Analysis: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Deiveson Figueiredo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Umar Nurmagomedov to Win

Score: 31
Odds:
Umar Nurmagomedov: -1500
Deiveson Figueiredo: +850

Umar Nurmagomedov's Breakdown

Umar Nurmagomedov brings elite Dagestani grappling with a twist—he's more aggressive about back takes than his famous cousin Khabib. His signature chain wrestling sequences are relentless. Against Mario Bautista at UFC 321, he landed 11-of-14 takedowns and accumulated over 10 minutes of control time. When Bautista threw body kicks, Umar caught them and immediately transitioned into tani otoshi variations for quick dumps to the mat.

His back control game is suffocating. Once he secures the body triangle, opponents rarely escape cleanly. Against Bautista, he demonstrated a crab hook mat return from back body lock—pulling on hips while sitting backwards and kicking out to trip his opponent. This technique mirrors what Alexandre Pantoja uses at flyweight.

On the feet, Umar's evolved significantly. Against Cory Sandhagen, his jab looked sharp and he showed legitimate two-handed combinations. His knee-feint-to-step-through punching is particularly dangerous—he raises his left knee threatening a kick, then steps through with a 1-2 into orthodox. This motion hurt Merab Dvalishvili in Round 1 of their title fight.

His kick-to-takedown chain is devastatingly simple: throw a kick, opponent backs up, wait for them to step back in, then dive on the legs. Sandhagen had no answer for this timing.

Umar Nurmagomedov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Ducking Head on Level Changes: Umar has a persistent habit of dropping his head when shooting takedowns. Against Bautista, a flying knee caught him flush in Round 2 and dropped him. He acknowledged this himself post-fight, noting that Khabib constantly reminds him to fix this. Figueiredo's uppercut timing could exploit this tendency.

Championship Round Cardio: The Merab fight exposed a dramatic cardio collapse. In Round 4, Umar went from fighting normally to looking like he wanted to quit within moments. His recovery between rounds was insufficient—he'd come out with energy in Round 5 but fade within two minutes. Against Merab's relentless pressure, he simply couldn't maintain his technical execution.

Leg Lock Vulnerability: Against Bautista, he got caught in a dangerous toe hold/heel hook early in Round 1. He escaped but admitted the submission was close. Figueiredo has shown 50/50 entries and leg entanglement awareness.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Breakdown

Figueiredo has reinvented himself at bantamweight as a wrestling-heavy fighter. His signature technique is bizarre but effective—a pull counter motion that transitions directly into a double leg. Against Montel Jackson, he used this repeatedly throughout their split decision win. It shouldn't work, but the unusual timing creates lead time on what's essentially a reactive shot.

His power remains dangerous at 135. Against Marlon Vera, he dropped him late in Round 5 with a straight right, proving he can hurt bigger bantamweights. His body shots troubled Vera throughout, and his strike-to-takedown timing was "flawless"—throwing a punch, pulling back from the return, then immediately shooting on the hips.

Figueiredo's cross counter off the jab defined his win over Rob Font. He waits for opponents to jab, pulls back, then throws a right hand over the top. When Font started ducking without punching, Figueiredo adjusted with a forward-driving uppercut that caught him clean on the chin.

His clinch wrestling variety has expanded significantly—inside trips, trap hook dumps, single legs with pipe runs, and over-under fence trips with knee taps. Against Font, he showed crazy variety that wasn't present during his flyweight reign.

Deiveson Figueiredo's Technical Vulnerabilities

Left Hook Defense: This is chronic and career-long. Figueiredo has never slipped or blocked a left hook effectively. Brandon Moreno landed his left hook for free across all four of their fights. The finishing sequence in their fourth fight came when Moreno parried Figueiredo's kick and immediately jumped in with the left hook that swelled his eye shut.

Wide Stance Exploitation: Figueiredo's deep, wide stance optimizes his rear hand power but leaves his lead leg dangerously exposed. Petr Yan attacked with side kicks to the knee throughout their fight, particularly in Round 2, compromising Figueiredo's base and limiting his offensive output. He was dropped by an uppercut when he ducked into Yan's timing.

Volume Deficit: Against Yan, Figueiredo landed only 53 significant strikes to Yan's 121. He was shutout 50-45 on all three scorecards despite remaining dangerous. His low output style gets him outworked against high-pace fighters who can survive his power.

Back Defense: Against Sandhagen, once Cory secured the back with a body triangle, Figueiredo couldn't escape. His hand-fighting was insufficient—Sandhagen peeled his hands apart and turned back into him repeatedly. The fight ended via heel hook in 50/50, exposing his limited leg lock knowledge.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Umar's chain wrestling presents the most dangerous threat to Figueiredo. When Figueiredo shoots his pull-counter-to-double-leg, Umar's whizzer counters and scrambling ability could turn those entries into back exposure. Against Sandhagen, Figueiredo's back take attempts failed repeatedly because Sandhagen simply peeled his hands apart.

Figueiredo's uppercut timing could exploit Umar's head-ducking tendency on level changes. The same vulnerability that got Umar dropped by Bautista's knee is exactly what Figueiredo's forward-driving uppercut targets.

However, Umar's kick-to-takedown chain is difficult to defend. Figueiredo's wide stance makes him vulnerable to being knocked off balance when backing up from kicks—the same dynamic Yan exploited with side kicks. Once Umar gets the fight to the mat, his back control with body triangles has proven nearly inescapable against UFC-level competition.

Figueiredo's guillotine threat from bottom guard is real—he's submitted multiple opponents this way. But Umar shoots head-outside singles specifically to avoid guillotine exposure, a technique drilled into him by Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov's system.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Umar to establish his kicking game and look for reactive takedowns. Figueiredo will try to time his pull-counter-to-double-leg when Umar advances. The first successful takedown will be critical—if Umar gets top position early, he'll look to accumulate control time and threaten the back.

Mid-Fight: If Figueiredo can keep the fight standing into Round 2, his power becomes increasingly dangerous as Umar potentially shows cardio decline. However, Umar's cardio issues were specifically against Merab's relentless pressure—Figueiredo's lower output might not trigger the same collapse.

Late Rounds: Figueiredo's recent win percentage is 33%—he's lost two of his last three. His cardio held up against Yan for five rounds, but he was comprehensively outworked. If this fight goes deep, Umar's grappling control should dominate unless Figueiredo can land something significant.

Analysis and Key Points

• Umar's takedown volume is elite: 4.23 takedowns per fight recently, with 9+ attempts. Figueiredo defends only 65.6% of takedowns recently.
• Figueiredo was recently KO'd: Sandhagen finished him via heel hook/TKO in May 2025. Fighters who've been stopped recently often get stopped again.
• Figueiredo's recent form is concerning: 1-2 in his last three, with losses to Yan (shutout decision) and Sandhagen (TKO).
• Umar's striking defense is superior: 67.9% significant striking defense versus Figueiredo's 45.4%.
• The odds reflect reality: Umar at -1500 is heavily favored for good reason. His grappling control should neutralize Figueiredo's power.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 31 is relatively modest, but several SHAP features drove the prediction:

• Odds increased the score by 19 points—the betting market strongly favors Umar, and the model weighs this heavily.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 5 points—Umar lands clean while absorbing little (+35.2 recent differential versus Figueiredo's -8.7).
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight added 3 points—Umar's 9.24 attempts per fight creates constant grappling pressure.
• Striking Defense Percentage added 2 points—Umar's 59% defense versus Figueiredo's 40% recent defense.
• TrueSkill added 1 point—Umar's rating (38.55) edges Figueiredo's (37.82).

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a perfect 6-0 record predicting Umar Nurmagomedov's fights, including correctly picking him over Sandhagen (0.63 confidence) and Bautista (0.81 confidence). The model also correctly predicted his loss to Merab, picking Dvalishvili at 0.57.

For Figueiredo, the model is 4-4—notably wrong on his wins over Vera and Font, but correct on his losses to Yan and Sandhagen. The model has struggled with Figueiredo's upset potential but accurately identified when he'd lose to elite competition.

Conclusion

Umar Nurmagomedov should control this fight through relentless chain wrestling and suffocating back control. Figueiredo's power remains dangerous, but his recent form (1-2, including a TKO loss) and technical vulnerabilities against grapplers make him a significant underdog for good reason. Umar's cardio concerns are real, but Figueiredo's low output likely won't trigger the same collapse that Merab's pressure caused. WolfTicketsAI picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win via grappling dominance.