Analysis: Nikita Krylov vs Modestas Bukauskas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Modestas Bukauskas to Win

Score: 0
Odds:
Nikita Krylov: 117
Modestas Bukauskas: -137

Nikita Krylov's Breakdown

Krylov enters this fight in freefall. He's dropped two straight by first-round KO—Dominick Reyes caught him with counter left hands when he shifted forward recklessly, and Bogdan Guskov timed him with a counter right when he returned to his kicking game. This is a fighter who has been figured out.

The Ukrainian possesses legitimate tools from his Kyokushin karate background. His body kicks carry real power, and he showed against Johnny Walker that he can grind out wins with wrestling when needed—securing takedowns in all three rounds and working elbows from top position. Against Volkan Oezdemir, he demonstrated he can start fast and finish with volume.

But Krylov's signature techniques have become liabilities:

1. Shifting Attacks: When throwing his right hand, Krylov's head gets too far ahead of his hips, forcing him to step his back foot forward to catch himself. This "shifting by necessity" rather than purposeful technique got him countered badly against Reyes.

2. Kyokushin Kicking: His kicks are legitimate, but he abandons them for boxing where he's less effective. Against Guskov, he started kicking, switched to boxing, then got smoked the moment he returned to kicking.

3. Guillotine Hunting: He's been submitted multiple times attempting guillotines from bad positions—the Von Flue choke loss to OSP, the triangle from Paul Craig when he got cocky and threw a backfist in guard.

At 33, Krylov has lost 4 of his last 6 UFC fights. His recent win percentage sits at just 33%.

Nikita Krylov's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Counter Right Hand Susceptibility: Krylov consistently walks into counter punches when initiating exchanges. Against Reyes, he ran face-first into counter left hands after being conditioned to chase. Against Guskov, he walked onto a counter right the moment he went back to kicking. His head position when throwing strikes leaves his chin exposed.

2. Strategic Inconsistency: Krylov abandons his best weapon—his kicking game—in favor of boxing where he's outmatched. He lacks the discipline to stick to a gameplan, making him predictable once opponents establish their timing.

3. Submission Defense Against Chokes: He's been submitted via Von Flue choke (OSP), arm triangle (Blachowicz), guillotine (Cirkunov), and triangle (Craig). When he forces submission attempts from disadvantageous positions, elite grapplers capitalize.

Modestas Bukauskas's Breakdown

Bukauskas has quietly strung together four consecutive wins since returning from a devastating knee injury. The oblique kick from Khalil Rountree that hyperextended his knee in 2021 seemed career-threatening—torn meniscus, MCL, and an ACL "hanging on like tooth floss." But the Lithuanian has rebuilt himself.

His recent performances show a fighter who's matured tactically:

1. Disciplined Top Control with Elbows: Against Paul Craig, Bukauskas refused to make the mistakes that feed Craig's dangerous guard. He stayed tight on top, kept his hands inside, and delivered devastating short elbows that sliced Craig's ear open. This patience against a submission specialist was impressive.

2. Pressure Fighting with Cage Cutting: Against Rafael Cerqueira, he recognized poor ring awareness immediately and walked his opponent to the fence repeatedly, finishing with a left hook-right straight combination.

3. Clinch Striking: His UFC debut TKO over Michailidis came via "Travis Browne elbows" from the clinch—a technique he's replicated throughout his career.

Training with Team Aspinall has clearly elevated his game. At 31, he's entering his technical prime with newfound confidence.

Modestas Bukauskas's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Takedown Defense Concerns: Pre-fight analysis has consistently identified this as a weakness. Against Oleksiejczuk, he was walked down and pressured to the fence. While he's improved, elite wrestlers could still exploit this gap.

2. Handling Aggressive Pressure Early: Against Jimmy Crute, Bukauskas was immediately overwhelmed by explosive forward pressure and power punching, getting finished in round one. He can be blitzed if he doesn't establish his rhythm.

3. Wide Stance Vulnerability: His kickboxing stance keeps his feet further apart, making his lead leg a prime target. Rountree exploited this with the fight-ending oblique kick. Krylov's Kyokushin kicks could theoretically attack this.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Bukauskas's evolved skillset against Krylov's deteriorating form.

Bukauskas's Weapons vs. Krylov's Gaps: - Bukauskas's disciplined pressure can exploit Krylov's tendency to back straight to the fence when pressured - His counter right hand timing could catch Krylov shifting forward recklessly—the same pattern that got Krylov KO'd twice recently - If the fight goes to the ground, Bukauskas's improved top control and elbow ground-and-pound can neutralize Krylov's submission attempts

Krylov's Weapons vs. Bukauskas's Gaps: - Krylov's body kicks could theoretically target Bukauskas's wide stance - His wrestling showed against Walker that he can grind—but Bukauskas's takedown defense has improved - Krylov's power remains dangerous if he lands clean, but his recent performances suggest he won't get the chance

The key question: Can Krylov establish his kicking game without getting countered? History says no. Against Reyes and Guskov, patient counter-strikers waited for him to overcommit and made him pay.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Bukauskas should look to establish pressure and test Krylov's chin early. Krylov has shown he can be hurt and finished quickly—both recent losses came in round one. If Bukauskas can cut the cage and land clean counters when Krylov shifts forward, this could end fast.

Mid-Fight: If Krylov survives the opening exchanges, his cardio concerns become relevant. Against Oezdemir, the fight "got a lot slower and more boring" after an explosive start. Bukauskas's recent performances show he can maintain output.

Championship Rounds: Not applicable for a three-round fight, but Krylov's cardio has historically been suspect. Against Teixeira, he faded after expending energy in round one.

Analysis and Key Points

• Krylov's recent KO losses are alarming. Both Reyes and Guskov timed his forward movement with counters. Bukauskas has shown he can time opponents similarly.

• Bukauskas's four-fight win streak includes quality wins. Beating Paul Craig—a dangerous submission specialist—by staying disciplined on top shows tactical maturity.

• The momentum is entirely with Bukauskas. Krylov is 2-4 in his last six; Bukauskas is 4-0 since returning from injury.

• Krylov's submission vulnerabilities matter. If this goes to the ground and Krylov attempts his usual guillotine hunting, Bukauskas's improved grappling could capitalize.

• Age and trajectory favor Bukauskas. At 31 with recent momentum versus 33-year-old Krylov on a losing skid, the arc of both careers points in one direction.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP data reveals why the model favors Bukauskas:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+4) heavily influenced the prediction—Bukauskas's recent striking efficiency has improved while Krylov's has declined
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+3) suggests Krylov's wrestling-heavy approach may not be enough
• Recent Win Percentage (-3) reflects Krylov's 33% recent win rate versus Bukauskas's perfect 100%
• Striking Defense Percentage (-2) highlights Krylov's defensive issues that led to his recent KO losses
• Win Streak Difference (-1) captures Bukauskas's four-fight streak versus Krylov's two-fight skid
• Reach (+1) gives Bukauskas a slight edge at 76" versus Krylov's 77"—minimal but noted

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Krylov predictions recently: - Predicted Krylov to beat Guskov (0.52)—WRONG (KO/TKO Round 1) - Predicted Krylov to beat Reyes (0.57)—WRONG (KO/TKO Round 1) - Predicted Krylov to beat Craig (0.61)—WRONG (Submission Round 1)

The model has been 2-3 on Krylov overall, correctly picking his wins over Oezdemir and Gustafsson but missing his recent collapse.

For Bukauskas, the model has been strong recently: - Predicted Bukauskas to beat Craig (0.61)—CORRECT - Predicted Bukauskas to beat Cutelaba (0.55)—CORRECT - Predicted Bukauskas to beat Cerqueira (0.72)—CORRECT

The model is 3-0 on Bukauskas's recent fights, capturing his resurgence accurately.

Conclusion

Krylov's recent performances paint a picture of a fighter whose timing and chin have deteriorated. He's been knocked out twice in a row by counter-strikers who waited for him to overcommit—exactly what Bukauskas can do. Meanwhile, Bukauskas has rebuilt his career with disciplined performances against quality opposition.

The model's confidence in Bukauskas aligns with the eye test: a fighter ascending versus one in decline. WolfTicketsAI has Bukauskas taking this one.