Expect inside low kicks to accumulate damage on Lopes' lead leg, potentially forcing a stance switch that further disrupts his offense.

Mid-fight (3-4): This is where danger exists for Volkanovski. In their first fight, Lopes hurt him in round 4. If Volkanovski gets complacent or starts jabbing with his chin up, Lopes' cross counter could land clean. But Lopes' inability to cut the cage means even if he hurts Volkanovski, he may not finish.

Championship rounds (5): Volkanovski's cardio advantage should be decisive. Lopes' output tends to decrease when he can't land, and his reluctance to miss punches limits his volume. Volkanovski maintained "insane pressure" in late rounds against Holloway and should do the same here.

Analysis and Key Points

• Lopes showed no tactical evolution between fights. The transcript explicitly states he's "not a changing fighter" who doesn't bring different game plans.
• Volkanovski's lateral movement completely neutralized Lopes' power. Unless Lopes has developed attacks from his left side (wide lead hook, wheel kicks, back kicks), this problem persists.
• Inside low kicks will continue to land. Lopes' long stance makes checking nearly impossible when he's rooted for counter punches.
• Round 4 danger exists. Lopes hurt Volkanovski once, proving he has the power to finish if he lands clean.
• Cage cutting remains Lopes' Achilles heel. Even when he hurt Volkanovski, he couldn't capitalize because he chased in straight lines.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 8 is driven by several key features:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 7.0 - Volkanovski's career striking differential (+46.1 significant striking impact) dwarfs Lopes' negative differential (-4.4), reflecting his ability to outlast and outwork opponents.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 3.0 - Even in his recent fights including losses, Volkanovski maintains positive striking differentials.
• Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 3.0 - Career-long advantage in landing more than he absorbs.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 3.0 - Volkanovski's willingness to mix in wrestling (4.4 attempts recently) adds another dimension Lopes must respect.
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0 - Volkanovski's 55% striking defense significantly exceeds Lopes' 41%.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0 - Volkanovski's 33% recent win rate (1-2 in last 3) is a concern, though both losses came against elite competition (Makhachev, Topuria).
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0 - Lopes' rising TrueSkill rating (23.8 Mu) reflects his recent wins, though Volkanovski's remains significantly higher (43.5 Mu).

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with Volkanovski, correctly predicting his wins over Lopes (0.57), Yair Rodriguez (0.77), Max Holloway (0.70), and Chan Sung Jung (0.83). The model also correctly predicted his losses to Islam Makhachev in both fights (0.67 and 0.78). The only miss was predicting Volkanovski to beat Topuria (0.56), where Volkanovski lost by KO/TKO in round 2.

For Lopes, the model has been less accurate. It correctly predicted his wins over Brian Ortega (0.65) and Gavin Tucker (0.66), but incorrectly predicted against him versus Jean Silva (0.54), Sodiq Yusuff (0.61), and Pat Sabatini (0.35). This suggests the model may underestimate Lopes' finishing ability against certain opponents.

Risk factor: The Topuria loss shows Volkanovski can be finished by power punchers who pressure effectively and time his jab. Lopes has similar power but lacks Topuria's cage-cutting ability, which should limit his opportunities.

Conclusion

Volkanovski already solved the Diego Lopes puzzle once, and nothing in Lopes' subsequent performances suggests he's developed the technical tools to change the outcome. The Brazilian's inability to cut the cage, attack to his left, or defend inside low kicks were all exposed in their first meeting. Volkanovski's lateral movement, feinting, and leg kicks should control the pace again. While Lopes' power makes him dangerous in any exchange, his tactical limitations mean he'll likely spend another five rounds chasing a ghost. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Volkanovski at a confidence score of 8 reflects the significant technical mismatch that favors the former champion.