Analysis: Alex Perez vs Charles Johnson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Charles Johnson to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Alex Perez: +175
Charles Johnson: -205

Alex Perez's Breakdown

Alex Perez is a former UFC flyweight title challenger with deep experience at the highest level. His game revolves around pressure flurries, calf kicks, and opportunistic wrestling. Against Matheus Nicolau at UFC 298, Perez showed a refined feint-heavy approach—pumping non-threatening jabs while taking lateral steps to force resets, then attacking during transitions. That performance earned him a second-round knockout and demonstrated his evolved striking toolkit.

Signature Techniques: - Pressure Flurries with Lateral Movement: Against Nicolau, Perez used constant hand feints and small lateral steps to disrupt the counter-fighter's timing. He'd step right, force Nicolau to turn, then run in with combinations. This approach worked beautifully until he caught Nicolau against the fence with a right hand to the body followed by a right hook to the chin. - Calf Kicks: His TKO of Jussier Formiga at UFC 250 came via leg kicks—just the 11th such finish in UFC history. Perez landed 51% of his significant strikes to the legs, systematically compromising Formiga's mobility before the finish. - Reactive Takedowns: Perez's All-American wrestling background allows him to mix shots off his striking. Against Mokaev, he showed solid defensive wrestling and threatened ninja chokes from front headlock positions.

Technical Evolution: Perez has developed a more diverse feinting package since his title shot loss to Figueiredo. His striking looked sharper against Nicolau with better combination flow and cage-cutting. However, his most recent fight against Asu Almabayev ended in a third-round guillotine submission after Perez shot while hurt—a recurring pattern.

Alex Perez's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Reactive Takedowns When Hurt: This is the critical flaw. Against Almabayev, Perez got rocked by a spinning wheel kick and immediately shot for a takedown rather than backing away. Almabayev snapped on a standing guillotine and finished him at 0:22 of round three. This mirrors his title fight loss to Figueiredo, where he rolled into a guillotine after scrambling from a leg lock attempt. When Perez gets hurt, his instinct is to shoot—and elite submission artists punish this.

2. Guillotine/Choke Susceptibility: Three of Perez's last five losses came via choke submissions (Figueiredo, Pantoja, Almabayev). His head positioning during scrambles consistently exposes his neck. Against Pantoja, he got caught in a rear-naked choke/neck crank after engaging in a striking exchange where Pantoja ducked to his back.

3. Forward Posture Overcommitment: Against Tatsuro Taira, Perez leaned excessively forward when pressing, placing his head ahead of his hips. Taira exploited this with uppercuts and double collar tie entries, eventually securing back control that led to a knee injury finish.

Charles Johnson's Breakdown

Charles Johnson is a long, athletic flyweight who has found his groove after a rocky start to his UFC career. Standing 5'9" with a 70" reach, he's unusually tall for the division and uses that length to work from the outside with kicks and stance-switching combinations.

Signature Techniques: - Switch Cross to Southpaw: Johnson throws a left hand while stepping through with his right foot, transitioning into southpaw mid-combination. Against Jake Hadley, he used this technique to circumvent Hadley's jab parry defense, eventually landing a knockdown when his right straight sailed underneath Hadley's elbow parry. - Counter Uppercuts with Shifting: Against Azat Maksum, Johnson showed sophisticated striking—slipping punches, shifting through with a left straight into southpaw, then following with a right uppercut. This shifting mid-counter approach created angles that troubled the dangerous prospect. - Devastating Right Uppercut: His knockout of Joshua Van at UFC Denver came via an "impossibly long right uppercut" that detonated on Van's chin after an overhand right rocked him. Johnson's power is real—he's dropped his last several opponents.

Technical Evolution: Johnson has transformed from a fighter who struggled against pressure (losses to Durden, Osbourne, Temirov) into someone who can impose his will. His third-round rally against Zhumagulov showed adaptability—he completely shifted from counter-fighting to aggressive cage-cutting when down on the scorecards. His knockout of Lone'er Kavanagh demonstrated his durability and ability to fire back immediately when hurt.

Charles Johnson's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Slow Starts/First Round Passivity: Johnson's first rounds are consistently his worst. Against Temirov, he lost a decision largely because he couldn't get started early. Against Zhumagulov, he lost the first two rounds before rallying in the third. His corner has to constantly push him to increase volume early.

2. Susceptibility to Pressure Fighters: When opponents walk him down with volume, Johnson struggles to establish his range. Zhumagulov's pressure gave him significant trouble in rounds one and two. Durden's wrestling completely neutralized him for three rounds. Opponents who don't let him work at distance can take early rounds.

3. Takedown Defense Gaps: Despite exceptional scrambling ability (he popped back up repeatedly against Mokaev), Johnson gets taken down frequently. His 49% takedown defense ratio suggests he can be put on his back—though his ability to return to his feet mitigates this.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents an interesting clash of tendencies. Perez wants to pressure forward with flurries and mix in wrestling, while Johnson prefers to work from range with his length advantage and stance-switching.

Perez's Path to Victory: - His calf kicks could compromise Johnson's mobility and stance-switching - If he can back Johnson to the fence, his pressure flurries become dangerous - His wrestling threat might force Johnson to respect the takedown, opening up striking entries

Johnson's Path to Victory: - His five-inch reach advantage (70" vs 65") allows him to work from the outside - If Perez shoots while hurt or overcommits forward, Johnson's uppercuts could be devastating - Johnson's scrambling ability should negate Perez's wrestling if fights go to the ground

The critical question: Can Perez's pressure overwhelm Johnson early, or will Johnson's length and counter-punching catch Perez leaning forward? Given Perez's pattern of getting submitted when hurt and Johnson's knockout power, the longer this fight goes, the more dangerous it becomes for Perez.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Perez typically starts fast with pressure and calf kicks. Johnson's slow starts are well-documented—his first rounds are "always terrible." Expect Perez to have early success walking Johnson down and landing leg kicks. However, Johnson's durability means he can weather storms.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: This is where Johnson finds his rhythm. Against Hadley, he was "paralyzed" in round one by jab defense but adapted with stance-switching to find openings. Against Maksum, he corrected defensive errors after a rough first round to dominate later. If Perez can't hurt Johnson early, the tide may turn.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): This is a three-round fight, but Johnson's cardio is a strength from his LFA championship experience. Perez has shown cardio issues in extended fights and has been finished in round three multiple times (Almabayev, Taira). If this reaches the third round competitive, Johnson's late-round surge becomes a factor.

Analysis and Key Points

• Perez's submission vulnerability is alarming. Three of his last five losses came via choke. Johnson isn't primarily a grappler, but if Perez shoots while hurt, he's putting himself in danger.
• Johnson's reach advantage is significant. Five inches at flyweight is massive. Perez will need to close distance effectively, but his forward lean creates openings for uppercuts.
• Perez was recently submitted. The Almabayev loss came just months ago via guillotine after shooting while hurt—the same pattern from his Figueiredo loss. This is a red flag.
• Johnson's knockout power is real. The Van knockout showed he can end fights with single shots. Perez's forward pressure could walk him into something.
• Perez has lost 4 of his last 5 fights. All losses came against top competition, but the downward trend is concerning. His 33% recent win percentage reflects this decline.

Understanding the Prediction

The model favors Johnson despite Perez being the more experienced fighter. Key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 9.0 points. Johnson is the betting favorite (-205), and the model adjusts for this.
• Reach decreased the score by 3.0 points. Johnson's 70" reach versus Perez's 65" represents a significant advantage the model weighs.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0 points. Perez's 33% recent win rate versus Johnson's 67% reflects their diverging trajectories.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 2.0 points. Johnson's willingness to shoot (2.74 per fight) suggests he can threaten wrestling if needed.
• Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0 point. Johnson's +23.67 differential versus Perez's +13.62 shows he's landing with more effect.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

Alex Perez: The model correctly predicted his losses to Almabayev (0.68 confidence), Taira (0.70), Mokaev (0.71), and Pantoja (0.73). It incorrectly picked Nicolau over Perez (0.61 confidence) when Perez scored the knockout upset. The model has been right about Perez losing to elite competition but missed his upset win.

Charles Johnson: The model has struggled with Johnson. It correctly predicted his wins over Sumudaerji (0.70), Flick (0.81), and Zhumagulov (0.58), and his losses to Durden (0.72) and Osbourne (0.75). However, it incorrectly picked against Johnson in four fights—Van (0.65), Hadley (0.53), Maksum (0.66), and Kavanagh (0.54). Johnson has repeatedly outperformed expectations.

This is concerning—the model has underestimated Johnson multiple times. But it's also been right about Perez's decline against top competition.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI picks Charles Johnson to win. Perez's pattern of getting submitted when hurt, combined with Johnson's knockout power and reach advantage, creates a dangerous equation for the veteran. Johnson's slow starts give Perez a window early, but if this fight reaches the third round competitive, Johnson's late-round surge and Perez's submission vulnerability become decisive factors. The model's low confidence score (15) reflects how close this fight is, but Johnson's upward trajectory versus Perez's recent struggles tips the scales.