Analysis: Waldo Cortes Acosta vs Derrick Lewis

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Derrick Lewis to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
Waldo Cortes Acosta: +285
Derrick Lewis: -350

Waldo Cortes Acosta's Breakdown

"Salsa Boy" rides a hot streak into UFC 324, coming off back-to-back first-round knockouts over Shamil Gaziev and Ante Delija within a three-week span. The Dominican heavyweight has shown elite finishing power with his right hand—a weapon he's developed from his days as a professional baseball pitcher. Against Gaziev, Cortes Acosta used a crisp jab to set up a devastating right hand that left Gaziev unconscious before he hit the floor. The Delija fight showcased his mental toughness: after being poked in the eye and fighting with roughly 20% vision, he still found the knockout less than 30 seconds after the restart.

His signature techniques include: - Jab-to-right-hand combination: Against Gaziev, he used this setup twice to score knockdowns in 82 seconds - Counter right hand from the cage: When backed against the fence by Delija, he uncorked a rapid right that dropped his opponent - Forward pressure with volume: Against Spivac, he maintained a high pace, landing 6.21 significant strikes per minute

Cortes Acosta has evolved since his decision loss to Sergei Pavlovich in August 2025. He's described the change as "the old Waldo is back again"—more patient, more composed, but still hunting knockouts. His recent win percentage of 67% and four wins in his last six fights show a fighter hitting his stride at 34 years old.

Waldo Cortes Acosta's Technical Vulnerabilities

Leg Kick Defense (High Severity): This has been a consistent problem throughout his career. Against Marcos Rogerio de Lima, leg kicks had him "stumbling within the first minute" and visibly compromised his movement. Against Jared Vanderaa, he absorbed repeated calf kicks without checking, and against Chase Sherman, the same pattern emerged. He plants heavy on his lead leg, making it an easy target. Lewis has shown he can utilize leg kicks when needed.

Cage Positioning Under Pressure (Medium Severity): Cortes Acosta tends to back himself to the fence when facing forward pressure. Against Delija, he was backed up and absorbing punches before the eye poke incident. Against Pavlovich, he "fought with his back foot on the fence the entire time." Lewis's pressure-based approach could exploit this tendency.

Lack of Power Against High Guards (Medium Severity): Against Spivac, his punches frequently landed on forearms and the top of the head rather than clean facial strikes. Spivac's committed high guard with chin tucked neutralized much of his offense. Lewis, despite his limitations, has shown defensive awareness when hurt.

Derrick Lewis's Breakdown

"The Black Beast" holds the UFC record for most knockouts in heavyweight history with 16. At 40 years old, Lewis remains dangerous because his power never diminishes—whether fresh or exhausted, his right hand carries fight-ending consequences. Against Tallison Teixeira in July 2025, Lewis overcame a significant height and reach disadvantage (4 inches height, 80-inch reach on Teixeira) by timing a left hook counter as Teixeira retreated and jabbed simultaneously.

His signature techniques include: - Right hand over the jab: Lewis throws his power right across the top of opponent's jabs, intercepting jabbing opponents - Bait and counter trap: Lewis exaggerates being hurt to draw opponents into rushing in recklessly, then looks for knockout counters - Bridge and roll escape from mount: His two-handed wrist grab roll from bottom position has become a signature defensive technique

Lewis's ground escapes deserve attention. Against Jailton Almeida, he spent five rounds underneath an elite grappler, constantly trying to get back up. His wrist control from bottom mount frustrated Almeida so thoroughly that Almeida stood up from mount to break grips, allowing Lewis to escape. Against Rodrigo Nascimento, he used an inside trip to reverse the wrestling dynamic before finishing in round three.

Derrick Lewis's Technical Vulnerabilities

Cardio/Conditioning (High Severity): Lewis struggles in extended fights. Against Ciryl Gane, he was completely broken down over three rounds, landing only 16 significant strikes while absorbing 98. Against Jailton Almeida, his escape techniques failed completely when gassed in round four—he "rolled and missed the hand" because fatigue caused late timing. Five-round fights are particularly problematic.

High-Volume Striking Exchanges (Medium Severity): Lewis is not effective when forced into extended striking exchanges. As noted, "If there's 100 strikes being thrown on the feet in a fight, he's not doing what he wants." Cortes Acosta's 6.21 significant strikes per minute could push Lewis into uncomfortable territory.

Body Attack Susceptibility (High Severity): Against Tai Tuivasa, body kicks had Lewis "standing lock-legged and taking them in just the ugliest way possible." Every kick to Lewis's body looks like he wants to give up. Cortes Acosta has shown willingness to attack the body with kicks and punches.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic power-vs-power heavyweight collision with contrasting approaches. Cortes Acosta's volume-based boxing and forward pressure could theoretically overwhelm Lewis's low-output style. However, Lewis's counter-punching timing poses significant danger to Cortes Acosta's tendency to move forward in straight lines.

Cortes Acosta's weapons that could exploit Lewis: - His high striking output (6.21 significant strikes per minute) could push Lewis into uncomfortable exchanges - Body kicks could accumulate damage on Lewis's historically vulnerable midsection - Forward pressure could back Lewis to the cage where his output typically drops

Lewis's weapons that could exploit Cortes Acosta: - Counter right hands over Cortes Acosta's jab—a technique Lewis used effectively against Teixeira - Leg kicks to Cortes Acosta's lead leg, which he's historically failed to check - The bait-and-counter trap against Cortes Acosta's aggressive forward movement

The Pavlovich fight provides a template for beating Cortes Acosta: back him to the fence, pop him with punches, move back when he swings, then counter with short right hands. Lewis has shown this exact pattern against multiple opponents.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Cortes Acosta typically starts strong with volume and pressure. His recent knockouts have come early—82 seconds against Gaziev, 3:59 against Delija. If he can establish his jab and find the right hand early, Lewis could be in trouble. However, Lewis's power remains constant regardless of timing, and his counter-punching is most effective when opponents are fresh and aggressive.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If the fight reaches round three, Lewis's cardio becomes a factor. His output drops significantly, and his defensive techniques become less reliable. Cortes Acosta's conditioning has held up better in recent fights, though he showed fatigue against Pavlovich.

Championship Rounds (If Applicable): This is a three-round fight, which favors Lewis. He doesn't need to worry about rounds four and five where his limitations become most apparent.

Analysis and Key Points

• Lewis's TrueSkill rating (33.59) significantly exceeds Cortes Acosta's (25.96), reflecting Lewis's longer track record against higher-level competition
• Cortes Acosta's recent KO streak (Gaziev, Delija) shows he's dangerous, but neither opponent possessed Lewis's counter-punching timing
• Lewis's takedown defense (88.9%) neutralizes any wrestling threat from Cortes Acosta
• The odds (-350 Lewis) heavily favor the veteran, and the model's low confidence score (18) suggests this is closer than the betting line indicates
• Cortes Acosta's leg kick vulnerability could be exploited by Lewis, who has shown willingness to use kicks when needed
• Lewis's body vulnerability could be exploited by Cortes Acosta's varied attack

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP analysis reveals interesting dynamics:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 17.0—the model is essentially fighting against the heavy favorite status, suggesting Lewis's -350 line may be slightly inflated
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 2.0—both fighters are winning at 67% recently, but Lewis's wins came against tougher opposition
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0—Lewis's 40.56% significant striking defense edges Cortes Acosta's 55.86%, but Lewis's ability to survive damage matters more than avoiding it
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—despite Lewis's higher rating, the model sees some uncertainty
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1.0—Lewis's 2.36 attempts versus Cortes Acosta's 0.82 suggests Lewis may look to mix in wrestling

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

For Cortes Acosta: The model correctly predicted his wins over Delija, Spivac, Spann, Arlovski, Brzeski, and Sherman. However, it incorrectly picked Robelis Despaigne over him and incorrectly picked him to beat Marcos Rogerio de Lima (he lost). The model has been right 7 of 9 times on Cortes Acosta fights.

For Lewis: The model incorrectly predicted Tallison Teixeira to beat Lewis (Lewis won by KO). It correctly predicted Lewis over Nascimento but incorrectly picked Lewis over Tai Tuivasa (Lewis lost by KO). The model has struggled with Lewis's unpredictable knockout power—he's beaten fighters the model favored and lost to fighters the model thought he'd beat.

Caution: Lewis's ability to defy predictions with single-punch knockouts makes him a wild card. The model's 18-point confidence score reflects this uncertainty.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Derrick Lewis to defeat Waldo Cortes Acosta. Despite Cortes Acosta's recent knockout streak and higher volume output, Lewis's counter-punching timing, superior takedown defense, and proven ability to end fights with single shots give him the edge. Cortes Acosta's tendency to move forward in straight lines and his vulnerability to leg kicks play directly into Lewis's strengths. The "Black Beast" has been finishing heavyweights for over a decade, and while Cortes Acosta represents a legitimate threat, Lewis's experience and power should carry him to victory—likely via knockout when Cortes Acosta overcommits on an attack.