Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Paddy Pimblett to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Justin Gaethje: +190
Paddy Pimblett: -225

Justin Gaethje's Breakdown

Gaethje remains one of the most dangerous strikers at 155, but you're looking at a fighter who's dropped 2 of his last 4 UFC bouts. The Highlight's game is built around devastating leg kicks, pressure, and that springing jab he's developed under Trevor Wittman. Against Fiziev in March 2025, he showed the jab-dip entry where he smooshes his face toward the opponent's chest, grabs behind the head with his left hand, then clubs with an uppercut or right hook. That collar tie work is nasty—he loves holding position and delivering uppercuts from the clinch.

His evolution since the Poirier losses has been real. The right straight to right head kick combo that finished Poirier in their rematch showed new wrinkles. Against Chandler, he accumulated 26 significant leg strikes while absorbing a brutal first round, demonstrating both his durability and tactical patience. His low kicks are the kind that make opponents switch stances immediately—Fiziev learned that lesson twice.

But here's the thing: Gaethje got knocked out cold by Holloway in Round 5 at UFC 300. That's a recent KO loss that can't be ignored. Holloway exploited his predictable ducking pattern with uppercuts throughout, then timed the finish perfectly when Gaethje's mouth was open from breathing through a broken nose. The body work and rhythm changes wore him down systematically.

Justin Gaethje's Technical Vulnerabilities

Predictable Right-Side Dip Entry: Gaethje habitually dips his head to his right when entering exchanges. Fiziev read this in their rematch and started timing left knees and uppercuts to catch him ducking. Against Holloway, this pattern got him hurt repeatedly with uppercuts before the finishing head kick landed down the bridge of his nose. Pimblett could time counters or guillotine attempts off this entry.

Cardio Drain from Wrestling/Grappling: Gaethje openly admits wrestling tires him out—it's why he rarely uses his D1 credentials offensively. Against Oliveira, the constant clinch work and body shots drained his tank before the submission. Poirier and Alvarez both used tactical takedown attempts specifically to exhaust him, even when they didn't complete them. Pimblett's body lock throws and back-taking scrambles could exploit this.

Waist-Bend Weaving: When evading punches, Gaethje hinges at the hips rather than bending at the knees. Eddie Alvarez gave him hell with uppercuts exploiting this, and Poirier capitalized on it too. This makes him a sucker for uppercuts and knee strikes up the middle—exactly what Pimblett could threaten from clinch entries.

Paddy Pimblett's Breakdown

The Baddy just dismantled Michael Chandler—a fighter with similar explosive power to Gaethje—using calf kicks and improved wrestling. That performance wasn't a fluke. Pimblett hacked away at Chandler's lead leg while Chandler squatted low, exploiting a vulnerability that dates back to Chandler's Bellator days against Brent Primus. By Round 2, Chandler was mentally broken.

Pimblett's grappling evolution is the story here. He's moved from Sakuraba-style single leg grinding to effective body lock throws and octopus-style guard passing. Against Chandler, he put his elbow under the armpit, turned to face the legs, and when Chandler turned in, Paddy took his back. That's Marcelo Garcia-level technique. His arm trap to body triangle from back control creates nightmares—opponents have to unlock the triangle, free the arm, then address the choke, all while getting strangled.

His range game has matured too. Against Bobby Green, he used low kicks from outside to force Green to step forward, then counterpunched the entries. That's tactical intelligence compensating for his mechanical striking deficiencies. The long looping right hook he throws—whipping around the guard rather than coming overhead—works because he's typically taller than his opponents.

Paddy Pimblett's Technical Vulnerabilities

Chin Exposure on Jab: When Pimblett jabs, he lifts his head up and keeps his right hand low, almost looking over the exchange to confirm the strike landed. Against Jared Gordon, he got chinned repeatedly with counter jabs and left hooks because of this habit. Gaethje's power could make this catastrophic if he times it.

Striking Mechanics Generally: His non-punching hand drops to chest level while his chin stays elevated. Against Vendramini in his UFC debut, he got cracked with a massive left hook and taken down while still rocked. Every opponent has found his chin at some point. Gaethje's leg kicks and power shots could exploit this if the fight stays at boxing range.

Historical Takedown Execution: While improved, Pimblett's single legs used to involve diving to his knees and grinding through resistance while eating elbows. Against Gordon, he couldn't get takedowns at all. If Gaethje stuffs early attempts and makes Pimblett work, the cardio expenditure could become a factor.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight hinges on whether Pimblett can replicate his Chandler gameplan against Gaethje's leg kick defense. Gaethje's low kicks are more devastating than Chandler's, but Pimblett showed he can absorb damage and continue working his calf kick attack. The question is whether Gaethje's power differential changes that calculus.

Gaethje's predictable right-side dip entry is tailor-made for Pimblett's front headlock game. If Gaethje ducks into Pimblett's chest looking for the collar tie, Paddy could wrap the head and jump a guillotine—exactly how he finished Bobby Green. Gaethje's cardio issues against grappling exchanges favor Pimblett's body lock throws and back-taking scrambles.

However, Gaethje's leg kicks could compromise Pimblett's mobility before the grappling game materializes. Against Barboza and Cerrone, Gaethje's kicks forced immediate stance switches. If Pimblett can't move laterally, his range-based kicking game collapses.

The Holloway fight showed Gaethje can be systematically broken down by body work and rhythm changes. Pimblett doesn't have Holloway's boxing, but his grappling pressure could create similar cumulative damage. Gaethje's submission defense remains a liability—Oliveira ran through him on the mat, and Khabib submitted him in under two rounds.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Expect Gaethje to come out throwing leg kicks immediately—he landed half a dozen on Fiziev in the first minute of both fights. Pimblett needs to weather this storm and establish his own calf kick attack. If Pimblett gets hurt early (as he has in every UFC fight), his recovery and composure will be tested against Gaethje's finishing instincts.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Pimblett survives the early onslaught, his body lock wrestling should start materializing. Gaethje's cardio historically deteriorates when forced to grapple, even defensively. The Chandler fight showed Pimblett can recognize when opponents are breaking mentally and pour on pressure.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): Gaethje's been finished in Round 5 (Holloway) and Round 4 (Poirier I, Alvarez). His output typically drops as fights extend. Pimblett's cardio appears solid, and his grappling control could dominate late rounds if he's not finished early.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gaethje's recent KO loss to Holloway is a major red flag—he got systematically broken down by body work and rhythm changes before being finished in Round 5
• Pimblett's Chandler performance proved he can neutralize explosive power punchers with calf kicks and wrestling
• Gaethje's grappling cardio drain plays directly into Pimblett's body lock throws and back-taking game
• The predictable right-side dip that Gaethje uses for entries could be exploited by Pimblett's front headlock and guillotine attacks
• Pimblett's chin exposure remains concerning against Gaethje's power, but he's shown recovery ability in every UFC fight
• Gaethje at 36 with significant accumulated damage versus Pimblett riding momentum from a career-best win

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence is relatively low (21), reflecting the competitive nature of this matchup. Key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 11.0—Pimblett is the betting favorite, which the model accounts for
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3.0—Gaethje's 2-2 in his last 4 hurts him here
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 3.0—Pimblett's defensive numbers look better statistically
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0—supporting Pimblett's improved defense
• Win Streak Diff decreased the score by 2.0—Gaethje's inconsistency versus Pimblett's current run
• TrueSkill decreased the score by 1.0—Gaethje's higher rating slightly favors him, but not enough to flip the prediction

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Gaethje predictions—the model picked against him in his wins over Fiziev (both times) and Poirier, going 1-4 overall on his fights. That's a significant caution flag.

For Pimblett, the model is 5-1, correctly predicting his wins over Chandler, Ferguson, Gordon, Leavitt, and Vargas. The only miss was picking Bobby Green, who Pimblett submitted in Round 1.

The model's track record strongly favors trusting Pimblett predictions while being skeptical of Gaethje calls.

Conclusion

Pimblett's evolved wrestling, calf kick attack, and Gaethje's recent KO loss create a path to victory for The Baddy. Gaethje's power remains dangerous, but his cardio issues against grappling, predictable entries, and submission vulnerabilities align poorly against Pimblett's strengths. WolfTicketsAI sees Pimblett grinding out a decision or finding a late finish as Gaethje's accumulated damage catches up with him.